{ "version": "1.0.0", "name": "GINC Outcomes", "intro": "The points in the capability framework where something can break or step up. A scenario is a cause with effects across many capabilities. An outcome is one effect, isolated: a named place in the framework crossing a threshold, whatever caused it. Outcomes are where the reverse stress test starts.", "definition": "An outcome is defined on a basket of capability groups. A failure outcome is met when the basket's mean score falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when it rises half a band.", "scopes": [ { "key": "domain", "label": "Domain", "note": "Set by rule: the whole of a capability domain falling a band, and rising half a band. Two for each of the nine domains." }, { "key": "named", "label": "Named", "note": "A narrower isolation point: two to four capability groups, inside one domain or across several. Proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut." } ], "coverage": { "groups": 73, "in_named_baskets": 72 }, "outcomes": [ { "id": "O01", "key": "critical-technology-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Broad fall in critical technology", "short": "Critical Technology: fall", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "energy-technologies", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "artificial-intelligence", "quantum-technologies", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies", "sensing-timing-and-navigation", "robotics-and-autonomous-systems", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "space-technologies" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O02", "key": "critical-technology-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Broad rise in critical technology", "short": "Critical Technology: rise", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "energy-technologies", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "artificial-intelligence", "quantum-technologies", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies", "sensing-timing-and-navigation", "robotics-and-autonomous-systems", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies", "space-technologies" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O03", "key": "strategic-infrastructure-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Broad fall in strategic infrastructure", "short": "Strategic Infrastructure: fall", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "resource-infrastructure", "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "energy-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "advanced-manufacturing", "transport-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "financial-infrastructure", "social-infrastructure", "space-aerospace-and-defence-infrastructure" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O04", "key": "strategic-infrastructure-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Broad rise in strategic infrastructure", "short": "Strategic Infrastructure: rise", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "resource-infrastructure", "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "energy-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure", "advanced-manufacturing", "transport-infrastructure", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "financial-infrastructure", "social-infrastructure", "space-aerospace-and-defence-infrastructure" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O05", "key": "national-security-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "national-security", "title": "Broad fall in national security", "short": "National Security: fall", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "force-generation-and-mobilisation", "intelligence-and-assessment", "joint-command-projection-and-sustainment", "land-power", "maritime-power", "air-power", "strategic-strike-and-missile-defence", "space-operations", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "nuclear-deterrence" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O06", "key": "national-security-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "national-security", "title": "Broad rise in national security", "short": "National Security: rise", "definition": "The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "force-generation-and-mobilisation", "intelligence-and-assessment", "joint-command-projection-and-sustainment", "land-power", "maritime-power", "air-power", "strategic-strike-and-missile-defence", "space-operations", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "nuclear-deterrence" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O07", "key": "human-capital-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Broad fall in human capital", "short": "Human Capital: fall", "definition": "The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "early-childhood-development", "foundational-education", "advanced-education", "technical-and-vocational-skills", "digital-and-ai-competence", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation", "population-health", "health-system-capability" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O08", "key": "human-capital-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Broad rise in human capital", "short": "Human Capital: rise", "definition": "The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "early-childhood-development", "foundational-education", "advanced-education", "technical-and-vocational-skills", "digital-and-ai-competence", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation", "population-health", "health-system-capability" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O09", "key": "information-and-influence-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Broad fall in information and influence", "short": "Information and Influence: