{ "note": "Second pass of the Scenario Library, October 2026. Three AI models worked first separately and then with sight of each other; a fourth made the final cut to GINC's brief. The trend side of the same pass, with the trend by scenario scores, is recorded at https://trends.ginc.org/data/second-pass.json.", "panel": [ { "key": "A", "model": "DeepSeek V4 Pro" }, { "key": "B", "model": "Mistral Large" }, { "key": "C", "model": "GPT-6.1" } ], "final_cut": "Claude", "scenarios": { "note": "The final twenty scenarios of the second pass. Each is built from the scenarios the three panel members settled on; ratings, loads and regional exposure are the median of the members who proposed it. The cut, and the reasons for it, are Claude's.", "not_kept": [ { "ref": "B: Displacement shock", "first_pass": "S08", "reason": "Held by one member. The other two judged that its loads on housing, health and public order are already tested by the regional war, the legitimacy rupture and the core disaster." } ], "first_pass": [ { "id": "S01", "title": "Geoeconomic confrontation", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S01", "note": null }, { "id": "S02", "title": "Single-supplier cut-off", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "folded", "into": "S01", "note": null }, { "id": "S03", "title": "Global financial crisis", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S02", "note": null }, { "id": "S04", "title": "Sovereign funding crisis", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "folded", "into": "S02", "note": null }, { "id": "S05", "title": "Maritime chokepoint closure", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S03", "note": null }, { "id": "S06", "title": "Hybrid campaign by a hostile state", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S04", "note": null }, { "id": "S07", "title": "Political legitimacy crisis", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S05", "note": null }, { "id": "S08", "title": "Mass displacement shock", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "retired", "into": null, "note": "Held by one member. The other two judged that its loads on housing, health and public order are already tested by the regional war, the legitimacy rupture and the core disaster." }, { "id": "S09", "title": "Energy supply shock", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "folded", "into": "S03", "note": null }, { "id": "S10", "title": "Catastrophic disaster in the core", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S07", "note": null }, { "id": "S11", "title": "Food and water system shock", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S06", "note": null }, { "id": "S12", "title": "Critical infrastructure collapse", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "folded", "into": "S04", "note": null }, { "id": "S13", "title": "Rapid AI diffusion shock", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S08", "note": null }, { "id": "S14", "title": "Pandemic with a novel pathogen", "orientation": "downside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S10", "note": null }, { "id": "S15", "title": "Superintelligence takeoff", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S17", "note": null }, { "id": "S16", "title": "Energy abundance breakthrough", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S15", "note": null }, { "id": "S17", "title": "Biomedical breakthrough wave", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S19", "note": null }, { "id": "S18", "title": "Great-power détente and peace dividend", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S13", "note": null }, { "id": "S19", "title": "Coordinated sovereign debt reset", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S11", "note": null }, { "id": "S20", "title": "Emerging-market growth breakout", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S12", "note": null }, { "id": "S21", "title": "Middle East regional settlement", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S14", "note": null }, { "id": "S22", "title": "Agricultural yield revolution", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S16", "note": null }, { "id": "S23", "title": "Digital public infrastructure leapfrog", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S18", "note": null }, { "id": "S24", "title": "Hundred-day pandemic defence", "orientation": "upside", "fate": "continued", "into": "S20", "note": null } ], "scenarios": [ { "id": "S01", "slug": "trade-bloc-rupture", "title": "Critical trade divides into rival blocs", "short_title": "Trade bloc rupture", "orientation": "downside", "family": "A", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "adversarial", "loading": { "defence-security": "Medium", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "The largest trading powers impose reciprocal tariffs, export controls and investment restrictions covering industrial inputs, advanced chips and digital services. Within six months, suppliers accounting for 40 per cent of several critical inputs become inaccessible to the opposing bloc. Affected input prices double and global trade volumes fall 10 per cent over two years. Neutral countries face secondary restrictions and incompatible standards. Substitution takes at least two years, testing continuity of essential production and the ability to preserve policy autonomy.", "winners_losers": "Alternative suppliers gain orders while dependent manufacturers, smaller trading states and consumers lose access or purchasing power.", "why": "Political separation and concentrated supply together test industrial continuity, economic autonomy and diplomatic alignment.", "key_trends": [ "Export controls & economic coercion", "Critical input supplier concentration", "Trade & investment fragmentation", "Economic security policy", "Technical standards competition", "Industrial policy competition", "Rare earth processing concentration", "Lithography & chip-tool chokepoints", "Pharmaceutical input concentration", "Tariff barrier normalisation" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Bloc trade rupture", "B: Bloc trade split", "C: Trade bloc rupture" ], "absorbs": [ "B: Single-supplier halt" ], "base": "S01", "base_title": "Geoeconomic confrontation", "also_continues": [ "S02" ], "decision": "Held by all three. Two members folded the single-supplier cut-off into it, and it is folded here: a supplier halt is the sharpest form the rupture takes.