{
  "version": "0.3.0",
  "status": "Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted.",
  "load": {
    "points": {
      "High": 3,
      "Medium": 1.5,
      "Low": 0.75
    },
    "points_note": "A band on the capability scale is three points wide, so a High load moves a fully exposed, unprotected capability down one band.",
    "off_focus": "A capability group that the scenario does not single out takes its domain's load one level lower.",
    "exposure": {
      "High": 1,
      "Medium": 0.6,
      "Low": 0.3
    },
    "exposure_note": "Exposure is set nation by nation: a weighted blend of indicators from the 2025 World Factbook and the scenario's regional exposure. Where a nation does not report an indicator, its weight passes to the others.",
    "absorption_max": 0.75,
    "absorption_note": "Absorption is the nation's mean score on the scenario's buffer capabilities as a share of the top of the scale, times 0.75: a nation at the frontier on every buffer absorbs three quarters of the shock.",
    "best_practice_score": 15,
    "policy_note": "Run three times: no response (absorption zero), current plans (the nation's own buffers) and best practice (buffers lifted to Advanced where they are lower).",
    "exposure_bands": {
      "High": 0.6,
      "Medium": 0.35
    }
  },
  "capture": {
    "readiness_note": "Readiness is the average of the mean and the minimum of the nation's scores on the capabilities the scenario requires, as a share of the top of the scale. The minimum holds it down: the weakest required capability limits the gain.",
    "gainer_above": 10,
    "loser_below": -10,
    "exposure_note": "Gain and loss exposure are set nation by nation from indicators where one fits, and by region with named exceptions where none does."
  },
  "domain_map": {
    "defence-security": [
      "national-security"
    ],
    "strategic-infrastructure": [
      "strategic-infrastructure"
    ],
    "critical-technology": [
      "critical-technology"
    ],
    "government-effectiveness": [
      "governance-and-integrity"
    ],
    "human-capital": [
      "human-capital"
    ],
    "influence-cohesion": [
      "information-and-influence"
    ],
    "macro-financial": [
      "financial-strength"
    ],
    "industry-trade-supply": [
      "production-and-innovation",
      "trade-and-investment"
    ]
  },
  "energy_resources_groups": [
    "energy-infrastructure",
    "resource-infrastructure",
    "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure",
    "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure",
    "energy-technologies"
  ],
  "scenarios": {
    "S01": {
      "focus": [
        "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing",
        "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "global-value-chain-position",
        "economic-leverage-and-dependence",
        "trade-policy-and-market-access",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication",
        "industrial-and-sectoral-base",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "monetary-and-currency-capability"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "economic-leverage-and-dependence",
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "advanced-manufacturing",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "trade_open": 0.3,
        "bloc_trade": 0.25,
        "industry": 0.15
      }
    },
    "S02": {
      "focus": [
        "financial-stability-and-crisis-management",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "monetary-and-currency-capability",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "financial-regulation-and-integrity",
        "financial-infrastructure",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "labour-and-employment",
        "economic-output-and-productivity",
        "investment-attraction-and-projection",
        "health-system-capability"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "monetary-and-currency-capability",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power",
        "financial-stability-and-crisis-management",
        "financial-regulation-and-integrity",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "public_debt": 0.3,
        "low_reserves": 0.2,
        "trade_open": 0.2
      }
    },
    "S03": {
      "focus": [
        "maritime-power",
        "joint-command-projection-and-sustainment",
        "strategic-strike-and-missile-defence",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "resource-infrastructure",
        "transport-infrastructure",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics",
        "economic-leverage-and-dependence"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "resource-infrastructure",
        "maritime-power",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "alliances-and-security-cooperation",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.35,
        "energy_import": 0.45,
        "trade_open": 0.2
      },
      "exposure_exceptions": {
        "IRN": 1,
        "QAT": 1,
        "KWT": 1,
        "BHR": 1,
        "IRQ": 0.9,
        "ARE": 0.9,
        "SAU": 0.8
      },
      "exposure_exceptions_note": "Energy import dependence marks the importers this scenario reaches. These Gulf exporters import little energy but lie inside the default theatre, where exports stop and facilities are struck, so they are set by hand. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have some pipeline capacity that bypasses the strait."
