{ "id": "S06", "slug": "breadbasket-failure", "title": "Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis", "version": "0.5.0", "status": "active", "orientation": "downside", "family": "C", "short_title": "Breadbasket failure", "thematics": [ "climate-energy-resources", "economic-security-supply-chains", "resilience-crisis-preparedness" ], "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_note": null, "scores": { "likelihood_2y": { "band": 3, "rationale": "Shocks with one failing region or one major restricting exporter occurred in 2007–2008, 2010, 2012, 2022 and 2023, about once every three years. None combined a 25 per cent loss of exportable grain in two regions with prices doubled for 18 months. The joint event is rarer than its parts, and the panel places it at 1 to 5 per cent over two years." }, "likelihood_10y": { "band": 4, "rationale": "Warming raises the frequency of extreme heat during grain filling and the chance that droughts in separate regions coincide. Exports of wheat, maize, rice and soya beans remain concentrated in a small number of suppliers, and export restrictions have become a routine response to high prices. Over ten years the panel judges an event of this severity likely, at 5 to 25 per cent." }, "impact_systemic": { "level": 3, "rationale": "Lloyd's puts the probability-weighted loss from a food and water shock at US$5 trillion over five years, close to 1 per cent of global output. This specification sits at the severe end of that range, with prices doubled for 18 months, which places it within 1 to 2.5 per cent. Food is a small share of output in advanced economies, which keeps the global loss below level 4." }, "impact_national": { "level": 4, "rationale": "For a highly exposed importer, a 15 per cent fall in physical availability and doubled prices for 18 months mean rationing, higher child malnutrition, a doubled subsidy bill and reserve losses. In 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 smaller price rises were followed by unrest in importing countries. The panel sets level 4, not 5: the specification is a shortage with recovery within years, not famine or state failure." }, "confidence": { "level": "medium", "reason": "The price and trade mechanisms are well documented from recent episodes. The probability that two regions fail together and the size of the import shortfall rest on climate modelling and judgement." }, "priority": 12, "tier": "II", "source": "model-panel-v0.5" }, "scorecard": { "onset": "months", "duration": "1 year (prices doubled for 18 months)", "warning": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "natural (export restrictions follow)", "external_support": "partial", "policy_response": "current plans executed", "recovery_horizon": "years" }, "summary": "Extreme heat and drought cut exportable grain from two major producing regions by 25 per cent in the same season. Export restrictions by other suppliers and a fertiliser shortage prevent rapid substitution. International staple prices double and stay there for 18 months, and physical import availability falls 15 per cent for highly exposed buyers. Water shortages also constrain domestic harvests and power generation in the affected regions. Governments must protect nutrition and farm viability while managing scarce foreign exchange, cross-border water disputes and unrest over food distribution. Exporters that are not affected and holders of usable stocks gain; poor consumers, food importers and water-stressed producers lose.", "narrative": { "dateline": "September 2031", "text": "The losses were confirmed in two stages. In July 2029, after seven weeks of extreme heat during grain filling, crop surveys in the first producing region cut the expected wheat and maize harvest by almost a third. In October the second region, in the other hemisphere, reported that drought had reduced its planted area and yields by a similar margin. Taken together, the grain available for export from the two regions was 25 per cent below the five-year average.\n\nPrices moved before the second report. By November international wheat, maize and rice prices were double their level of a year earlier, and they stayed near that level until the spring of 2031. Eleven governments restricted staple exports within ten weeks of the first report, most by quota or licence and a few by outright ban. Three of them were suppliers with normal harvests. Importers holding contracts found that cargoes were delayed, re-priced or cancelled under force majeure clauses. For the most exposed buyers, delivered volumes over the following year were 15 per cent below requirement.\n\nThe same drought lowered reservoirs. Hydropower output in the affected regions fell by a fifth, irrigation allocations were cut and two governments in a shared basin disputed releases from upstream dams. Gas-fired generation covered part of the gap and raised the cost of nitrogen fertiliser, which several producers had already stopped exporting. Farmers in importing countries applied less in the 2030 season and yields there fell, so the shortage lasted beyond the season in which it began.