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 4, "L10y": 5, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S02", "slug": "global-funding-seizure", "title": "A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets", "short_title": "Global funding seizure", "orientation": "downside", "family": "A", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "weeks", "scope": "global", "origin": "accidental", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "Medium", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "A sharp repricing of technology and property assets triggers withdrawals from leveraged funds and mobile bank deposits. Global equities fall 40 per cent, cross-border private lending contracts 25 per cent and vulnerable sovereign borrowing spreads rise by 500 basis points. Funding markets remain impaired for nine months. Several governments lose market access as bank support, unemployment spending and refinancing needs converge. Nations must maintain payments and essential services while allocating losses without turning liquidity support into an unsustainable public guarantee.", "winners_losers": "Liquid governments and investors gain bargaining power while leveraged households, fragile banks and refinancing-dependent states bear losses.", "why": "It tests the transmission of private financial losses into sovereign funding and public service failure.", "key_trends": [ "Stretched asset valuations", "Non-bank finance growth", "Bank funding & deposit mobility", "Sovereign debt & interest burden", "Sovereign creditor fragmentation", "Financial market infrastructure resilience", "Capital concentration in AI", "Commercial property repricing", "External liquidity buffer requirements", "Central bank independence under pressure" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Sovereign debt spiral", "B: Debt spiral crisis", "C: Global funding seizure" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S03", "base_title": "Global financial crisis", "also_continues": [ "S04" ], "decision": "Held by all three. The first-pass sovereign funding crisis is folded in: the seizure is specified to reach sovereign borrowers, so the single-nation case is its national face.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S03", "slug": "regional-war-spillover", "title": "A regional war closes a globally important sea route", "short_title": "Regional war spillover", "orientation": "downside", "family": "B", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "days", "scope": "global", "origin": "adversarial", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "High" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "A regional confrontation becomes six months of conventional warfare involving a major power and its partners. A globally important strait loses 70 per cent of normal commercial traffic for 90 days, followed by six months of partial recovery. Strikes and cyber operations damage nearby ports, energy facilities and communications. Oil prices double and gas prices rise fourfold at the peak, and shipping insurance on affected routes triples. Nations must manage defence commitments, evacuation, displaced people and fuel rationing together, without assuming rapid victory or nuclear escalation.", "winners_losers": "Unaffected commodity suppliers and some defence producers gain revenue while belligerents, exposed allies and import-dependent economies lose security and output.", "why": "Actual warfare tests mobilisation and alliance obligations alongside the maritime and energy disruption covered by all three members.", "key_trends": [ "Great-power competition", "Alliance realignment & burden-shifting", "Long-range strike proliferation", "Contested maritime access", "Energy import dependence", "Defence industrial base & munitions", "Military logistics complexity", "Drone & autonomous warfare", "Asylum & migration system strain", "Strategic stockpiles & reserves" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Maritime war", "B: Chokepoint closure", "C: Regional war spillover" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S05", "base_title": "Maritime chokepoint closure", "also_continues": [ "S09" ], "decision": "Held by all three in two forms: two members specified an actual war, one a chokepoint closure with an energy shock. The war is kept as the event, with the closure and the energy price path of the first-pass chokepoint and energy scenarios inside it.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S04", "slug": "hybrid-coercion", "title": "Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout", "short_title": "Hybrid coercion", "orientation": "downside", "family": "B", "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 2, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "weeks", "scope": "national", "origin": "adversarial", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Low", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "Low", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "High", "china": "Low", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "Low", "latin-america": "Low", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "A hostile state conducts a deniable campaign below the threshold of war for 12 months: cable and energy sabotage, cyber intrusions, positioning interference and information operations. At its peak the adversary activates concealed access to power and telecommunications systems, and areas producing half of national output lose reliable power and communications for 72 hours, with essential services rationed for 30 days. Attribution remains contested and threats deter repair. The government must coordinate intelligence, operators and public communication, restore services by manual fallback and resist coercion without