{ "id": "S05", "slug": "legitimacy-rupture", "title": "A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government", "version": "0.5.0", "status": "active", "orientation": "downside", "family": "B", "short_title": "Legitimacy rupture", "thematics": [ "information-integrity-social-cohesion", "resilience-crisis-preparedness" ], "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic", "likelihood_note": "Rated for a given nation. The first-pass record counted any government that fell to protest or coup and was rated two bands higher; this record requires six months of competing claims.", "scores": { "likelihood_2y": { "band": 2, "rationale": "The Standard Severe event is demanding: competing claims held for six months, impaired administration for a fifth of the population and a 5 per cent output shortfall. Disputed results are frequent, but most are settled within days or weeks, as in the United States in 2021, Brazil in 2023 and Romania in 2024. Cases meeting the full definition, such as Côte d'Ivoire in 2010 and Bolivia in 2019, number fewer than one a year across 197 nations." }, "likelihood_10y": { "band": 3, "rationale": "Fewer than one qualifying case a year across 197 nations gives a given nation between 1 and 5 per cent over ten years. The rate is not uniform: it clusters where electoral administration is weak, succession rules are unsettled or courts are already contested. Synthetic media and declining institutional trust push the rate upward, but the evidence does not yet support a higher band for the typical nation." }, "impact_systemic": { "level": 1, "rationale": "The event strikes one nation and leaves its physical assets intact. A 5 per cent output shortfall in a typical exposed economy is well under 0.5 per cent of global output over five years. Spillovers reach neighbours, creditors and remittance flows and no further. The rating assumes the nation is not a great power or a reserve-currency issuer." }, "impact_national": { "level": 4, "rationale": "Output runs 5 per cent below path, revenue and essential services fall in areas holding a fifth of the population and security forces obey selectively. Essential services, security and social cohesion are all reached. Level 5 is not reached because infrastructure is undamaged, there is no sustained armed conflict and accepted authority can be restored within one to three years, as in Kenya after 2008." }, "confidence": { "level": "medium", "reason": "All three panel members held the scenario and two agreed on every rating; the third rated each one band higher. The base rate moves with where the six-month threshold is drawn." }, "priority": 8, "tier": "III", "source": "model-panel-v0.5" }, "scorecard": { "onset": "weeks", "duration": "1 year (acute dispute six months)", "warning": "months (the contested date is known in advance)", "scope": "national", "origin": "adversarial (domestic factions, with foreign manipulation)", "external_support": "partial", "policy_response": "current plans executed", "recovery_horizon": "years" }, "summary": "A disputed election, succession or constitutional ruling produces competing claims to lawful authority in one nation. Fabricated evidence and coordinated intimidation of officials intensify the dispute. For six months, recurrent protests and selective security-force refusals prevent normal administration in areas containing 20 per cent of the population. Revenue collection and essential service delivery fall, and national output runs 5 per cent below its previous path. Courts and official information become contested instruments. Physical assets are undamaged. The state must restore accepted authority without normalising repression or permanent emergency powers.", "narrative": { "dateline": "October 2031", "text": "The presidential runoff was held on 6 October 2030. The electoral commission announced a margin of 0.8 percentage points on 9 October, after a three-day delay in the count in two provinces. Within hours a video appearing to show ballot papers being loaded into an unmarked vehicle had been viewed 14 million times. Forensic analysts established within two days that it was synthetic. The correction reached about a tenth of that audience. Both candidates declared victory. On 21 October the constitutional court suspended certification pending a review of evidence of foreign-funded online campaigning. The outgoing government treated the order as binding. The declared winner did not.\n\nBy November there were two claimants to the presidency, each citing a lawful basis. Protests recurred weekly in the capital and four provincial cities. Election officials and three judges received coordinated threats, and two regional returning officers resigned. Police commanders in two provinces declined orders to clear occupied administrative buildings. One army garrison stated that it would take instructions only from the court. No unit changed sides and there was no sustained armed confrontation.