fall", "definition": "The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "development-cooperation-and-global-assistance", "culture-language-and-education-diplomacy", "diaspora-and-global-communities", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O10", "key": "information-and-influence-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Broad rise in information and influence", "short": "Information and Influence: rise", "definition": "The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "development-cooperation-and-global-assistance", "culture-language-and-education-diplomacy", "diaspora-and-global-communities", "information-environment-and-strategic-communication" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O11", "key": "governance-and-integrity-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Broad fall in governance and integrity", "short": "Governance and Integrity: fall", "definition": "The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "internal-security-and-order", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O12", "key": "governance-and-integrity-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Broad rise in governance and integrity", "short": "Governance and Integrity: rise", "definition": "The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "internal-security-and-order", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O13", "key": "financial-strength-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "financial-strength", "title": "Broad fall in financial strength", "short": "Financial Strength: fall", "definition": "The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "monetary-and-currency-capability", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "financial-system-depth-and-access", "financial-regulation-and-integrity", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O14", "key": "financial-strength-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "financial-strength", "title": "Broad rise in financial strength", "short": "Financial Strength: rise", "definition": "The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "monetary-and-currency-capability", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance", "financial-system-depth-and-access", "financial-regulation-and-integrity", "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O15", "key": "production-and-innovation-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "production-and-innovation", "title": "Broad fall in production and innovation", "short": "Production and Innovation: fall", "definition": "The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "economic-output-and-productivity", "labour-and-employment", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "business-dynamism-and-entrepreneurship", "innovation-and-commercialisation", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O16", "key": "production-and-innovation-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "production-and-innovation", "title": "Broad rise in production and innovation", "short": "Production and Innovation: rise", "definition": "The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "economic-output-and-productivity", "labour-and-employment", "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "business-dynamism-and-entrepreneurship", "innovation-and-commercialisation", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O17", "key": "trade-and-investment-falls", "kind": "failure", "scope": "domain", "domain": "trade-and-investment", "title": "Broad fall in trade and investment", "short": "Trade and Investment: fall", "definition": "The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.", "why": "A fall across a whole domain cannot be made good from inside it, and shows in the national index.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "trade-policy-and-market-access", "digital-and-services-trade", "investment-attraction-and-projection", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "global-value-chain-position", "economic-leverage-and-dependence" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O18", "key": "trade-and-investment-rises", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "domain", "domain": "trade-and-investment", "title": "Broad rise in trade and investment", "short": "Trade and Investment: rise", "definition": "The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.", "why": "A rise across a whole domain is what moves a nation up a tier.", "signs": [], "basket": [ "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "trade-policy-and-market-access", "digital-and-services-trade", "investment-attraction-and-projection", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "global-value-chain-position", "economic-leverage-and-dependence" ], "support": null, "from": [] }, { "id": "O19", "key": "loss-of-advanced-technology-base", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Loss of advanced technology base", "short": "Loss of advanced technology base", "definition": "The nation can no longer make, obtain or maintain the advanced chips, materials and space and quantum systems that its industry, services and defence are built on.", "why": "Everything digital and much of defence rests on technology that few places can supply.", "signs": [ "Supply of advanced chips is interrupted for months", "Critical programmes are delayed for want of components", "Specialist firms and engineers leave" ], "basket": [ "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing", "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "quantum-technologies", "space-technologies" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "B: Semiconductor foundry collapse", "C: Strategic technology dependence" ], "decision": "Each member named a different failure in critical technology. Two of them turn on advanced computing, and are merged here; the third, a loss of space and sensing, is covered by the space outcome and by strategic awareness." }, { "id": "O20", "key": "assured-space-services", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Assured space