escalating prematurely.", "winners_losers": "The aggressor may gain coercive leverage while the target's citizens and operators lose reliability, confidence and investment.", "why": "Repeated coercion under uncertain attribution tests national resilience differently from open war or a single technical outage.", "key_trends": [ "State cyber intrusion & prepositioning", "Critical infrastructure protection", "Subsea cable & pipeline dependence", "Whole-of-society resilience", "Hybrid & grey-zone coercion", "Electromagnetic spectrum contest", "Foreign information manipulation", "AI-supported military decisions", "Drone & autonomous warfare", "Public communication in crisis" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Hostile state hybrid", "B: Hybrid coercion", "C: Hybrid coercion" ], "absorbs": [ "A: Infrastructure blackout", "B: Infrastructure collapse" ], "base": "S06", "base_title": "Hybrid campaign by a hostile state", "also_continues": [ "S12" ], "decision": "Hybrid coercion is held by all three. Two members kept a separate infrastructure blackout and one folded it into the campaign. It is folded here, with the blackout as the campaign's peak, which frees a place for the one wholly new downside scenario.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 4, "L10y": 5, "systemic": 2, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 2, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 2, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S05", "slug": "legitimacy-rupture", "title": "A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government", "short_title": "Legitimacy rupture", "orientation": "downside", "family": "B", "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 1, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "weeks", "scope": "national", "origin": "adversarial", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "Medium", "china": "Low", "indo-pacific": "Medium", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "A disputed election, succession or constitutional ruling produces competing claims to lawful authority. Fabricated evidence and coordinated intimidation intensify the dispute. For six months, recurrent protests and selective security-force refusals prevent normal administration in areas containing 20 per cent of the population. Revenue collection and essential service delivery fall, with national output 5 per cent below its previous path. Courts and official information become contested instruments. The state must restore accepted authority without normalising repression or permanent emergency powers.", "winners_losers": "Actors controlling information or coercion may gain temporarily while citizens, lawful institutions and firms needing predictable government lose.", "why": "Authority can fail even where physical assets and formal institutions remain intact.", "key_trends": [ "Election integrity & interference", "Foreign information manipulation", "Declining institutional trust", "Polarisation & populism", "Civil unrest & protest mobilisation", "Rule of law & judicial independence", "Executive overreach & emergency powers", "Synthetic media & deepfakes", "Official statistics & data capacity", "Erosion of rights & civic freedoms" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Legitimacy rupture", "B: Legitimacy collapse", "C: Legitimacy rupture" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S07", "base_title": "Political legitimacy crisis", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 2, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S06", "slug": "breadbasket-failure", "title": "Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis", "short_title": "Breadbasket failure", "orientation": "downside", "family": "C", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "natural", "loading": { "defence-security": "Medium", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "High" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "Medium", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "Medium", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "Extreme heat and drought reduce exportable grain from two major producing regions by 25 per cent in the same season. Export restrictions and fertiliser shortages prevent rapid substitution. International staple prices double for 18 months and physical import availability falls 15 per cent for highly exposed buyers. Water shortages also constrain domestic harvests and power generation in affected regions. Governments must protect nutrition and farm viability while managing scarce foreign exchange, cross-border water disputes and unrest over food distribution.", "winners_losers": "Unaffected exporters and holders of usable stocks gain while poor consumers, food importers and water-stressed producers lose.", "why": "Correlated harvest failures expose food and water dependencies that neither an energy shock nor a local disaster adequately tests.", "key_trends": [ "Climate change & physical risk", "Freshwater stress & transboundary water", "Agricultural soil degradation", "Staple food export concentration", "Fertiliser supply dependence", "Food storage & cold chains", "Strategic stockpiles & reserves", "Persistent nutritional deprivation", "Commodity dependence & price volatility", "Biodiversity & ecosystem loss" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Breadbasket failure", "C: Breadbasket failure" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S11", "base_title": "Food and water system shock", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by two. It sharpens the first-pass food and water shock into a named event: two producing regions failing in one season.