\n\nGovernments with physical reserves near their cities released them in the first three months. Those whose reserves were financial, or were stored at ports far from consumers, could not turn them into food at the pace required. Bread and rice subsidies that had cost 1 to 2 per cent of GDP doubled. Central banks in importing economies spent reserves defending their currencies as food import bills rose, and nine governments sought emergency balance of payments support. Humanitarian appeals for 2030 were less than half funded.\n\nRationing was introduced in fourteen countries. Where distribution was seen to be fair, it held. Where subsidised grain was diverted or queues were policed by force, protests spread from the capital to provincial towns, and two governments fell during 2030. Acute malnutrition among children under five rose in every low-income importing country that reported data. Herds were slaughtered early in the drought regions, and many small farms did not plant the following season because they could not finance seed and fertiliser.\n\nHarvests recovered in 2031 and prices fell back within months. Stocks did not recover as quickly: the rebuilding of public reserves kept import demand high into 2032. The countries that came through with least damage had held reserves of the right grains near the people who needed them, had transfer systems that could reach households within weeks and had kept enough foreign exchange to buy when others could not." }, "anchors": [ { "shock_id": "world-food-price-crisis-2007", "date": "2007–2008", "event": "World food price crisis", "what_happened": "International rice prices roughly tripled between late 2007 and spring 2008 after India, Vietnam and other exporters restricted sales, although the world rice harvest had not failed. Wheat and maize prices also reached records. Unrest over food prices was reported in more than 30 countries and the prime minister of Haiti was dismissed in April 2008 after food riots.", "calibrates": "Export restrictions and precautionary buying can double or triple a staple price without a large physical loss. It sets the price multiple and shows how quickly a price rise reaches public order in importing countries." }, { "shock_id": "russian-wheat-export-ban-2010", "date": "August 2010 to June 2011", "event": "Russian wheat export ban", "what_happened": "A summer of extreme heat and drought cut Russia's grain harvest by about a third. The government banned grain exports from 15 August 2010 and kept the ban until 1 July 2011. International wheat prices rose by more than half over the summer, and bread prices rose in North African and Middle Eastern importers ahead of the unrest of 2011.", "calibrates": "One heat event in one exporting region, followed by one ban, was enough to move the world wheat price. The specification doubles the number of regions and adds restrictions by suppliers whose harvests were normal." }, { "shock_id": "black-sea-grain-disruption-2022", "date": "February 2022 to July 2023", "event": "Black Sea grain disruption", "what_happened": "Russia and Ukraine had together supplied more than a quarter of world wheat exports. Ukraine's seaports closed in late February 2022 and the FAO Food Price Index reached a record in March 2022. The Black Sea Grain Initiative, agreed on 22 July 2022, moved about 33 million tonnes before it lapsed in July 2023.", "calibrates": "A loss of access to one exporting region, with the grain itself intact, produced a record price index and cancelled cargoes for importers in Africa and the Middle East. It calibrates the fall in physical availability for exposed buyers." }, { "shock_id": "fertiliser-price-spike-2022", "date": "2021–2022", "event": "Fertiliser price spike", "what_happened": "Nitrogen fertiliser prices roughly tripled between 2020 and spring 2022 as European gas prices rose, ammonia plants curtailed output, China and Russia restricted exports and sanctions cut Belarusian potash sales. Farmers in low-income countries reduced application in the following season.", "calibrates": "The route by which a one-season shock lowers the next harvest. It supports the assumption that fertiliser cannot be substituted quickly and that the shortage outlasts the season in which it begins." }, { "shock_id": "india-rice-export-ban-2023", "date": "July 2023", "event": "India rice export ban", "what_happened": "On 20 July 2023 India, which supplied about 40 per cent of world rice trade, prohibited exports of non-basmati white rice to restrain domestic prices after erratic monsoon rains. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose to its highest level in 15 years in the following months.", "calibrates": "A supplier with adequate stocks restricted exports as a precaution. It shows that restrictions by unaffected exporters are a standing feature of the market and not an extreme assumption." }, { "shock_id": "lloyds-food-and-water-shock-scenario-2023", "date": "October 2023", "event": "Lloyd's food and water shock scenario", "what_happened": "Lloyd's and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies modelled extreme weather leading to food and water shortages at three severities. The probability-weighted global economic loss was US$5 trillion over five years.", "calibrates": "The systemic impact rating. A loss near 1 per cent of five-year global output for the weighted case places the severe case at level 3." } ], "parameters": { "common": { "severity": { "major": "major", "severe": "severe", "extreme": "extreme" }, "duration": { "major": "1 year (one season)", "severe": "1 year (prices doubled for 18 months)", "extreme": "3 years (two failed seasons)" }, "onset": { "major": "months", "severe": "months", "extreme": "months" }, "warning": { "major": "months", "severe": "months", "extreme": "months" }, "scope": { "major": "global", "severe": "global", "extreme": "global" }, "origin": { "major": "natural", "severe": "natural (export restrictions follow)", "extreme": "natural (export restrictions follow)" }, "external_support": { "major": "partial", "severe": "partial", "extreme": "none" }, "concurrency": { "major": "standalone", "severe": "standalone", "extreme": "plus one named scenario (S03)" }, "policy_response": { "major": "current plans executed", "severe": "current plans executed", "extreme": "current plans executed" }, "recovery_horizon": { "major": "months", "severe": "years", "extreme": "years" } }, "specific": [ { "name": "Producing regions failing in one season", "default": "2", "range": "1 to 3", "unit": "regions", "note": "Standard Major uses one region; Standard Extreme uses three." }, { "name": "Fall in exportable grain from the failing regions", "default": "25", "range": "15 to 40", "unit": "per cent below the five-year average", "note": "Wheat, maize and rice taken together." }, { "name": "International staple price multiple", "default": "×2", "range": "×1.5 to ×3", "unit": "multiple of the pre-shock price", "note": "Held for 18 months at the default; the period may be set from 9 to 36 months." }, { "name": "Fall in physical import availability for highly exposed buyers", "default": "15", "range": "5 to 30", "unit": "per cent of normal import volume", "note": "Applies in full at High exposure and is scaled down for other nations." }, { "name": "Traded staple calories under export restriction", "default": "15", "range": "5 to 30", "unit": "per cent of traded calories", "note": "Includes restrictions by suppliers whose own harvests were normal." }, { "name": "Fertiliser application in the following season", "default": "10 per cent below normal", "range": "0 to 25", "unit": "per cent below normal in importing countries", "note": "Carries the shock into a second harvest." }, { "name": "Hydropower output in the affected regions", "default": "20 per cent below normal", "range": "0 to 40", "unit": "per cent below normal", "note": "Stands for the wider water shortage, including irrigation allocations." } ] }, "transmission": [ "Heat and drought in two producing regions cut their exportable wheat, maize and rice by 25 per cent in one season.", "International prices double within months as importers bid for the remaining supply and traders anticipate restrictions.", "Other exporters restrict sales to hold down domestic prices, removing further supply and voiding contracts that importers relied on.", "Physical availability for highly exposed importers falls 15 per cent; reserves held far from consumers or in financial form cannot fill the gap in time.", "Low reservoirs cut irrigation and hydropower in the affected regions; gas demand for power raises fertiliser costs and states sharing a river dispute releases.", "Food import bills and subsidies rise together, draining foreign exchange, widening deficits and passing food price inflation into wages and interest rates.", "Rationing and price rises fall hardest on poor urban households; where distribution is seen as unfair, protest spreads and governments are challenged.", "Lower fertiliser use, slaughtered herds and unplanted small farms reduce the next harvest, while child malnutrition leaves lasting losses in health and schooling." ], "loading": [ { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "defence-security", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Cross-border water disputes, guarding of food stores and convoys and armed forces drawn into distribution and public order." }, { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "strategic-infrastructure", "load": "High", "channel": "Grain storage, ports, irrigation, water supply and hydropower run short or are in the wrong places." }, { "dimension": "Hard", "domain": "critical-technology", "load": "Medium", "channel": "Crop forecasting, drought-tolerant seed, precision irrigation and digital transfer systems decide how early and how well a nation responds." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "government-effectiveness", "load": "High", "channel": "Reserve release, rationing, targeted transfers and price policy must work within weeks and be seen as fair." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "human-capital", "load": "High", "channel": "Child malnutrition, maternal health and school attendance worsen; rural livelihoods are lost and workers migrate." }, { "dimension": "Soft", "domain": "influence-cohesion", "load": "High", "channel": "Unrest over prices and distribution, strained relations with exporters and neighbours and contested official figures on stocks." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "macro-financial", "load": "High", "channel": "Import bills and subsidies drain reserves and budgets; food price inflation, currency pressure and requests for emergency financing follow." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "industry-trade-supply", "load": "High", "channel": "Cancelled cargoes, export restrictions, competition for freight and lower farm and food-processing output." }, { "dimension": "Economic", "domain": "energy-resources", "load": "High", "channel": "Water, arable land and fertiliser are the binding constraints; hydropower falls and gas demand rises." } ], "stakeholders": { "government": { "exposure": "Reserve policy by grain and location, the reach of transfer systems, foreign exchange for imports and water-sharing agreements.", "actions": [ "Hold physical reserves of the staples people eat, stored near consumers, with published release rules.", "Link cash and food transfers to local prices so that support rises without a new decision.", "Agree import contracts and water-sharing rules with suppliers and neighbours before a shortage." ], "watch": [ "Stocks-to-use ratios of the major exporters", "Export restrictions announced by other governments", "Reservoir levels and irrigation allocations" ], "relevance": 4 }, "technology": { "exposure": "Crop forecasting, irrigation control, cold chains and the payment systems that carry transfers; water and power for data centres in drought regions.", "actions": [ "Supply governments with yield, soil moisture and stock estimates early enough to act on.", "Keep payment and identity platforms available for emergency transfers at national scale.", "Plan for restricted water and power at facilities in drought-affected basins." ], "watch": [ "Satellite crop condition and soil moisture indices", "Hydropower output and grid notices in affected regions", "Government requests for emergency transfer capacity" ], "relevance": 4 }, "investors": { "exposure": "Sovereign debt of food importers, agricultural commodities, fertiliser producers, food retailers, crop insurers and utilities dependent on hydropower.", "actions": [ "Test portfolios against staple prices doubled for 18 months and a 15 per cent import shortfall.", "Review sovereign exposures by food import bill, reserve cover and subsidy cost.", "Check crop insurance and reinsurance accumulations across the two failing regions." ], "watch": [ "Export restriction announcements", "Reserve cover of food-importing sovereigns", "Fertiliser and natural gas prices" ], "relevance": 5 }, "public": { "exposure": "Food prices and availability, most acutely for poor urban households and for small farmers in drought regions.", "actions": [ "Households: know how the national ration or transfer scheme registers people and where it distributes.", "Local government: map stores, mills and distribution points and plan for orderly, fair queuing.", "Media and civil society: report stock and distribution figures accurately to limit hoarding." ], "watch": [ "Retail prices of bread, rice and cooking oil", "Subsidy, ration and transfer announcements", "Child malnutrition screening results" ], "relevance": 5 } }, "regions": [ { "region": "north-america", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Exporter with secure supply, but a candidate failing region; drought cuts western water and hydropower, and consumer food inflation rises." }, { "region": "europe", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Net cereal exporter with fertiliser tied to imported gas; southern water stress, food inflation and migration pressure from neighbouring importers." }, { "region": "china", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Largest importer of soya beans and feed grain; northern water stress; large reserves soften the first year but rebuilding them tightens world supply." }, { "region": "indo-pacific", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Rice importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia and import-dependent Pacific islands are exposed; Australia, Thailand and Vietnam export." }, { "region": "south-asia", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Heat and a weak monsoon cut domestic wheat and rice; Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra waters are contested; undernutrition is high and fiscal space thin." }, { "region": "gulf-middle-east", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Most staples are imported and Egypt is among the largest wheat buyers; water is scarce