services", "short": "Assured space services", "definition": "The nation has dependable capacity and access to operate and protect the space services required for essential communications, observation, navigation and timing.", "why": "Assured space services improve civilian continuity, security awareness and control over essential technical functions.", "signs": [ "Essential space services meet verified continuity requirements", "Satellite operations and replacement arrangements meet national needs", "Navigation and timing services satisfy demanding reliability standards" ], "basket": [ "space-technologies", "sensing-timing-and-navigation", "space-aerospace-and-defence-infrastructure", "space-operations" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Independent space capability", "C: Assured space services" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O21", "key": "frontier-ai-and-compute", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Frontier AI and compute", "short": "Frontier AI and compute", "definition": "The nation can develop, deploy and sustain advanced computing and artificial intelligence systems for a wider range of economically and strategically valuable uses.", "why": "Stronger computing capability supports productivity, scientific work and control over essential digital systems.", "signs": [ "More demanding workloads run on dependable computing capacity", "Domestic AI systems meet independently tested performance standards", "Advanced computing expertise supports sustained deployment" ], "basket": [ "artificial-intelligence", "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Frontier AI and compute", "B: AI and compute efficiency", "C: Advanced computing strength" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O22", "key": "higher-value-manufacturing", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "critical-technology", "title": "Higher-value manufacturing", "short": "Higher-value manufacturing", "definition": "The industrial base can repeatedly produce more complex, higher-value goods with advanced materials, capable facilities and deeper domestic production expertise.", "why": "More capable manufacturing strengthens earnings, supplier networks and national production options.", "signs": [ "Manufacturers meet more demanding quality and complexity standards", "Domestic value added rises in advanced production", "Local suppliers qualify for higher-value production stages" ], "basket": [ "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing", "advanced-manufacturing", "structural-transformation-and-complexity", "robotics-and-autonomous-systems" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Higher-value manufacturing capability", "C: Higher-value manufacturing capability" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O23", "key": "collapse-in-energy-security", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Collapse in energy security", "short": "Collapse in energy security", "definition": "Reliable and affordable energy supplies no longer meet essential household, industrial and public service needs.", "why": "Energy insecurity threatens essential services, productive activity and basic living standards.", "signs": [ "Essential services experience persistent power or fuel shortages", "Industrial energy requirements routinely remain unmet", "Household energy affordability deteriorates across income groups" ], "basket": [ "energy-infrastructure", "resource-infrastructure", "energy-technologies" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Collapse in energy security", "C: Collapse in energy security" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O24", "key": "failure-of-digital-lifelines", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Failure of digital lifelines", "short": "Failure of digital lifelines", "definition": "Essential communications, digital payments and trusted electronic services can no longer operate reliably at national scale.", "why": "Digital discontinuity interrupts ordinary transactions, administration and the coordination of essential services.", "signs": [ "Essential networks repeatedly breach availability standards", "Electronic payments remain inaccessible to substantial populations", "Digital identities and signatures cannot be reliably verified" ], "basket": [ "communications-and-digital-infrastructure", "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies", "financial-infrastructure" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Failure of digital lifelines", "B: Digital infrastructure failure", "C: Failure of digital lifelines" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O25", "key": "food-and-water-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Food and water failure", "short": "Food and water failure", "definition": "Food supplies and safe water services no longer reliably meet basic population needs across substantial parts of the nation.", "why": "Failure of basic provisioning threatens life, public health and social order.", "signs": [ "Staple food availability falls below minimum national requirements", "Unsafe drinking water becomes widespread", "Sanitation services persistently fail minimum operating standards" ], "basket": [ "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Food and water failure", "C: Food and water failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O26", "key": "reliable-low-cost-energy", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Reliable low-cost energy", "short": "Reliable low-cost energy", "definition": "The energy system supplies dependable power at sustainably lower cost while meeting stronger environmental and operating standards.", "why": "Affordable reliable energy improves household welfare, industrial competitiveness and the viability of new investment.", "signs": [ "Delivered energy costs fall without reliability losses", "Firm supply meets demand with adequate operating reserves", "Emissions