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S07", "slug": "core-disaster", "title": "A major disaster disables the national economic core", "short_title": "Core disaster", "orientation": "downside", "family": "C", "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 1, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "days", "scope": "national", "origin": "natural", "loading": { "defence-security": "Medium", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Low", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "Medium", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "A flood, storm, fire, heat emergency or earthquake strikes the country's principal economic concentration. The locally relevant hazard is calibrated to affect 10 per cent of the population and cause direct damage equivalent to 8 per cent of annual GDP. Key transport, water and health assets operate below half capacity for a month. Reconstruction takes two years and insurance covers less than half the loss. The assessment tests evacuation, service continuity and recovery finance rather than imposing an identical physical hazard everywhere.", "winners_losers": "Reconstruction suppliers and resilient locations gain activity while uninsured households, exposed municipalities and disrupted firms bear lasting losses.", "why": "A geographically limited disaster can disable national capability where people, assets and services are concentrated.", "key_trends": [ "Climate change & physical risk", "Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog", "Urban population concentration", "Resilient construction & asset adaptation", "Early-warning coverage", "Dams, reservoirs & flood defence", "Urban cooling infrastructure", "Insurance retreat & insurability", "Disaster risk finance", "Local & city government capacity" ], "support": 2, "from": [ "A: Core disaster", "C: Core disaster" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S10", "base_title": "Catastrophic disaster in the core", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by two. The only natural-hazard test in the set.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S08", "slug": "ai-labour-shock", "title": "An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement", "short_title": "AI labour shock", "orientation": "downside", "family": "D", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "accidental", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "Reliable, low-cost AI agents make complete administrative and professional workflows commercially viable. Within three years, employers remove or radically redesign jobs representing 10 per cent of employment in highly exposed economies. Entry-level recruitment in affected occupations halves before training and benefit systems adapt. Productivity gains accrue mainly to model owners and leading adopters, while employment-linked tax receipts fall 10 per cent below plan. Nations must absorb displacement without losing skills pipelines, public revenue or trust in economic opportunity.", "winners_losers": "Leading adopters and model owners gain while displaced workers, exposed services exporters and states relying on labour taxation lose.", "why": "A sudden deployment threshold tests labour adjustment and ownership of productivity gains rather than merely extrapolating AI progress.", "key_trends": [ "General-purpose AI capability", "Frontier model concentration", "AI inference efficiency", "AI & knowledge-work automation", "Graduate skill mismatch", "Lifelong learning & digital reskilling", "Entrenched opportunity inequality", "Tax base erosion & coordination", "Digital & services trade growth", "Algorithmic accountability & bias" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: AI labour shock", "B: AI diffusion shock", "C: AI labour shock" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S13", "base_title": "Rapid AI diffusion shock", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three. Two members narrowed the first-pass AI diffusion shock to its labour-market face, with a stated share of jobs and a stated period.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 5, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S09", "slug": "cryptographic-trust-break", "title": "A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust", "short_title": "Cryptographic trust break", "orientation": "downside", "family": "D", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 1, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "days", "scope": "global", "origin": "adversarial", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Low", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "An adversary demonstrates a practical quantum attack against widely used public-key cryptography by decrypting intercepted material and forging selected digital signatures. Within a month, governments and financial operators must revoke vulnerable credentials and suspend some cross-border services. Previously collected sensitive data become readable. Emergency migration takes 12 months because embedded devices and supplier software cannot all be replaced immediately. Physical networks remain operating, but confidence in authentication, confidential exchange and legally valid digital transactions falls sharply.", "winners_losers": "Early migrators and trusted security suppliers gain while holders of sensitive historical data and operators of difficult-to-upgrade systems lose.", "why": "Digital trust failure exposes long-lived dependencies that ordinary infrastructure restoration cannot repair.", "key_trends": [ "Quantum computing", "Post-quantum cryptography transition", "Espionage & insider threat", "Cloud & edge computing", "Digital public infrastructure", "Data protection & digital rights", "Financial market infrastructure resilience", "Trade & logistics digitalisation", "Media provenance & authentication", "Technical & occupational skill shortages" ], "support": 1, "from": [ "C: Cryptographic trust break" ], "absorbs": [], "base": null, "base_title": null, "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by one member, and the only downside scenario with no first-pass ancestor. Kept because nothing else in the set tests the failure of digital trust while physical networks keep running.", "member_ratings": { "C": { "L2y": 1, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S10", "slug": "severe-pandemic", "title": "A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity", "short_title": "Severe