\n\nNormal administration stopped in provinces containing about 20 per cent of the population. Tax offices and customs posts there closed or remitted to provincial authorities, and national revenue ran 15 per cent below plan between November and March. Teachers and health workers in those provinces were paid late in four of the six months. Clinics reported shortages of basic medicines. The statistics office suspended two releases after both sides challenged its figures, and the central bank set policy without them.\n\nThe currency fell 18 per cent in six weeks. Two bond auctions were cancelled and the government financed itself through short-term bills taken up by domestic banks. Mobile data was restricted on eleven days under an emergency decree that was renewed twice. Firms postponed investment. Permits and contract payments that needed a ministerial signature went unsigned because officials could not establish who was authorised to give it.\n\nA mediated agreement in April 2031 set a rerun under a reconstituted commission, with regional observers and an agreed protocol for testing evidence. The rerun was held in September 2031 and the losing side accepted the result. Output for 2031 was 5 per cent below the path forecast before the vote. The emergency decree lapsed, but three of its provisions on public assembly had been written into ordinary law, and surveys showed that fewer than a third of respondents trusted the commission to run the next election.\n\nRoads, power stations and ministries were undamaged throughout. For six months the state lacked agreement on who was entitled to direct them." }, "anchors": [ { "shock_id": "cote-divoire-post-election-crisis-2010", "date": "November 2010 to April 2011", "event": "Côte d'Ivoire post-election crisis", "what_happened": "After the runoff of 28 November 2010 the electoral commission and the Constitutional Council declared different winners and both candidates were sworn in. The stand-off lasted about four months, with around 3,000 deaths, the closure of commercial banks and a halt to cocoa exports. It ended by force in April 2011. Output contracted by roughly 4 per cent in 2011.", "calibrates": "The closest match to the defining condition: two claimants, each with an institutional basis. It supports the output shortfall of 5 per cent and marks the upper bound, since violence exceeded what Standard Severe assumes." }, { "shock_id": "kenya-post-election-crisis-2007", "date": "December 2007 to February 2008", "event": "Kenya post-election crisis", "what_happened": "The presidential result announced on 30 December 2007 was disputed. Two months of violence followed, in which more than 1,000 people were killed and several hundred thousand displaced. A mediated power-sharing agreement was signed on 28 February 2008. Growth fell from about 7 per cent in 2007 to below 2 per cent in 2008, a year that also included drought and the global downturn.", "calibrates": "The scale of the output loss, the role of outside mediation and the recovery horizon: constitutional reform followed in 2010 and the next election passed without comparable violence." }, { "shock_id": "bolivia-disputed-election-2019", "date": "October to November 2019", "event": "Bolivia disputed election", "what_happened": "The count in the election of 20 October 2019 was disputed after reporting of preliminary results was interrupted. Three weeks of protest followed. Police units in several cities refused orders from 8 November, an audit by the Organisation of American States reported irregularities and the president resigned on 10 November. A fresh election was not held until October 2020.", "calibrates": "Selective security-force refusal as the turning point, reached within three weeks, and the length of the interim: a year passed before an accepted vote." }, { "shock_id": "romanias-annulled-presidential-election-2024", "date": "6 December 2024", "event": "Romania's annulled presidential election", "what_happened": "The Constitutional Court annulled the first round of the presidential election, held on 24 November, two days before the scheduled runoff. It relied on declassified intelligence assessments describing a coordinated online campaign and undeclared campaign financing. The election was rerun in May 2025.", "calibrates": "The court as a contested instrument: a ruling made to protect the vote was read by a large minority as the removal of their choice. Administration continued, which marks the lower bound of the event." }, { "shock_id": "united-states-capitol-2021", "date": "6 January 2021", "event": "United States Capitol", "what_happened": "A crowd entered the Capitol while Congress was counting electoral votes. The count was suspended for several hours and completed in