intensity falls across delivered energy" ], "basket": [ "energy-technologies", "energy-infrastructure" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Reliable low-cost energy", "B: Energy system resilience", "C: Reliable low-cost energy" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O27", "key": "secure-food-and-water-supply", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "title": "Secure food and water supply", "short": "Secure food and water supply", "definition": "Farming, storage and water systems produce and deliver more with less, so that food and clean water are reliably available and affordable through bad seasons.", "why": "Food and water security frees income, steadies politics and removes a recurring source of crisis.", "signs": [ "Staple yields rise while water use for each tonne falls", "Losses after harvest fall sharply", "Safe water and sanitation reach nearly all households" ], "basket": [ "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure", "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure" ], "support": 1, "from": [ "B: Food system efficiency" ], "decision": "Held by one member, as food system efficiency. Kept in place of a second trade-logistics outcome, held by two, so that food and water have a prosperity outcome as well as a failure one; transport went into the rupture in trade and supply." }, { "id": "O28", "key": "defence-readiness-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "national-security", "title": "Defence readiness failure", "short": "Defence readiness failure", "definition": "The armed forces cannot generate, command and sustain the deployable conventional capability required for their assigned national defence tasks.", "why": "Nominal forces provide little protection when personnel, equipment and support cannot sustain required operations.", "signs": [ "Deployable units fall below approved readiness requirements", "Mobilisation exercises fail to produce required combat-ready formations", "Joint exercises fail essential command and sustainment standards" ], "basket": [ "force-generation-and-mobilisation", "land-power", "air-power", "maritime-power" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Loss of conventional defence", "C: Defence readiness failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O29", "key": "loss-of-strategic-deterrence", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "national-security", "title": "Loss of strategic deterrence", "short": "Loss of strategic deterrence", "definition": "The safe, controlled and dependable operation of the nation's nuclear deterrent and associated warning systems can no longer be assured.", "why": "Unreliable nuclear control and warning undermine deterrence and increase the risk of catastrophic misjudgement.", "signs": [ "Strategic warning systems persistently fail reliability requirements", "Deterrent availability falls below approved operational requirements", "Weapons custody or command authorisation cannot be independently verified" ], "basket": [ "nuclear-deterrence", "strategic-strike-and-missile-defence", "space-operations" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Loss of nuclear surety", "C: Loss of nuclear surety" ], "decision": "Both members who held it called it a loss of nuclear surety. Retitled: the basket also holds strategic strike, missile defence and space operations." }, { "id": "O30", "key": "strategic-awareness-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "national-security", "title": "Strategic awareness failure", "short": "Strategic awareness failure", "definition": "National authorities can no longer obtain, verify and maintain the timely operational picture needed for security decisions and force coordination.", "why": "Poor awareness prevents decision-makers from judging security risks and directing national capabilities reliably.", "signs": [ "Priority intelligence requirements remain persistently unanswered", "Operational tracking and positioning fail accuracy standards", "Commanders lack a verified common operational picture" ], "basket": [ "intelligence-and-assessment", "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations", "sensing-timing-and-navigation" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Intelligence and cyber failure", "C: Strategic awareness failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O31", "key": "more-deployable-joint-force", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "national-security", "title": "More deployable joint force", "short": "More deployable joint force", "definition": "The armed forces can maintain more deployable maritime and air capability and sustain coordinated joint operations for required durations.", "why": "Sustainable joint capability strengthens defence options and practical cooperation with security partners.", "signs": [ "More units meet independently verified deployment standards", "Joint exercises sustain required operating tempos", "Personnel and equipment availability support dependable operational rotations" ], "basket": [ "force-generation-and-mobilisation", "joint-command-projection-and-sustainment", "maritime-power", "air-power" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: More deployable joint force", "C: Sustainable joint force capability" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O32", "key": "education-pipeline-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Education pipeline failure", "short": "Education pipeline failure", "definition": "Successive stages of education no longer equip enough young people with the knowledge and skills required for adult life and work.", "why": "Persistent learning deficits reduce future earnings, productivity and the supply of capable professionals.", "signs": [ "Developmental readiness falls across successive cohorts", "Foundational learning attainment declines persistently", "Qualification completion and demonstrated competence both