pandemic", "orientation": "downside", "family": "E", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "weeks", "scope": "global", "origin": "natural", "loading": { "defence-security": "Medium", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "A novel respiratory pathogen spreads internationally before reliable detection and containment. It infects 30 per cent of the population during the first year, with an infection fatality ratio of 0.5 per cent before effective countermeasures. Peak hospital demand reaches twice available staffed capacity in highly exposed nations. Effective vaccines are unavailable at scale for nine months and workplace absence reaches 15 per cent at the peak. Governments must sustain ordinary care, essential production and credible communication while allocating scarce treatment.", "winners_losers": "Prepared countermeasure producers gain demand while vulnerable people, excluded learners and nations with weak staffed health capacity suffer most.", "why": "A pandemic simultaneously tests health delivery, public trust and national continuity in a way no other event reproduces.", "key_trends": [ "Pathogen emergence pressure", "Health workforce scarcity", "Health system demand imbalance", "Adaptable vaccine platforms", "Global health governance", "Public communication in crisis", "Regional medicines manufacturing", "Pharmaceutical input concentration", "Conspiracy movements & science denial", "Reproductive, maternal & child health" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Severe respiratory pandemic", "B: High-severity pandemic", "C: Severe respiratory pandemic" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S14", "base_title": "Pandemic with a novel pathogen", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 5, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S11", "slug": "debt-service-reset", "title": "A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity", "short_title": "Debt service reset", "orientation": "upside", "family": "A", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Low", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Low", "europe": "Low", "china": "Medium", "indo-pacific": "Medium", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "Official and private creditors adopt a common restructuring framework and conclude agreements covering at least 25 distressed states within 18 months. Debt service falls 40 per cent for five years through maturity extensions, interest reductions and selective principal relief. New concessional lending finances essential investment rather than creditor repayment. Participating governments regain room for health, education and infrastructure, but must demonstrate credible budgets and transparent procurement. The event tests whether fiscal release becomes durable capability rather than renewed borrowing or politically allocated spending.", "winners_losers": "Participating citizens and productive investors gain while creditors accept losses and excluded borrowers may face higher financing costs.", "why": "Debt resolution can change development prospects quickly but only capable public institutions can convert relief into lasting gains.", "key_trends": [ "Sovereign creditor fragmentation", "Sovereign debt & interest burden", "Concessional finance scarcity", "Fiscal rules & budget credibility", "Public procurement capability", "Corruption & state capture", "Development finance as influence", "Global South coalitions", "Domestic capital market deepening", "Slow growth & fiscal space" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Debt service reset", "B: Debt service reset", "C: Debt service reset" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S19", "base_title": "Coordinated sovereign debt reset", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S12", "slug": "market-access-opening", "title": "A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment", "short_title": "Market access opening", "orientation": "upside", "family": "A", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Medium", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "Medium", "china": "Medium", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Low" }, "summary": "Large emerging and advanced economies bring a trade and investment compact into force within one year. It removes most tariffs among members and mutually recognises selected services qualifications, digital trade rules and product traceability systems. Member trade rises 20 per cent and productive foreign investment 30 per cent over three years relative to the prior path. New corridors become commercially viable. Nations must qualify suppliers, expand infrastructure and mobilise workers quickly, while non-members face investment diversion rather than an automatic share of gains.", "winners_losers": "Competitive member exporters and connected labour markets gain while protected incumbents and bypassed non-members lose investment or market share.", "why": "A specific market-opening event tests readiness for shifting demand and investment without treating sustained growth itself as a scenario.", "key_trends": [ "Trade corridor competition", "Foreign investment slowdown & selectivity", "Shifting economic weight", "Emerging middle-class demand", "Africa's demographic & economic rise", "Regional trade agreement deepening", "Digital & services trade growth", "Non-tariff compliance & traceability", "Youth employment exclusion", "Technical & occupational skill shortages" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Market access opening", "B: Emerging growth breakout", "C: Market access opening" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S20", "base_title": "Emerging-market growth breakout", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three in two forms. Two members turned the first-pass emerging-market breakout, which was a trend continuing, into an event: a compact that enters into force.