{"id":"dev-est-cmaes-receding","batch":"cmaes-dev","code":"DEV","title":"Development","nation":{"iso3":"EST","name":"Estonia","region":"europe","iso2":"EE"},"horizon":4,"position_year":2026,"n_simulations":2,"seed_base":1,"elasticity":"sample","probe_seeds":1,"objective":{"key":"index","label":"Capability index","better":"higher"},"versions":{"model":"0.2.0","graph":"0.2.0","params":"0.1.1","cmaes":"0.1.0","cma":"4.5.0"},"scenario":"stochastic","greedy":"dev-est-greedy","representative":{"simulation_id":1,"seed":2},"value_start":11.487,"value_p50":11.649,"value_p10":11.537,"value_p90":11.762,"groups":[{"id":"hard.critical_technology.advanced_materials_and_manufacturing","name":"Advanced Materials & Manufacturing","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.energy_technologies","name":"Energy Technologies","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.semiconductors_and_advanced_computing","name":"Semiconductors & Advanced Computing","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.artificial_intelligence","name":"Artificial Intelligence","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.quantum_technologies","name":"Quantum Technologies","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.connectivity_cyber_and_trust_technologies","name":"Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.sensing_timing_and_navigation","name":"Sensing, Timing & Navigation","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.robotics_and_autonomous_systems","name":"Robotics & Autonomous Systems","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.biotechnology_and_health_technologies","name":"Biotechnology & Health Technologies","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.critical_technology.space_technologies","name":"Space Technologies","domain":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.resource_infrastructure","name":"Resource Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.agriculture_and_food_infrastructure","name":"Agriculture & Food Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.energy_infrastructure","name":"Energy Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.water_sanitation_and_waste_infrastructure","name":"Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.advanced_manufacturing","name":"Advanced Manufacturing","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.transport_infrastructure","name":"Transport Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.communications_and_digital_infrastructure","name":"Communications & Digital Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.financial_infrastructure","name":"Financial Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.social_infrastructure","name":"Social Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.strategic_infrastructure.space_aerospace_and_defence_infrastructure","name":"Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure","domain":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"hard.national_security.force_generation_and_mobilisation","name":"Force Generation & Mobilisation","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.intelligence_and_assessment","name":"Intelligence & Assessment","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.joint_command_projection_and_sustainment","name":"Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.land_power","name":"Land Power","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.maritime_power","name":"Maritime Power","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.air_power","name":"Air Power","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.strategic_strike_and_missile_defence","name":"Strategic Strike & Missile Defence","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.space_operations","name":"Space Operations","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.cyber_and_electromagnetic_operations","name":"Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"hard.national_security.nuclear_deterrence","name":"Nuclear Deterrence","domain":"National Security"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.early_childhood_development","name":"Early Childhood Development","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.foundational_education","name":"Foundational Education","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.advanced_education","name":"Advanced Education","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.technical_and_vocational_skills","name":"Technical & Vocational Skills","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.digital_and_ai_competence","name":"Digital & AI Competence","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.lifelong_learning_and_reskilling","name":"Lifelong Learning & Reskilling","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.research_talent_and_knowledge_creation","name":"Research Talent & Knowledge Creation","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.population_health","name":"Population Health","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.human_capital.health_system_capability","name":"Health System Capability","domain":"Human Capital"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.diplomatic_statecraft_and_global_networks","name":"Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.alliances_and_security_cooperation","name":"Alliances & Security Cooperation","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.development_cooperation_and_global_assistance","name":"Development Cooperation & Global Assistance","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.culture_language_and_education_diplomacy","name":"Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.diaspora_and_global_communities","name":"Diaspora & Global Communities","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.information_and_influence.information_environment_and_strategic_communication","name":"Information Environment & Strategic Communication","domain":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.political_institutions_and_civic_participation","name":"Political Institutions & Civic Participation","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.justice_system_and_fundamental_rights","name":"Justice System & Fundamental Rights","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.internal_security_and_order","name":"Internal Security & Order","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.regulatory_governance_and_strategic_controls","name":"Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.government_effectiveness_and_public_administration","name":"Government Effectiveness & Public Administration","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.public_integrity_and_anti_corruption","name":"Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.transparency_oversight_and_accountability","name":"Transparency, Oversight & Accountability","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"soft.governance_and_integrity.national_resilience_and_crisis_management","name":"National Resilience & Crisis Management","domain":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.monetary_and_currency_capability","name":"Monetary & Currency Capability","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.fiscal_capacity_and_public_finance","name":"Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.financial_system_depth_and_access","name":"Financial System Depth & Access","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.financial_regulation_and_integrity","name":"Financial Regulation & Integrity","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.financial_stability_and_crisis_management","name":"Financial Stability & Crisis Management","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.financial_strength.sovereign_capital_and_external_financial_power","name":"Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power","domain":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.economic_output_and_productivity","name":"Economic Output & Productivity","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.labour_and_employment","name":"Labour & Employment","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.industrial_and_sectoral_base","name":"Industrial & Sectoral Base","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.structural_transformation_and_complexity","name":"Structural Transformation & Complexity","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.business_dynamism_and_entrepreneurship","name":"Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.innovation_and_commercialisation","name":"Innovation & Commercialisation","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.production_and_innovation.technology_adoption_and_diffusion","name":"Technology Adoption & Diffusion","domain":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.trade_facilitation_and_logistics","name":"Trade Facilitation & Logistics","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.trade_policy_and_market_access","name":"Trade Policy & Market Access","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.digital_and_services_trade","name":"Digital & Services Trade","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.investment_attraction_and_projection","name":"Investment Attraction & Projection","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.export_capability_and_sophistication","name":"Export Capability & Sophistication","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.global_value_chain_position","name":"Global Value Chain Position","domain":"Trade & Investment"},{"id":"economic.trade_and_investment.economic_leverage_and_dependence","name":"Economic Leverage & Dependence","domain":"Trade & Investment"}],"domains":[{"id":"critical_technology","name":"Critical Technology"},{"id":"strategic_infrastructure","name":"Strategic Infrastructure"},{"id":"national_security","name":"National Security"},{"id":"human_capital","name":"Human Capital"},{"id":"information_and_influence","name":"Information & Influence"},{"id":"governance_and_integrity","name":"Governance & Integrity"},{"id":"financial_strength","name":"Financial Strength"},{"id":"production_and_innovation","name":"Production & Innovation"},{"id":"trade_and_investment","name":"Trade & Investment"}],"fan":{"bands":[[0,11.487,11.487,11.487],[1,11.531,11.533,11.534],[2,11.343,11.459,11.574],[3,11.439,11.549,11.659],[4,11.537,11.649,11.762]],"greedy":[[0,11.487],[1,11.556],[2,11.467],[3,11.541],[4,11.617]],"shock_share":[[2,0.5]]},"regret":[[0,0,0,0,0,0],[1,-0.0237,-0.025,-0.0237,-0.0223,0],[2,-0.0087,-0.0187,-0.0087,0.0012,0.5],[3,0.0077,-0.0071,0.0077,0.0225,0.5],[4,0.0323,0.0117,0.0323,0.0529,1]],"allocation":{"rounds":[1,2,3,4],"domains":[{"id":"critical_technology","name":"Critical Technology","credits":[17.5,11.7,5.8,5.6]},{"id":"strategic_infrastructure","name":"Strategic Infrastructure","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"national_security","name":"National Security","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"human_capital","name":"Human Capital","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"information_and_influence","name":"Information & Influence","credits":[23.3,29,52.4,52]},{"id":"governance_and_integrity","name":"Governance & Integrity","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"financial_strength","name":"Financial Strength","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"production_and_innovation","name":"Production & Innovation","credits":[0,0,0,0]},{"id":"trade_and_investment","name":"Trade & Investment","credits":[17.3,17.3,0,0]}],"modes":[{"id":"build","name":"Build","credits":[5.8,0,0,0]},{"id":"buy","name":"Buy","credits":[11.6,11.7,5.9,28.3]},{"id":"partner","name":"Partner","credits":[40.7,46.3,52.3,29.3]}]},"ribbon":[{"id":"critical_technology","name":"Critical Technology","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"strategic_infrastructure","name":"Strategic Infrastructure","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"national_security","name":"National Security","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"human_capital","name":"Human Capital","shares":[[0,0,0,1,0],[1,0,0,1,0],[2,0,0,1,0],[3,0,0,1,0],[4,0,0,1,0]]},{"id":"information_and_influence","name":"Information & Influence","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"governance_and_integrity","name":"Governance & Integrity","shares":[[0,0,0,1,0],[1,0,0,1,0],[2,0,0,0.5,0.5],[3,0,0,0.5,0.5],[4,0,0,0.5,0.5]]},{"id":"financial_strength","name":"Financial Strength","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"production_and_innovation","name":"Production & Innovation","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]},{"id":"trade_and_investment","name":"Trade & Investment","shares":[[0,0,0,0,1],[1,0,0,0,1],[2,0,0,0,1],[3,0,0,0,1],[4,0,0,0,1]]}],"radar":{"domains":["Critical Technology","Strategic Infrastructure","National Security","Human Capital","Information & Influence","Governance & Integrity","Financial Strength","Production & Innovation","Trade & Investment"],"start":[5.999,10.862,7.542,14.556,10.483,15.46,13.078,12.81,12.596],"end":[6.383,10.658,7.478,14.418,12.26,15.352,12.838,12.634,12.82],"greedy_end":[7.826,10.661,7.483,14.418,10.698,15.352,12.86,12.862,12.392]},"waterfall":[{"kind":"start","label":"2026","value":11.487},{"kind":"decision","label":"2030 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (12 credits)","value":0.0086},{"kind":"decision","label":"2030 partner Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (12 credits)","value":0.01},{"kind":"decision","label":"2030 partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy (12 credits)","value":0.0094},{"kind":"decision","label":"2030 partner Alliances & Security Cooperation (12 credits)","value":0.0105},{"kind":"decision","label":"2029 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (12 credits)","value":0.0173},{"kind":"other","label":"Everything else","value":0.2467},{"kind":"end","label":"2030","value":11.79}],"fragility":[{"g":29,"name":"Nuclear Deterrence","domain":"National Security","score":0,"tier":6,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":31,"name":"Foundational Education","domain":"Human Capital","score":16.28,"tier":3,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":34,"name":"Digital & AI Competence","domain":"Human Capital","score":16.28,"tier":3,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":49,"name":"Government Effectiveness & Public Administration","domain":"Governance & Integrity","score":17.07,"tier":4,"up":true,"down":true},{"g":56,"name":"Financial Regulation & Integrity","domain":"Financial Strength","score":13.9,"tier":9,"up":false,"down":true},{"g":62,"name":"Structural Transformation & Complexity","domain":"Production & Innovation","score":12.3,"tier":5,"up":false,"down":true},{"g":67,"name":"Trade Policy & Market Access","domain":"Trade & Investment","score":13.11,"tier":8,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":68,"name":"Digital & Services Trade","domain":"Trade & Investment","score":13.59,"tier":8,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":71,"name":"Global Value Chain Position","domain":"Trade & Investment","score":12.55,"tier":8,"up":true,"down":false},{"g":72,"name":"Economic Leverage & Dependence","domain":"Trade & Investment","score":11.35,"tier":8,"up":true,"down":false}],"simulations":[{"simulation_id":0,"seed":1,"value":11.79,"start":11.487,"index":11.79,"tier1":0,"rank":30,"shocks":0,"upsides":0,"greedy":11.783},{"simulation_id":1,"seed":2,"value":11.509,"start":11.487,"index":11.509,"tier1":0,"rank":33,"shocks":1,"upsides":0,"greedy":11.451}],"report":"# Estonia: evolution strategy (cma-es), 4 years (dev-est-cmaes-receding)\n\n*Batch cmaes-dev. Model 0.2.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.1. 2 simulations, seeds 1 to 2; probes on 1. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.*\n\n## Headline\n\nEstonia played 4 rounds from 2026 under the evolution strategy (cma-es) method, with stochastic events, 2 times. Its capability index moved from 11.49 to a median of 11.65 (+0.16), with 90 per cent of simulations between 11.52 and 11.78 [experiment_objectives].\n\n## Starting position\n\nIn 2026 the nation ranks 33 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 27. Its base income is 390 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.\n\n## What was decided\n\nA simulation spent a median of 232 credits on actions. The five groups that took most were Space Technologies (partner, 35 credits, 7.5 per cent); Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (buy, 35 credits, 7.5 per cent); Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (partner, 29 credits, 12.7 per cent); Alliances & Security Cooperation (partner, 29 credits, 12.6 per cent); Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (partner, 24 credits, 5.1 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 69 per cent, buy 27 per cent, build 3 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.140, and the most repeated action appeared in 75 per cent of rounds.\nThe leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Information & Influence [experiment_spend_by_period].\n\n## What the world did\n\nA median simulation saw 0 shocks and 0 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S06 (1 firings in 1 simulations, −21.5 points each) [experiment_shocks]. \nThe groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Trade Facilitation & Logistics −0.41; Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks −0.37; Monetary & Currency Capability −0.35; Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −0.34 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].\nThe edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+0.61 points); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Economic Leverage & Dependence (+0.25 points); Space Technologies to Sensing, Timing & Navigation (+0.09 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].\n\n## Where it ended\n\nAt 2030 the median rank is 32 (5th to 95th percentile 30 to 33), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 28; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 827 [experiment_objectives].\n\n## Why\n\nWithout shocks the index ends 0.000 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 0.000 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].\nHolding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.302: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].\nRemoving any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.017 and −0.009, for example 2030 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (12 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.\nThe replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].\n\n## Surprises\n\n- same_action (warn): the most repeated action (group and mode) appears in a median 75% of rounds.\n- fitness_improved (warn): 38 per cent of 8 optimisations improved their hold-out fitness or stopped cleanly on stagnation; mean gain +0.0031 in reward units.