    },
    "S04": {
      "focus": [
        "intelligence-and-assessment",
        "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations",
        "maritime-power",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure",
        "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies",
        "internal-security-and-order",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "alliances-and-security-cooperation"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "intelligence-and-assessment",
        "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "alliances-and-security-cooperation"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.45,
        "russia_neighbour": 0.2,
        "internet": 0.2,
        "urban": 0.15
      },
      "exposure_exceptions": {
        "CHN": 0.2,
        "PRK": 0.15,
        "MNG": 0.35,
        "RUS": 0.3,
        "BLR": 0.2
      },
      "exposure_exceptions_note": "A land border with Russia or Belarus raises exposure to hybrid coercion for most neighbours. These nations are set by hand because the border does not carry that meaning for them."
    },
    "S05": {
      "focus": [
        "political-institutions-and-civic-participation",
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "internal-security-and-order",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "transparency-oversight-and-accountability",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "force-generation-and-mobilisation",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "monetary-and-currency-capability",
        "investment-attraction-and-projection",
        "social-infrastructure"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "political-institutions-and-civic-participation",
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "transparency-oversight-and-accountability",
        "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.45,
        "youth_unemployment": 0.2,
        "low_income": 0.2,
        "inflation": 0.15
      }
    },
    "S06": {
      "focus": [
        "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure",
        "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "population-health",
        "early-childhood-development",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "internal-security-and-order",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "monetary-and-currency-capability",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure",
        "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "food_import": 0.35,
        "water_stress": 0.2,
        "low_reserves": 0.15
      }
    },
    "S07": {
      "focus": [
        "transport-infrastructure",
        "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "social-infrastructure",
        "health-system-capability",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "industrial-and-sectoral-base",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "health-system-capability",
        "social-infrastructure"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "hazard": 0.5,
        "urban": 0.2
      }
    },
    "S08": {
      "focus": [
        "artificial-intelligence",
        "advanced-education",
        "digital-and-ai-competence",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling",
        "labour-and-employment",
        "digital-and-services-trade",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "political-institutions-and-civic-participation",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "technology-adoption-and-diffusion",
        "artificial-intelligence",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "business-dynamism-and-entrepreneurship"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "services": 0.4,
        "internet": 0.3
      },
      "exposure_exceptions": {
        "IND": 0.85,
        "PHL": 0.85
      },
      "exposure_exceptions_note": "India and the Philippines are set by hand. Their exposure comes through exports of IT and business process services, which the services share of GDP and the share of internet users understate."
    },
    "S09": {
      "focus": [
        "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies",
        "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations",
        "intelligence-and-assessment",
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure",
        "financial-infrastructure",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "financial-stability-and-crisis-management",
        "digital-and-services-trade"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies",
        "quantum-technologies",
        "cyber-and-electromagnetic-operations",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "digital-and-ai-competence"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.4,
        "internet": 0.35,
        "services": 0.25
      }
    },
    "S10": {
      "focus": [
        "health-system-capability",
        "population-health",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "foundational-education",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics",
        "labour-and-employment",
        "social-infrastructure"
      ],
      "buffers": [
        "health-system-capability",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure"
      ],
      "exposure": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "urban": 0.3,
        "ageing": 0.2,
        "trade_open": 0.2
      }
    },
    "S11": {
      "required": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption",
        "transparency-oversight-and-accountability",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "health-system-capability",
        "foundational-education",
        "energy-infrastructure"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "financial-stability-and-crisis-management",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.05,