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S13", "slug": "great-power-detente", "title": "A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers", "short_title": "Great-power détente", "orientation": "upside", "family": "B", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 1, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "Low", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "Medium", "human-capital": "Low", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "The United States and China implement a monitored agreement that removes most recently imposed bilateral tariffs and relaxes selected technology restrictions. Crisis communication and military incident rules reduce the risk of confrontation around Taiwan without resolving sovereignty claims. Within 18 months, restricted trade worth at least 1 per cent of global GDP becomes accessible again. Nations must revise industrial policy, supplier arrangements and defence planning as competition persists under clearer rules. Protected producers and countries benefiting from trade diversion face immediate adjustment.", "winners_losers": "Trading economies and technology users gain while protected producers and intermediaries benefiting from rivalry lose rents or leverage.", "why": "System-wide détente tests adaptation to reduced rivalry without assuming that unrelated regional wars also end.", "key_trends": [ "Great-power competition", "Alliance realignment & burden-shifting", "Tariff barrier normalisation", "Export controls & economic coercion", "Technical standards competition", "Credibility of external commitments", "Rearmament & defence spending", "Arms control erosion", "Trade & investment fragmentation", "Dollar dependence & payment fragmentation" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Great-power détente", "B: Great-power détente", "C: Great-power détente" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S18", "base_title": "Great-power détente and peace dividend", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 1, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 3 }, "B": { "L2y": 1, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S14", "slug": "middle-east-settlement", "title": "A verified Middle East settlement restores access", "short_title": "Middle East settlement", "orientation": "upside", "family": "B", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "regional", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "Low", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "High" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Low", "europe": "Medium", "china": "Medium", "indo-pacific": "Medium", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Low", "russia-eurasia": "Low" }, "summary": "Regional governments and external guarantors implement a security framework covering commercial shipping, monitored ceasefires and staged sanctions relief. Inspection arrangements constrain specified missile and nuclear activities without requiring complete political reconciliation. Within 12 months, reliable shipping access returns on affected routes and war-risk insurance costs halve. Reconstruction commitments reach 10 per cent of participating conflict-affected economies' combined annual GDP over three years. Nations must deliver verification, public services and returning residents' integration while managing contested justice and armed groups resisting settlement.", "winners_losers": "Civilians, returning displaced people and reconstruction investors gain while armed intermediaries and businesses reliant on conflict premiums lose.", "why": "Verified regional peace tests reconstruction and credible commitments rather than the trade-policy adjustment tested by great-power détente.", "key_trends": [ "Persistent armed conflict", "Contested maritime access", "Private military & proxy forces", "Middle-power diplomatic leverage", "Energy import dependence", "Arms control erosion", "Trade corridor competition", "Infrastructure ageing & maintenance backlog", "State capacity & delivery", "Migrant integration demands" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Middle East settlement", "B: Middle East settlement", "C: Middle East settlement" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S21", "base_title": "Middle East regional settlement", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 3 }, "B": { "L2y": 1, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S15", "slug": "clean-power-threshold", "title": "Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale", "short_title": "Clean power threshold", "orientation": "upside", "family": "C", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "accidental", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "Medium", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "High" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "Independent commercial trials establish that a replicable combination of renewables, storage and firm clean generation supplies reliable electricity 40 per cent below prevailing new-build fossil costs across several climate zones. Standardised projects secure finance within 18 months. Early adopters reduce industrial electricity costs 30 per cent within five years, accelerating electrification and changing investment locations. Nations must connect projects, secure materials and reform power markets quickly. Hydrocarbon-dependent revenues weaken as expected long-term demand and asset values are revised down.", "winners_losers": "Energy importers and grid-ready industrial locations gain while high-cost generators and hydrocarbon-dependent states face stranded assets or falling revenue.", "why": "A demonstrated reliability-and-cost threshold can reorder industrial advantage faster than grids and public revenue systems can adjust.", "key_trends": [ "Enhanced geothermal", "Solar manufacturing cost decline", "Batteries & energy storage", "Grid expansion & demand flexibility", "Hydrocarbon revenue dependence", "Advanced nuclear fission", "Electrification of heat & industry", "Critical minerals supply constraints", "Reliable energy access gaps", "Data-centre power & water demand" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Clean power threshold", "B: Energy abundance", "C: Clean power threshold" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S16", "base_title": "Energy abundance breakthrough", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three. Two members replaced open-ended energy abundance with a threshold that can be observed: firm clean power at a stated discount to new fossil plant.