and Nile, Tigris and Euphrates flows are disputed." }, { "region": "africa", "exposure": "High", "rationale": "Import-dependent cities, rain-fed farming, fertiliser dependence, low reserves of grain and foreign exchange and high existing acute food insecurity." }, { "region": "latin-america", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Brazil and Argentina export and may gain or fail; Caribbean and Central American importers and the dry corridor are exposed." }, { "region": "russia-eurasia", "exposure": "Medium", "rationale": "Russia and Kazakhstan gain as exporters unless they are a failing region; Central Asian water sharing and importers in the Caucasus are exposed." } ], "indicators": [ { "name": "FAO Food Price Index, cereals sub-index", "source": "FAO", "threshold": "Cereals sub-index 30 per cent above its level a year earlier", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "Stocks-to-use ratios for wheat, maize and rice", "source": "Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Market Monitor; USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates", "threshold": "Stocks-to-use ratio of the major exporters at or below its lowest level of the past ten years", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "Crop conditions in the main producing regions", "source": "GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for AMIS", "threshold": "Poor or failure conditions reported for two major exporting regions in the same season", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "Food and fertiliser export restrictions in force", "source": "International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) export restrictions tracker", "threshold": "Restrictions covering more than 10 per cent of globally traded calories", "cadence": "weekly" }, { "name": "Fertiliser prices: urea, DAP and potash", "source": "World Bank Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet)", "threshold": "Urea at twice its three-year average", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "El Niño and La Niña status and outlook", "source": "NOAA ENSO Diagnostic Discussion", "threshold": "An advisory in force during the growing season of two major producing regions", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "Acute food insecurity classifications", "source": "Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC); Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET)", "threshold": "Population in IPC Phase 3 or above rising in three or more regions at once", "cadence": "monthly" }, { "name": "Food import bills of low-income food-deficit countries", "source": "FAO Food Outlook", "threshold": null, "cadence": "twice a year" } ], "compounds": { "triggers": [ { "id": "S05", "note": "Unrest over food prices and distribution weakens accepted authority and can turn a contested succession into a breakdown of administration." }, { "id": "S03", "note": "Disputes over shared rivers and scarce grain raise the risk of armed confrontation between neighbours; a contributing cause only." }, { "id": "S16", "note": "A food availability crisis raises the urgency and financing of seed approval, irrigation and storage programmes." }, { "id": "S07", "note": "The heat and drought behind the breadbasket failures can produce the heat emergency or fire variant in the same season." }, { "id": "S10", "note": "Food scarcity raises vulnerability to infection and increases contact with wildlife and livestock." }, { "id": "S11", "note": "food import bills exhaust the foreign exchange of indebted importers" } ], "triggered_by": [ { "id": "S03", "note": "A closed sea route blocks grain and fertiliser cargoes and raises gas prices, producing the same import shortfall without a harvest failure." }, { "id": "S01", "note": "Export controls and bloc restrictions on fertiliser and farm inputs reduce harvests and make food export restrictions more likely." }, { "id": "S07", "note": "Only where the core is also a major grain-producing or grain-exporting region; the loss then counts as one of the two failures." } ], "amplified_by": [ { "id": "S02", "note": "A funding seizure removes trade finance and market access when importers most need foreign exchange." }, { "id": "S07", "note": "A disaster at a port or storage concentration removes the reserves and handling capacity that the response depends on." }, { "id": "S10", "note": "Workplace absence and movement controls reduce farm labour, port throughput and food distribution." } ], "triggered_by_other": [], "amplifying_trends": [ "Climate change & physical risk", "Freshwater stress & transboundary water", "Agricultural soil degradation", "Staple food export concentration", "Fertiliser supply dependence", "Food storage & cold chains", "Strategic stockpiles & reserves", "Persistent nutritional deprivation" ] }, "open_questions": [ "Whether a 25 per cent fall in exportable grain from two regions is the right Standard Severe level, or whether one failing region with widespread export restrictions produces the same result for