        "europe": 0.1,
        "china": 0.1,
        "indo-pacific": 0.4,
        "south-asia": 0.8,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.9,
        "latin-america": 0.7,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.4
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.2,
        "europe": 0.2,
        "china": 0.6,
        "indo-pacific": 0.1,
        "south-asia": 0.1,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.15,
        "africa": 0.1,
        "latin-america": 0.1,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.1
      },
      "loss_basis": "Losses taken as a creditor; higher financing costs for borrowers left outside the framework",
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss_exceptions": {
        "JPN": 0.3,
        "SAU": 0.3,
        "ARE": 0.3,
        "IND": 0.2
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "public_debt": 0.3,
        "low_reserves": 0.4
      },
      "gain_scale_by": "low_income",
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 1
      }
    },
    "S12": {
      "required": [
        "trade-policy-and-market-access",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics",
        "transport-infrastructure",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "technical-and-vocational-skills",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "investment-attraction-and-projection",
        "digital-and-services-trade"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.4,
        "europe": 0.5,
        "china": 0.4,
        "indo-pacific": 0.8,
        "south-asia": 0.9,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.8,
        "latin-america": 0.7,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.15
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.4,
        "trade_open": 0.3,
        "youth": 0.3
      },
      "gain_exceptions": {
        "MEX": 0.7
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.4,
        "europe": 0.4,
        "china": 0.5,
        "indo-pacific": 0.3,
        "south-asia": 0.25,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.2,
        "africa": 0.35,
        "latin-america": 0.3,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.2
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.6,
        "industry": 0.4
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {},
      "loss_basis": "Protected incumbent producers that lose market share to member exporters, and non-members that lose investment to members"
    },
    "S13": {
      "required": [
        "trade-policy-and-market-access",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication",
        "global-value-chain-position",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics",
        "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "alliances-and-security-cooperation",
        "investment-attraction-and-projection"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.8,
        "europe": 0.6,
        "china": 1,
        "indo-pacific": 0.7,
        "south-asia": 0.4,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.4,
        "latin-america": 0.4,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.2
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.4,
        "europe": 0.4,
        "china": 0.1,
        "indo-pacific": 0.5,
        "south-asia": 0.4,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.2,
        "africa": 0.2,
        "latin-america": 0.3,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.5
      },
      "loss_basis": "Capacity built behind tariffs and controls, trade and investment won by diversion, and leverage or security assumptions that depended on the rivalry",
      "gain_exceptions": {
        "KOR": 0.9,
        "TWN": 0.9
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {
        "VNM": 0.8,
        "MEX": 0.8,
        "MYS": 0.6,
        "THA": 0.6,
        "TWN": 0.6,
        "IND": 0.5,
        "RUS": 0.7
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.4,
        "trade_open": 0.3,
        "bloc_trade": 0.3
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.8,
        "bloc_trade": 0.2
      }
    },
    "S14": {
      "required": [
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "alliances-and-security-cooperation",
        "intelligence-and-assessment",
        "internal-security-and-order",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "social-infrastructure",
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "transport-infrastructure"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.2,
        "europe": 0.5,
        "china": 0.5,
        "indo-pacific": 0.5,
        "south-asia": 0.5,
        "gulf-middle-east": 1,
        "africa": 0.4,
        "latin-america": 0.15,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.15
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.5,
        "energy_import": 0.2,
        "conflict_neighbour": 0.2,
        "refugees_hosted": 0.1
      },
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.2,
        "europe": 0.05,
        "china": 0.05,
        "indo-pacific": 0.05,
        "south-asia": 0.05,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.1,
        "africa": 0.15,
        "latin-america": 0.2,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.35
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.5,
        "fuel_export": 0.5
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {
        "SAU": 0.1,
        "ARE": 0.1,
        "QAT": 0.1,
        "KWT": 0.15,
        "OMN": 0.15,
        "BHR": 0.1,
        "IRQ": 0.2,
        "IRN": 0.1,
        "RUS": 0.6
      },
      "loss_basis": "Oil and gas exporters outside the settlement that lose the risk premium, and suppliers of arms and other earners of the conflict premium"
    },
    "S15": {
      "required": [
        "energy-infrastructure",
        "energy-technologies",