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S16", "slug": "water-efficient-food-leap", "title": "A validated farming package raises water-efficient output", "short_title": "Water-efficient food leap", "orientation": "upside", "family": "C", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "Medium", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "Multi-country field trials validate a transferable package of climate-resilient crops, precision irrigation and soil management. Seed approval, financing and extension agreements launch simultaneous deployment across major low-yield regions. Within four growing seasons, adopting farms raise staple output 25 per cent while reducing water use per tonne by 30 per cent. Storage improvements preserve the extra harvest and international staple prices fall 15 per cent. Nations must achieve affordable smallholder adoption without worsening land concentration or excluding farmers from seed access.", "winners_losers": "Adopting farmers and food-importing consumers gain while high-cost exporters and farmers excluded from finance or seed access lose relative income.", "why": "A deployment-ready farming step tests food security and water resilience together while disrupting established agricultural trade.", "key_trends": [ "Agricultural technology", "Gene editing & cell therapies", "Freshwater stress & transboundary water", "Agricultural soil degradation", "Food storage & cold chains", "Persistent nutritional deprivation", "Food loss & waste", "Intellectual property access dependence", "Financial inclusion", "Adaptive regulation" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Water-efficient food leap", "B: Yield revolution", "C: Water-efficient food leap" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S22", "base_title": "Agricultural yield revolution", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three. The first-pass yield revolution is restated as a validated package deployed within four growing seasons.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S17", "slug": "automated-discovery-step", "title": "AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step", "short_title": "Automated discovery step", "orientation": "upside", "family": "D", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "accidental", "loading": { "defence-security": "High", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Medium" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "Medium", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "Medium", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "Independent laboratories verify that AI-directed research systems can formulate hypotheses, run automated experiments and produce useful results across three commercially important scientific fields. Licensed and open systems become available within a year. For qualifying programmes, development time halves and cost per validated candidate falls 50 per cent over three years. General superintelligence is not assumed. Nations must supply laboratories, compute, skilled evaluators and approval pathways to capture discoveries while managing dual-use access and concentration of intellectual property.", "winners_losers": "Nations with usable research infrastructure and capable regulators gain while slow adopters and research businesses dependent on long development cycles lose position.", "why": "Reproducible discovery automation provides a measurable scientific discontinuity without assuming unlimited intelligence or abundance.", "key_trends": [ "Automated AI research", "AI-accelerated science", "Compute scaling & AI infrastructure", "Advanced materials", "AI safety & governance", "Open-weight AI diffusion", "Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing", "Research & development intensity", "Skilled & research talent migration", "Biosecurity & dual-use biology" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Automated discovery step", "B: Superintelligence takeoff", "C: Automated discovery step" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S15", "base_title": "Superintelligence takeoff", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Two members replaced the first-pass superintelligence takeoff with a measurable step: verified automation of discovery in three scientific fields. One member kept the takeoff. The step is the Standard Severe case and the takeoff is carried as its Extreme setting.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 1, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 5, "national": 5 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S18", "slug": "public-service-leap", "title": "A public service platform reaches inclusive operation", "short_title": "Public service leap", "orientation": "upside", "family": "D", "likelihood_type": "idiosyncratic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 1, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "national", "origin": "negotiated", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "Medium", "europe": "Medium", "china": "Medium", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "Medium" }, "summary": "A government switches its principal payments and administrative services to interoperable public digital systems after independent security and inclusion tests. Within two years, 90 per cent of adults can use identity, payments and consent-based data exchange, with assisted offline access retained. Benefit delivery time falls 80 per cent and the tax compliance gap shrinks by a quarter. Procurement and service records become auditable. The test is reliable, rights-respecting operation while displaced intermediaries and corrupt gatekeepers resist the change.", "winners_losers": "Citizens and compliant small firms gain access and time while rent-seeking intermediaries lose income and poorly represented