deteriorate" ], "basket": [ "early-childhood-development", "foundational-education", "advanced-education", "technical-and-vocational-skills" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Education pipeline failure", "C: Education pipeline failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O33", "key": "health-system-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Health system failure", "short": "Health system failure", "definition": "Essential prevention and treatment are no longer reliably available and population health deteriorates beyond the system's capacity to manage.", "why": "Avoidable illness and death weaken households, public confidence and the workforce.", "signs": [ "Essential treatments become routinely unavailable", "Preventable mortality rises persistently", "Care backlogs exceed safe clinical limits" ], "basket": [ "population-health", "health-system-capability" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Health system failure", "B: Health workforce exodus", "C: Health system failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O34", "key": "adaptable-skilled-workforce", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Adaptable skilled workforce", "short": "Adaptable skilled workforce", "definition": "Workers can acquire recognised practical and digital skills throughout their careers and secure sustained employment that makes effective use of those skills.", "why": "An adaptable workforce supports higher earnings and expansion into more demanding economic activities.", "signs": [ "Recognised skills attainment rises among working-age adults", "Training completion leads to sustained skilled employment", "Persistent occupational skill shortages decline" ], "basket": [ "technical-and-vocational-skills", "digital-and-ai-competence", "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling", "labour-and-employment" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Adaptable skilled workforce", "C: Adaptable skilled workforce" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O35", "key": "stronger-health-and-biotechnology", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "human-capital", "title": "Stronger health and biotechnology", "short": "Stronger health and biotechnology", "definition": "Effective health technologies and capable care services deliver sustained improvements in healthy life and access to treatment across population groups.", "why": "Better health improves wellbeing and working capacity while reducing avoidable care needs.", "signs": [ "Healthy life expectancy improves across population groups", "Effective treatments reach more eligible patients", "Preventable illness and unmet care needs decline" ], "basket": [ "health-system-capability", "population-health", "biotechnology-and-health-technologies" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Stronger health and biotechnology", "B: Health system efficiency", "C: Stronger health and biotechnology" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O36", "key": "breakdown-of-information-trust", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Breakdown of information trust", "short": "Breakdown of information trust", "definition": "People can no longer reliably obtain and verify information needed to understand public decisions, assess official claims and act on essential guidance.", "why": "An unverifiable information environment weakens public accountability and the practical effectiveness of government guidance.", "signs": [ "Essential public claims lack accessible supporting evidence", "Independent verification remains unavailable for consequential disputed claims", "People cannot consistently identify reliable essential guidance" ], "basket": [ "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "culture-language-and-education-diplomacy", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Breakdown of information trust", "C: Breakdown of information trust" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O37", "key": "diplomatic-isolation", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Diplomatic isolation", "short": "Diplomatic isolation", "definition": "The nation lacks dependable access to the diplomatic, security and development relationships needed to advance essential interests and obtain practical cooperation.", "why": "Isolation reduces influence, access to assistance and the government's options in difficult international decisions.", "signs": [ "Priority diplomatic consultations repeatedly remain unavailable", "Security cooperation falls below agreed practical commitments", "Essential development partnerships cease functioning" ], "basket": [ "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "alliances-and-security-cooperation", "development-cooperation-and-global-assistance" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Diplomatic isolation", "C: Diplomatic isolation" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O38", "key": "stronger-information-environment", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Stronger information environment", "short": "Stronger information environment", "definition": "The public can quickly find trustworthy information and the nation's cultural and diaspora networks extend its influence.", "why": "It builds domestic coherence and a stronger external narrative.", "signs": [ "Verified information reaches most citizens within an hour of an event", "Foreign and diaspora audiences engage with national content at scale", "Elections show high trust in official results" ], "basket": [ "information-environment-and-strategic-communication", "culture-language-and-education-diplomacy", "diaspora-and-global-communities" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Stronger information environment", "B: Information environment integrity" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O39", "key": "wider-international-influence", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "information-and-influence", "title": "Wider