the early hours of 7 January. The transfer of power took place on the constitutional date.", "calibrates": "The advanced-democracy variant. Certification was disrupted for hours, not months, and courts, election officials and security forces held. This is the basis for the Medium exposure of North America." }, { "shock_id": "brasilia-2023", "date": "8 January 2023", "event": "Brasília", "what_happened": "One week after the inauguration, supporters of the defeated candidate entered and damaged the Congress, Supreme Court and presidential palace buildings. Security forces cleared the buildings the same day and more than 1,000 people were detained.", "calibrates": "The effect of security-force compliance. Where the chain of command held, a challenge to the result was contained in a day and did not reach administration or revenue." } ], "parameters": { "common": { "severity": { "major": "major", "severe": "severe", "extreme": "extreme" }, "duration": { "major": "90 days", "severe": "1 year (acute dispute six months)", "extreme": "3 years" }, "onset": { "major": "weeks", "severe": "weeks", "extreme": "days" }, "warning": { "major": "months", "severe": "months (the contested date is known in advance)", "extreme": "days" }, "scope": { "major": "national", "severe": "national", "extreme": "national (with spillover to neighbours)" }, "origin": { "major": null, "severe": "adversarial (domestic factions, with foreign manipulation)", "extreme": "adversarial (a neighbour or great power backs one claimant)" }, "external_support": { "major": "full", "severe": "partial", "extreme": "none" }, "concurrency": { "major": "standalone", "severe": "standalone", "extreme": "plus one named scenario (S02)" }, "policy_response": { "major": null, "severe": "current plans executed", "extreme": null }, "recovery_horizon": { "major": "months", "severe": "years", "extreme": "structural" } }, "specific": [ { "name": "Trigger", "default": "disputed election", "range": "options: disputed election / succession / constitutional ruling", "unit": null, "note": "The trigger must produce at least two claimants, each citing a lawful basis." }, { "name": "Duration of competing claims", "default": "6 months", "range": "2 to 18", "unit": "months", "note": "Measured from the disputed act to an accepted settlement or rerun date." }, { "name": "Population under impaired administration", "default": "20 per cent", "range": "10 to 40", "unit": "per cent of population", "note": "Areas where national tax, justice and payroll functions do not operate normally." }, { "name": "Output shortfall against the prior path", "default": "5 per cent", "range": "2 to 10", "unit": "per cent of annual GDP", "note": "First full year after the disputed act." }, { "name": "Revenue shortfall during the dispute", "default": "15 per cent below plan", "range": "5 to 30", "unit": "per cent of planned national revenue", "note": "A GINC working assumption; the specification states only that revenue collection falls." }, { "name": "Security-force compliance", "default": "selective refusals", "range": "options: full compliance / selective refusals / open split", "unit": null, "note": "An open split belongs to Standard Extreme." }, { "name": "Fabricated evidence and intimidation", "default": "coordinated, partly foreign", "range": "options: sporadic / coordinated domestic / coordinated, partly foreign", "unit": null, "note": "Covers synthetic media, forged documents and threats against election officials and judges." } ] }, "transmission": [ "A disputed count, succession or ruling produces two claimants, each citing a lawful basis.", "Fabricated evidence spreads faster than verification, while officials and judges face coordinated intimidation.", "Recurrent protest and counter-protest occupy administrative centres in contested areas.", "Security forces obey selectively, so neither claimant can enforce orders across the whole territory.", "Courts, the electoral body and the statistics office lose accepted authority as each side rejects adverse findings.", "Tax collection, payroll and essential services falter in areas holding a fifth of the population.", "Capital leaves, the currency falls and the government loses access to term funding.", "A mediated settlement restores a single authority, with emergency powers and distrust carried forward." ], "loading": [ { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "defence-security", "load": "High", "channel": "Selective refusal of orders splits the chain of command; forces are drawn into internal order." }, { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Assets are undamaged, but occupations, unpaid staff and data restrictions interrupt transport, health and communications services." }, { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "critical-technology", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Synthetic media, election systems and platform restrictions are contested; verification capacity is tested." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "government-effectiveness", "load": "High", "channel": "Electoral administration, courts, revenue collection and continuity of government lose accepted authority." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "human-capital", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Schools and clinics close or go unpaid in contested areas; professionals emigrate." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "influence-cohesion", "load": "High", "channel": "Official information is disbelieved, polarisation hardens and partners withhold recognition." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "macro-financial", "load": "High", "channel": "Capital flight, currency depreciation, cancelled auctions and a revenue shortfall." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "industry-trade-supply", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Investment is postponed; permits, customs and contract payments stall without an authorised signatory." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "energy-resources", "load": "Low", "channel": "Supply continues; subsidy decisions and resource revenues become objects of the dispute." } ], "stakeholders": { "government": { "exposure": "Electoral administration, courts, security-force chain of command, revenue collection and the credibility of official information.", "actions": [ "Agree before the vote how results are verified, how complaints are heard and by what date.", "Set lawful rules for policing protest and for the limits and expiry of emergency powers.", "Plan payroll, revenue and service continuity for a period without an agreed head of government." ], "watch": [ "Resignations of, and threats against, election officials and judges", "Statements by police and military commanders on whose orders they accept", "Revenue remitted by provincial tax and customs offices" ], "relevance": 5 }, "technology": { "exposure": "Platforms carrying fabricated evidence, operators of election and results systems and telecommunications operators subject to restriction orders.", "actions": [ "Establish provenance checks and rapid verification channels with the electoral body before the vote.", "Secure results transmission and publish polling-station counts in a form that can be audited.", "Define the legal process required before complying with a shutdown or data restriction order." ], "watch": [ "Reach of synthetic media against reach of corrections", "Coordinated inauthentic accounts amplifying either claimant", "Shutdown and throttling orders and their legal basis" ], "relevance": 3 }, "investors": { "exposure": "Sovereign debt, currency, domestic banks holding government paper and firms dependent on permits and public contracts.", "actions": [ "Include a contested transfer of power in sovereign and country risk models around the electoral calendar.", "Test contracts and guarantees against a period in which the lawful signatory is disputed.", "Review exposure to domestic banks that become the residual buyer of government bills." ], "watch": [ "Sovereign spreads and currency moves in the 30 days around a vote", "Auction cancellations and the shift to short-term bills", "Recognition decisions by multilateral lenders and major partners" ], "relevance": 4 }, "public": { "exposure": "Personal safety, the reliability of information and access to pay, health care and schooling in contested areas.", "actions": [ "Rely on published polling-station counts and accredited observer statements, not on unverified footage.", "Local authorities keep clinics, schools and water services operating under either claimant.", "Civil society and media document intimidation and the use of emergency powers." ], "watch": [ "Official results channels and observer statements", "Curfews, assembly restrictions and data shutdowns", "Late payment of public salaries and shortages at clinics" ], "relevance": 4 } }, "regions": [ { "region": "north-america", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Certification was disrupted in 2021 and polarisation is high, but courts, officials and security forces held." }, { "region": "europe", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Romania's 2024 annulment shows the judicial pathway; administration is generally robust to a disputed result." }, { "region": "china", "exposure": "Low", "rationale": "No electoral transfer; a succession dispute would follow a different pathway from the one specified." }, { "region": "indo-pacific", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Disputed counts and military involvement have precedents in parts of ASEAN and the Pacific; advanced economies are less