groups risk exclusion.", "why": "An operational public-service transformation tests state delivery and inclusion rather than technology procurement alone.", "key_trends": [ "Digital public infrastructure", "Public-sector AI adoption", "State capacity & delivery", "Data protection & digital rights", "Algorithmic accountability & bias", "Financial inclusion", "Civil service capability & pay", "Corruption & state capture", "Digital language representation gaps", "Citizen participation & deliberative democracy" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Public service leap", "B: Digital leapfrog", "C: Public service leap" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S23", "base_title": "Digital public infrastructure leapfrog", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 2, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 1, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S19", "slug": "chronic-disease-advance", "title": "Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness", "short_title": "Chronic disease advance", "orientation": "upside", "family": "E", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 3, "likelihood_10y": 4, "impact_systemic": 3, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "months", "scope": "global", "origin": "accidental", "loading": { "defence-security": "Low", "strategic-infrastructure": "Medium", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "Medium", "macro-financial": "High", "industry-trade-supply": "Medium", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "High", "africa": "Medium", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "Large trials establish that a low-cost combination of metabolic treatments and biomarker-guided prevention reduces major cardiovascular and diabetes complications by 30 per cent among eligible patients. Broad licensing and regional production make treatment affordable within two years. Adopting health systems reduce avoidable admissions 15 per cent over five years and improve working-age participation. Nations must identify patients, sustain primary care and adjust payment incentives. Longer healthy lives alter pension and workforce assumptions while providers dependent on treating preventable complications lose revenue.", "winners_losers": "Patients, effective primary-care systems and employers gain while treatment incumbents lose revenue and poorly served populations risk falling further behind.", "why": "Affordable prevention tests health delivery and fiscal adaptation more clearly than an unspecified wave of unrelated medical advances.", "key_trends": [ "Biomarker-guided precision medicine", "AI drug development", "Chronic disease & obesity burden", "Digital & AI-supported care", "Healthy lifespan divergence", "Health workforce scarcity", "Regional medicines manufacturing", "Age-related fiscal liabilities", "Intellectual property access dependence", "Gender participation divergence" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Chronic disease breakthrough", "B: Biomedical wave", "C: Chronic disease breakthrough" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S17", "base_title": "Biomedical breakthrough wave", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three. Two members narrowed the first-pass biomedical wave to its largest part: low-cost prevention of cardiovascular and metabolic disease.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 3, "L10y": 4, "systemic": 3, "national": 4 } } }, { "id": "S20", "slug": "outbreak-defence-succeeds", "title": "A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence", "short_title": "Outbreak defence succeeds", "orientation": "upside", "family": "E", "likelihood_type": "systemic", "likelihood_2y": 2, "likelihood_10y": 3, "impact_systemic": 4, "impact_national": 4, "onset": "weeks", "scope": "global", "origin": "natural", "loading": { "defence-security": "Medium", "strategic-infrastructure": "High", "critical-technology": "High", "government-effectiveness": "High", "human-capital": "High", "influence-cohesion": "High", "macro-financial": "Medium", "industry-trade-supply": "High", "energy-resources": "Low" }, "regions": { "north-america": "High", "europe": "High", "china": "High", "indo-pacific": "High", "south-asia": "High", "gulf-middle-east": "Medium", "africa": "High", "latin-america": "High", "russia-eurasia": "High" }, "summary": "A newly emerging pathogen is detected through shared surveillance and triggers a pre-agreed international response. Validated diagnostics arrive within 30 days and an effective vaccine receives initial authorisation within 100 days. Regional manufacturers supply enough doses to protect priority groups on every continent within six months. Early treatment and targeted vaccination keep staffed hospital demand below surge capacity in participating nations, avoiding general lockdowns. The test is equitable delivery, trusted consent and regulatory coordination; states outside the network still experience substantial disruption.", "winners_losers": "Populations inside trusted surveillance and supply networks gain while excluded states lose relative security and scarcity-dependent suppliers lose pricing power.", "why": "A successful live response tests whether surveillance, manufacturing and public trust operate as an integrated defence.", "key_trends": [ "Adaptable vaccine platforms", "Pathogen emergence pressure", "Global health governance", "Regional medicines manufacturing", "Public communication in crisis", "Synthetic biology & biomanufacturing", "Conspiracy movements & science denial", "Adaptive regulation", "Health workforce scarcity", "Food storage & cold chains" ], "support": 3, "from": [ "A: Outbreak defence succeeds", "B: Hundred-day defence", "C: Outbreak defence succeeds" ], "absorbs": [], "base": "S24", "base_title": "Hundred-day pandemic defence", "also_continues": [], "decision": "Held by all three.", "member_ratings": { "A": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "B": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 }, "C": { "L2y": 2, "L10y": 3, "systemic": 4, "national": 4 } } } ] } }