international influence", "short": "Wider international influence", "definition": "The nation sustains wider trusted international relationships and can secure practical cooperation through diplomatic, development, educational and community networks.", "why": "Wider relationships improve access to knowledge, cooperation and a voice in international decisions.", "signs": [ "More priority diplomatic initiatives secure practical cooperation", "Development partnerships show independently verified lasting benefits", "Educational and diaspora networks sustain wider institutional links" ], "basket": [ "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks", "development-cooperation-and-global-assistance", "alliances-and-security-cooperation" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Wider international influence", "C: Wider international influence" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O40", "key": "breakdown-of-state-function", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Breakdown of state function", "short": "Breakdown of state function", "definition": "Public authorities can no longer maintain binding decisions, basic administration, public order and coordinated crisis management across substantial parts of the nation.", "why": "Ineffective public authority leaves the government unable to protect people or fulfil basic obligations.", "signs": [ "Binding public decisions routinely go unenforced", "Essential administrative services cease functioning across multiple regions", "Emergency coordination repeatedly fails across public authorities" ], "basket": [ "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "internal-security-and-order", "political-institutions-and-civic-participation", "national-resilience-and-crisis-management" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Breakdown of state function", "C: Breakdown of state function" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O41", "key": "rule-of-law-failure", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Rule of law failure", "short": "Rule of law failure", "definition": "Public power is no longer reliably constrained by enforceable rights, meaningful civic participation, independent oversight and standards of integrity.", "why": "Unchecked public power threatens rights, institutional legitimacy and the fair use of national resources.", "signs": [ "Court decisions fail to secure effective remedies", "Oversight findings rarely produce corrective action", "Public officials evade established accountability requirements" ], "basket": [ "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights", "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Rule of law failure", "C: Loss of lawful accountability" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O42", "key": "capable-digital-government", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Capable digital government", "short": "Capable digital government", "definition": "Public administration delivers interoperable digital services that people can use competently and that meet tested standards of reliability, accuracy and inclusion.", "why": "Better administration reduces delay and cost while improving access to public services.", "signs": [ "Public services complete transactions faster with fewer errors", "Digital service use rises across disadvantaged groups", "Independent tests confirm service reliability and accessibility" ], "basket": [ "digital-and-ai-competence", "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration", "communications-and-digital-infrastructure" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Capable digital government", "B: State digital transformation", "C: Capable digital government" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O43", "key": "trusted-public-institutions", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "governance-and-integrity", "title": "Trusted public institutions", "short": "Trusted public institutions", "definition": "Public institutions apply rules predictably, protect enforceable rights and demonstrate effective integrity and independent oversight in their decisions.", "why": "Trustworthy institutions protect citizens and make public spending and private investment more dependable.", "signs": [ "Administrative and judicial decisions become more consistent", "Verified integrity breaches receive effective remedies", "Oversight recommendations produce documented institutional improvements" ], "basket": [ "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption", "transparency-oversight-and-accountability", "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls", "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Trusted public institutions", "B: Trusted public institutions", "C: Trusted public institutions" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O44", "key": "loss-of-financial-stability", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "financial-strength", "title": "Loss of financial stability", "short": "Loss of financial stability", "definition": "The monetary, fiscal and financial systems can no longer sustain stable payments, viable credit provision and ordinary public financing without exceptional support.", "why": "Financial instability threatens savings, commerce and the government's capacity to meet essential obligations.", "signs": [ "Payment and withdrawal restrictions become widespread", "Ordinary public financing requires exceptional monetary support", "Credit availability contracts across otherwise viable businesses" ], "basket": [ "financial-stability-and-crisis-management", "financial-system-depth-and-access", "monetary-and-currency-capability", "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Loss of financial stability", "B: Financial system freeze", "C: Loss of financial