        "resource-infrastructure",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "industrial-and-sectoral-base",
        "technology-adoption-and-diffusion",
        "technical-and-vocational-skills"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "sovereign-capital-and-external-financial-power",
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.7,
        "europe": 1,
        "china": 0.9,
        "indo-pacific": 0.9,
        "south-asia": 1,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.8,
        "latin-america": 0.6,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.4
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.3,
        "europe": 0.05,
        "china": 0.1,
        "indo-pacific": 0.15,
        "south-asia": 0.05,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.15,
        "latin-america": 0.2,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.5
      },
      "loss_basis": "Oil, gas and coal among a net exporter's main exports, and the public revenue and asset values that rest on them",
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss_exceptions": {},
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "energy_import": 0.5,
        "industry": 0.2
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.15,
        "fuel_export": 0.85
      }
    },
    "S16": {
      "required": [
        "agriculture-and-food-infrastructure",
        "water-sanitation-and-waste-infrastructure",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "financial-system-depth-and-access",
        "technology-adoption-and-diffusion",
        "transport-infrastructure",
        "technical-and-vocational-skills"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "structural-transformation-and-complexity",
        "export-capability-and-sophistication",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "trade-policy-and-market-access"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.2,
        "europe": 0.2,
        "china": 0.6,
        "indo-pacific": 0.6,
        "south-asia": 0.95,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.7,
        "africa": 1,
        "latin-america": 0.55,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.25
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "food_import": 0.25,
        "low_income": 0.25,
        "water_stress": 0.2
      },
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.5,
        "europe": 0.25,
        "china": 0.05,
        "indo-pacific": 0.2,
        "south-asia": 0.05,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.05,
        "africa": 0.05,
        "latin-america": 0.3,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.4
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 1
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {
        "USA": 0.5,
        "CAN": 0.6,
        "BRA": 0.6,
        "ARG": 0.8,
        "AUS": 0.6,
        "UKR": 0.8,
        "RUS": 0.6,
        "THA": 0.5,
        "VNM": 0.5,
        "FRA": 0.4,
        "URY": 0.6,
        "PRY": 0.7,
        "KAZ": 0.5
      },
      "loss_basis": "Farm income and cropland values in grain-exporting nations, highest where production costs are high"
    },
    "S17": {
      "required": [
        "artificial-intelligence",
        "semiconductors-and-advanced-computing",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "advanced-materials-and-manufacturing",
        "robotics-and-autonomous-systems",
        "research-talent-and-knowledge-creation",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "innovation-and-commercialisation",
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "technology-adoption-and-diffusion",
        "advanced-education",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "investment-attraction-and-projection"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 1,
        "europe": 0.85,
        "china": 0.95,
        "indo-pacific": 0.7,
        "south-asia": 0.5,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 0.35,
        "latin-america": 0.4,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.35
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.3,
        "europe": 0.5,
        "china": 0.3,
        "indo-pacific": 0.4,
        "south-asia": 0.5,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.3,
        "africa": 0.4,
        "latin-america": 0.4,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.5
      },
      "loss_basis": "Research and contract research businesses built on long development cycles, and research position in nations without laboratories or evaluators",
      "gain_exceptions": {
        "JPN": 0.9,
        "KOR": 0.9,
        "SGP": 0.9,
        "TWN": 0.85,
        "AUS": 0.8,
        "ISR": 0.85,
        "IND": 0.7
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {
        "IND": 0.7
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.7,
        "internet": 0.3
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.7,
        "industry": 0.3
      }
    },
    "S18": {
      "required": [
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure",
        "financial-infrastructure",
        "connectivity-cyber-and-trust-technologies",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "transparency-oversight-and-accountability",
        "public-integrity-and-anti-corruption",
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "digital-and-ai-competence"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "justice-system-and-fundamental-rights",
        "transparency-oversight-and-accountability",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "political-institutions-and-civic-participation",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.4,
        "europe": 0.4,
        "china": 0.35,
        "indo-pacific": 0.7,
        "south-asia": 0.85,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.5,
        "africa": 1,