importers.", "How to record exporters that gain from higher prices in a downside record that measures loss.", "Whether deliberate restriction of a shared river by an upstream state, which the first-pass record included, now needs a scenario of its own.", "Whether national impact at level 4 understates the outcome for low-income importers already in acute food insecurity, where the first-pass record set level 5." ], "commentary": null, "overview": { "source": "model-panel-v0.5", "lenses": { "political": "Governments are judged on **whether distribution is seen to be fair**. Exporters restrict sales to protect domestic consumers and upstream states control releases from shared rivers.", "economic": "Staple prices **double for 18 months**. Import bills and subsidies rise together and drain foreign exchange; exporters with normal harvests and holders of usable stocks gain.", "social": "Poor urban households and small farmers carry the loss. **Child malnutrition rises** in low-income importing countries and rationing tests public order.", "technological": "**Early crop forecasts** and transfer systems that reach households within weeks decide the quality of the response. Drought-tolerant seed and efficient irrigation limit the second-season loss.", "legal": "Export quotas and licences void commercial contracts under **force majeure clauses**. Trade rules permit temporary food export restrictions and many water-sharing treaties lack binding enforcement.", "environmental": "**Extreme heat and drought** strike two regions in one season. Low reservoirs cut irrigation and hydropower, and degraded soils and depleted aquifers slow recovery." }, "regions": { "north-america": "Physical supply is secure. The region is **a candidate failing region**; drought there cuts western water and hydropower and raises food inflation.", "europe": "A net cereal exporter facing **food inflation and costly fertiliser**. Southern water stress and pressure from neighbouring importers add to the load.", "china": "**The largest buyer of soya beans and feed grain**, with water stress in the north. Reserves cover the first year; rebuilding them tightens world supply.", "indo-pacific": "**Rice importers and Pacific islands** are exposed. Australia, Thailand and Vietnam export and gain unless their own harvests fail.", "south-asia": "Heat and a weak monsoon cut **domestic wheat and rice**. Shared rivers are disputed, undernutrition is already high and fiscal space is thin.", "gulf-middle-east": "**Most staples are imported** and water is scarce. Gulf states can outbid other buyers; Egypt, Yemen and the Levant cannot.", "africa": "Import-dependent cities, rain-fed farming and **low reserves of grain and foreign exchange**. Existing acute food insecurity is the highest of any region.", "latin-america": "Brazil and Argentina export and may gain or be a failing region. **Caribbean and Central American importers** carry the exposure.", "russia-eurasia": "**Exporter windfalls** for Russia and Kazakhstan unless they are a failing region. Central Asian water sharing and importers in the Caucasus are exposed." }, "evolution": { "lead_indicators": "**Poor crop conditions in two exporting regions** in one season, exporters' stocks-to-use ratios at ten-year lows and an El Niño or La Niña advisory during both growing seasons.", "triggers": "Extreme heat and drought cut exportable grain from **two major producing regions** by 25 per cent in the same season, measured against the five-year average.", "immediate": "Within months **international staple prices double**. Other exporters restrict sales, some with normal harvests, and contracted cargoes are delayed, re-priced or cancelled.", "post_immediate": "Delivered imports fall **15 per cent below requirement** for exposed buyers. Subsidy bills double, reserves drain, rationing begins and unrest follows where distribution is seen as unfair.", "stabilisation": "Lower fertiliser use carries the shortage into a second harvest. Prices stay doubled **for 18 months**, then fall within months once harvests recover; rebuilding reserves keeps import demand high.", "long_term": "**Child malnutrition leaves lasting losses** in health and schooling. Herds, small farms and public reserves take years to rebuild; degraded soils and depleted aquifers slow the recovery." } }, "history": [ { "edition": 2027, "rank": 4, "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "confidence": "medium" } ], "changelog": [ { "version": "0.5.0", "date": "2026-10-09", "change": "Rebuilt in the second pass from Food and water system shock: narrowed to a named event, two producing regions failing in one season; deliberate restriction of a shared river is no longer a route into the scenario; national impact lowered from 5 to 4; loads on strategic infrastructure, critical technology and macro-financial raised." } ], "citation": "GINC (2027). Scenario S06 Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis, Scenario Library v0.5. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios/breadbasket-failure" }