exposed." }, { "region": "south-asia", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Bangladesh in 2024 and Nepal in 2025 show rapid loss of authority; disputed elections and politicised courts recur." }, { "region": "gulf-middle-east", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Succession and constitutional rulings are the likely triggers; several states have armed groups outside the state chain of command." }, { "region": "africa", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Kenya in 2007 and Côte d'Ivoire in 2010 are the direct precedents; coups have followed disputed mandates." }, { "region": "latin-america", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Bolivia in 2019 and Venezuela since 2019 show disputed counts leading to rival claims and police refusals." }, { "region": "russia-eurasia", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Disputed counts have brought mass protest and annulment in the region, with open external backing for incumbents or challengers." } ], "indicators": [ { "name": "Protest and riot events, including events involving state forces", "source": "ACLED", "threshold": "Weekly events above three times the trailing 12-month average for four consecutive weeks", "cadence": "weekly" }, { "name": "Clean elections index and election management body autonomy", "source": "V-Dem Institute, Varieties of Democracy dataset", "threshold": "A fall of 0.1 or more on the 0 to 1 scale between annual releases", "cadence": "annual" }, { "name": "Trust in national government", "source": "OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions; Edelman Trust Barometer", "threshold": "Below 30 per cent with a national vote or succession due within 12 months", "cadence": "annual (Edelman); every two years (OECD)" }, { "name": "Election observation findings on the count and the complaints process", "source": "OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights; regional observer missions", "threshold": "A preliminary statement that declines to confirm the count", "cadence": "each election" }, { "name": "Constraints on government powers and judicial independence", "source": "World Justice Project Rule of Law Index", "threshold": "A decline in two consecutive editions", "cadence": "annual" }, { "name": "Internet shutdowns and platform restrictions", "source": "Access Now, #KeepItOn coalition", "threshold": "Any national or provincial shutdown during an electoral period", "cadence": "annual report, with running updates" }, { "name": "Sovereign spread and exchange rate around the electoral calendar", "source": "J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified; national central bank", "threshold": "Spread widening of 200 basis points within 30 days of a vote", "cadence": "daily" }, { "name": "Takedowns of coordinated inauthentic networks naming the nation", "source": "Meta Adversarial Threat Report", "threshold": null, "cadence": "quarterly" } ], "compounds": { "triggers": [ { "id": "S04", "note": "A divided chain of command and contested attribution lower the cost of a hostile hybrid campaign." }, { "id": "S03", "note": "Only where the nation is strategically placed and neighbours back rival claimants." }, { "id": "S02", "note": "Only where the nation is a reserve-currency issuer or a major financial centre." }, { "id": "S10", "note": "A state without effective government detects and reports an outbreak late." } ], "triggered_by": [ { "id": "S02", "note": "Loss of market access and forced spending cuts precede a contested vote." }, { "id": "S04", "note": "Information operations and intimidation are part of the hostile campaign and can be aimed at a transfer of power." }, { "id": "S06", "note": "Food shortages and unrest over distribution weaken the incumbent's mandate before a vote." }, { "id": "S08", "note": "Abrupt displacement erodes trust in economic opportunity and raises support for rejecting results." }, { "id": "S07", "note": "A relief effort seen as failed or unfair, close to an election or succession, can open a dispute over lawful authority." }, { "id": "S09", "note": "Forged signatures and contested official records feed competing claims to lawful authority." }, { "id": "S10", "note": "Contested emergency measures and postponed votes weaken the lawful authority of governments." }, { "id": "S14", "note": "Factions that reject the terms may dispute a signatory government's authority" }, { "id": "S15", "note": "fiscal retrenchment in hydrocarbon-dependent states" } ], "amplified_by": [ { "id": "S09", "note": "Forged digital signatures make official results and court documents harder to authenticate." }, { "id": "S10", "note": "Postponed votes and emergency health powers extend the period of contested authority." } ], "triggered_by_other": [], "amplifying_trends": [ "Election integrity & interference", "Foreign information manipulation", "Declining institutional