\n- fitness_noise (warn): in the final generation the noise over shock seeds exceeded the best-minus-mean gap in 88 per cent of optimisations (mean noise 0.1884 against a mean gap 0.0230); population 4, 2 shock seeds.\n- The simulation furthest from the median (seed 1) ends +0.14 from it, with 0 shocks and 0 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].\n\n## Comparison\n\nThis is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.\nNo backcast comparison: this experiment does not start from a historical position [experiment_against_history].\n\n## The optimisation\n\nCMA-ES 0.1.0 (the cma package 4.5.0) with the rule encoding (26 numbers over the full horizon), receding, population 4, up to 3 generations a round, warm-started, stagnation stop at 30, 2 shock seeds a generation (common random numbers, redrawn each generation) and 2 hold-out seeds; objective index; plans scored under the stochastic scenario; started from the greedy plan; a single action capped at the large chunk.\n8 optimisations ran a mean of 3 generations (8 stopped on budget) in a mean of 0 seconds each; the hold-out index of the best plan rose by a mean of +0.0031 from the starting plan [experiment_cmaes_convergence_by_round].\nAfter shocks, the credits actually played were 100 per cent of those the first plan intended, and 0 per cent of realised actions differed from the plan [experiment_cmaes_planned_vs_realised_by_round].\nAgainst the greedy experiment with the same seeds (dev-est-greedy), the plan's index at the horizon is +0.032 on average (10th to 90th percentile +0.012 to +0.053), better in 100 per cent of seeds [experiment_mcts_regret_by_round].\nAgainst the tree search on the same nation, horizon, objective and seeds (dev-est-mcts-index), the plan's index at the horizon is +0.052 on average, better in 100 per cent of seeds [experiment_cmaes_vs_mcts_by_round].\nAllocation similarity by round (cosine, credits by group and mode): with greedy 0.29, with the tree search 0.24 (tree search with greedy 0.86) [experiment_cmaes_similarity_by_round].\nIn the final generations the noise over shock seeds was 0.1884 against a best-minus-mean gap of 0.0230; the noise was the larger in 88 per cent of optimisations [experiment_cmaes_noise].\n","probes":[{"probe":"hold","label":"Hold instead of the method","example":"","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.3024,"d_score_sum":-19.84,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"no_shocks","label":"No shocks","example":"","simulations":1,"d_index":0,"d_score_sum":0,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"replay","label":"Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)","example":"","simulations":1,"d_index":0,"d_score_sum":0,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"drop_decision_1","label":"Without the 1st largest decision","example":"2030 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (12 credits)","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.0086,"d_score_sum":-0.46,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"drop_decision_2","label":"Without the 2nd largest decision","example":"2030 partner Development Cooperation & Global Assistance (12 credits)","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.01,"d_score_sum":-0.54,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"drop_decision_3","label":"Without the 3rd largest decision","example":"2030 partner Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy (12 credits)","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.0094,"d_score_sum":-0.51,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"drop_decision_4","label":"Without the 4th largest decision","example":"2030 partner Alliances & Security Cooperation (12 credits)","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.0105,"d_score_sum":-0.57,"d_tier1":0},{"probe":"drop_decision_5","label":"Without the 5th largest decision","example":"2029 partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks (12 credits)","simulations":1,"d_index":-0.0173,"d_score_sum":-0.93,"d_tier1":0}],"checks":[{"check":"credits_conserved","category":"invariant","status":"pass","detail":"largest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 8.5e-14"},{"check":"scores_in_bounds","category":"invariant","status":"pass","detail":"scores range 0.000 to 17.400"},{"check":"no_nans","category":"invariant","status":"pass","detail":"0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives"},{"check":"probe_replay_reproduces","category":"invariant","status":"pass","detail":"the recorded actions played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (1 simulations)"},{"check":"ledger_balances","category":"invariant","status":"pass","detail":"the edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.5e-08 points"},{"check":"move_without_shock","category":"plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"largest one-round change in a group with no shock landing: 1.46 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3"},{"check":"tier_jump","category":"plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"largest gain in one domain within five years: 0 tiers (0 simulations above 2); tiers are reported, not an objective"},{"check":"all_tier1_from_outside_top10","category":"plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"starting rank 33; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains"},{"check":"saturation_high","category":"saturation","status":"pass","detail":"0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)"},{"check":"saturation_low","category":"saturation","status":"pass","detail":"0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)"},{"check":"spend_concentration","category":"degeneracy","status":"pass","detail":"median concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.140; most funded group hard.critical_technology.space_technologies"},{"check":"same_action","category":"degeneracy","status":"warn","detail":"the most repeated action (group and mode) appears in a median 75% of rounds"}],"runtime":{"elapsed_s":1.5,"round_us":141475},"batch_title":"CMA-ES development batch","batch_description":"A tiny CMA-ES batch (one nation, four rounds, two seeds, a population of four for a few generations) to exercise the tables, the checks, the report and the site's CMA-ES pages while the real experiments run. Not evidence of 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