stability" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O45", "key": "deeper-long-term-finance", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "financial-strength", "title": "Deeper long-term finance", "short": "Deeper long-term finance", "definition": "Households, firms and public investment programmes have broader access to well-governed long-term finance through reliable financial institutions and markets.", "why": "Dependable long-term finance supports productive investment while preserving financial integrity and broad access.", "signs": [ "Long-term financing reaches more viable investment projects", "Domestic savings fund more productive assets", "Financial access expands under verified prudential standards" ], "basket": [ "financial-system-depth-and-access", "financial-regulation-and-integrity", "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power", "financial-infrastructure" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Deeper long-term finance", "C: Deeper long-term finance" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O46", "key": "loss-of-industrial-capacity", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "production-and-innovation", "title": "Loss of industrial capacity", "short": "Loss of industrial capacity", "definition": "The productive base no longer sustains its previous range, complexity and capacity for making strategically important goods.", "why": "Industrial capability losses narrow economic options and weaken the ability to meet essential material needs.", "signs": [ "Domestic production capability disappears in important sectors", "Manufacturing capacity and utilisation decline persistently", "Production shifts towards less complex activities" ], "basket": [ "industrial-and-sectoral-base", "advanced-manufacturing", "economic-output-and-productivity", "labour-and-employment" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Loss of industrial capacity", "B: Industrial base erosion", "C: Industrial capacity erosion" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O47", "key": "research-translated-into-value", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "production-and-innovation", "title": "Research translated into value", "short": "Research translated into value", "definition": "The nation consistently converts advanced education and research into useful products, services and processes with sustained practical adoption.", "why": "Research creates greater public and economic value when useful results reach users.", "signs": [ "More validated research outputs reach sustained practical use", "Research-intensive enterprises generate recurring commercial revenues", "Advanced graduates enter productive research and development roles" ], "basket": [ "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation", "innovation-and-commercialisation", "technology-adoption-and-diffusion" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Research translated into value", "B: Research translated into value", "C: Research translated into value" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O48", "key": "rupture-in-trade-and-supply", "kind": "failure", "scope": "named", "domain": "trade-and-investment", "title": "Rupture in trade and supply", "short": "Rupture in trade and supply", "definition": "The nation can no longer obtain and move essential traded goods reliably or maintain workable access to international production networks.", "why": "Unreliable external supply constrains production and leaves essential needs dependent on inaccessible goods.", "signs": [ "Critical imports remain below minimum national requirements", "Freight delivery times exceed viable operating limits", "Domestic producers lose essential supply-chain connections" ], "basket": [ "trade-facilitation-and-logistics", "global-value-chain-position", "economic-leverage-and-dependence", "transport-infrastructure" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Rupture in trade and supply", "C: External supply access failure" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O49", "key": "higher-value-international-business", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "trade-and-investment", "title": "Higher-value international business", "short": "Higher-value international business", "definition": "The nation sustains more internationally competitive service businesses and productive cross-border investment while retaining greater choice over external economic relationships.", "why": "International business growth raises earnings and investment while widening national economic options.", "signs": [ "Higher-value service exports gain sustained international customers", "Cross-border investment delivers verified domestic productive benefits", "Firms diversify commercially viable international partnerships" ], "basket": [ "investment-attraction-and-projection", "digital-and-services-trade", "business-dynamism-and-entrepreneurship" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "B: Higher-value international business", "C: Higher-value international business" ], "decision": null }, { "id": "O50", "key": "sophisticated-export-strength", "kind": "prosperity", "scope": "named", "domain": "trade-and-investment", "title": "Sophisticated export strength", "short": "Sophisticated export strength", "definition": "The nation sustains a broader range of sophisticated exports with dependable market access and a stronger position in international production networks.", "why": "Higher-value exports support income growth and reduce reliance on a narrow range of products or markets.", "signs": [ "Complex exports gain sustained international market share", "Domestic value added rises within export production", "Exporters maintain access across more viable markets" ], "basket": [ "trade-policy-and-market-access", "export-capability-and-sophistication", "global-value-chain-position" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Sophisticated export strength", "C: Sophisticated export strength" ], "decision": null } ] }