trust", "Polarisation & populism", "Civil unrest & protest mobilisation", "Rule of law & judicial independence", "Executive overreach & emergency powers", "Synthetic media & deepfakes" ] }, "open_questions": [ "Whether one Standard Severe definition can serve both advanced democracies, where disputes have so far been settled in days, and states with weak electoral administration.", "How to rate systemic impact when the nation is a great power or a reserve-currency issuer; the level 1 rating assumes it is not.", "Whether the output and revenue shortfalls should be set by income group, given that the evidence rests mainly on Kenya and Côte d'Ivoire.", "Where this scenario ends and S04 begins when foreign manipulation is the main driver of the dispute." ], "commentary": null, "overview": { "source": "model-panel-v0.5", "lenses": { "political": "Two claimants each cite a lawful basis. **Competing claims to lawful authority** last six months and security forces obey selectively.", "economic": "The currency falls 18 per cent and two bond auctions are cancelled. Output runs **5 per cent below its previous path**.", "social": "Normal administration stops in areas holding **20 per cent of the population**. Public salaries are paid late and clinics run short of medicines.", "technological": "A synthetic video is viewed 14 million times and **the correction reaches a tenth of that audience**. Mobile data is restricted under emergency decree.", "legal": "One side treats the court's suspension of certification as binding and the other does not. **Emergency provisions pass into ordinary law**.", "environmental": "Physical assets and natural systems are **undamaged**. Permitting and environmental enforcement lapse in areas outside normal administration." }, "regions": { "north-america": "Rated Medium. Certification was disrupted for hours in 2021, but **courts, officials and security forces held**.", "europe": "Rated Medium. Romania's 2024 annulment shows **the judicial pathway**, with administration continuing throughout.", "china": "Rated Low. There is no electoral transfer and a succession dispute would follow **a different pathway**.", "indo-pacific": "Rated Medium. **Disputed counts and military involvement** have precedents in parts of ASEAN and the Pacific.", "south-asia": "Rated High. Bangladesh in 2024 and Nepal in 2025 show **rapid loss of authority** once protest spreads.", "gulf-middle-east": "Rated High. **Succession and constitutional rulings** are the likely triggers, and some states have armed groups outside the state chain of command.", "africa": "Rated High. **Kenya in 2007 and Côte d'Ivoire in 2010** are the direct precedents for rival claims and lost output.", "latin-america": "Rated High. Bolivia in 2019 shows **police refusal of orders** deciding a disputed count within three weeks.", "russia-eurasia": "Rated High. Disputed counts have brought mass protest and annulment, with **open external backing** for one side." }, "evolution": { "lead_indicators": "Trust in national government is below 30 per cent with a vote due within 12 months. Observers **decline to confirm the count** and the sovereign spread widens 200 basis points.", "triggers": "A disputed election, succession or constitutional ruling leaves **two claimants, each citing a lawful basis**. Fabricated evidence spreads faster than its correction.", "immediate": "Within weeks protests recur in the capital and provincial cities. Election officials and judges receive coordinated threats and **police commanders decline orders** in contested provinces.", "post_immediate": "Normal administration stops for **20 per cent of the population**. Revenue runs 15 per cent below plan, public salaries are paid late and the currency falls 18 per cent.", "stabilisation": "A mediated agreement after six months sets a rerun, whose result the losing side accepts within the year. Output that year is **5 per cent below its previous path**.", "long_term": "**Emergency provisions on public assembly** remain in ordinary law. Fewer than a third of respondents trust the electoral commission to run the next election." } }, "history": [ { "edition": 2027, "rank": 8, "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 1, "impact_national": 4, "confidence": "medium" } ], "changelog": [ { "version": "0.5.0", "date": "2026-10-09", "change": "Rebuilt in the second pass from Political legitimacy crisis: narrowed to a disputed transfer of power lasting six months, likelihood lowered two bands and each impact one level, infrastructure and industry loads raised to Medium, Gulf and Middle East and Russia and Eurasia raised to High." } ], "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S05 A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government, Scenario Library v0.5. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios/legitimacy-rupture" }