        "latin-america": 0.8,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.5
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.4,
        "low_income": 0.4,
        "youth": 0.2
      },
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.25,
        "europe": 0.15,
        "china": 0.3,
        "indo-pacific": 0.25,
        "south-asia": 0.35,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.3,
        "africa": 0.35,
        "latin-america": 0.3,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.4
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 1
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {},
      "loss_basis": "Fee income of displaced intermediaries and gatekeepers; exclusion of poorly represented groups where safeguards are weak"
    },
    "S19": {
      "required": [
        "health-system-capability",
        "social-infrastructure",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "communications-and-digital-infrastructure",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "labour-and-employment",
        "lifelong-learning-and-reskilling"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.9,
        "europe": 0.8,
        "china": 0.9,
        "indo-pacific": 0.8,
        "south-asia": 0.9,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.9,
        "africa": 0.5,
        "latin-america": 0.9,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.9
      },
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.5,
        "europe": 0.5,
        "china": 0.5,
        "indo-pacific": 0.4,
        "south-asia": 0.15,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.15,
        "africa": 0.1,
        "latin-america": 0.25,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.35
      },
      "loss_basis": "Pension and long-term care liabilities in ageing populations, and the revenue of providers paid to treat preventable complications",
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss_exceptions": {},
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.4,
        "obesity": 0.4,
        "ageing": 0.2
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "ageing": 0.7
      }
    },
    "S20": {
      "required": [
        "health-system-capability",
        "biotechnology-and-health-technologies",
        "national-resilience-and-crisis-management",
        "information-environment-and-strategic-communication",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration",
        "regulatory-governance-and-strategic-controls",
        "social-infrastructure",
        "trade-facilitation-and-logistics"
      ],
      "adaptive": [
        "diplomatic-statecraft-and-global-networks",
        "fiscal-capacity-and-public-finance",
        "health-system-capability",
        "government-effectiveness-and-public-administration"
      ],
      "gain": {
        "north-america": 0.8,
        "europe": 0.9,
        "china": 0.8,
        "indo-pacific": 0.9,
        "south-asia": 0.9,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.6,
        "africa": 0.9,
        "latin-america": 0.8,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.6
      },
      "gain_weights": {
        "prior": 0.3,
        "urban": 0.3,
        "ageing": 0.2,
        "trade_open": 0.2
      },
      "gain_exceptions": {},
      "loss": {
        "north-america": 0.15,
        "europe": 0.05,
        "china": 0.2,
        "indo-pacific": 0.05,
        "south-asia": 0.1,
        "gulf-middle-east": 0.1,
        "africa": 0.2,
        "latin-america": 0.1,
        "russia-eurasia": 0.35
      },
      "loss_weights": {
        "prior": 1
      },
      "loss_exceptions": {},
      "loss_basis": "Standing outside the surveillance and supply network, and suppliers that depended on scarcity pricing"
    }
  },
  "likelihood": {
    "band_probability": {
      "1": 0.001,
      "2": 0.006,
      "3": 0.03,
      "4": 0.15,
      "5": 0.4
    },
    "band_note": "Each likelihood band is turned into a probability at the midpoint of its range; band 5, which is open-ended, is taken as 40 per cent.",
    "short_horizon_years": 3,
    "short_note": "The three-year probability is scaled up from the two-year band, assuming a constant yearly chance.",
    "long_horizon_years": 10,
    "idiosyncratic_note": "For scenarios that strike one nation at a time, a nation's probability is the scenario's probability scaled by its exposure relative to the average nation, so that more exposed nations are also more likely to be struck.",
    "independence_note": "Scenarios are treated as independent. They are not: one can trigger another, so the sum overstates some combinations and misses compounding."
  },
  "composites": {
    "vulnerability": "Expected loss: the sum over downside scenarios of probability times the fall in the capability index, as a share of the baseline index. Scaled so the most vulnerable nation is 100.",
    "worst_case": "The largest single fall across the downside scenarios, as a share of the baseline index, and the scenario that causes it.",
    "tail": "The mean of the three largest falls.",
    "breadth": "The number of downside scenarios in which at least one capability domain falls a band.",
    "resilience": "The share of the shock a nation's own buffers absorb, across all downside scenarios: one minus the fall under current plans over the fall with no response.",
    "policy_dividend": "Expected index points recovered by moving from current plans to best practice, weighted by probability.",
    "weakest_link": "The capability that is a nation's weakest point in the most downside scenarios.",
    "opportunity": "The probability-weighted mean net position across the upside scenarios, from −100 to +100.",
    "best_case": "The largest single net position across the upside scenarios, and the scenario that gives it.",
    "quadrants": "Nations are placed against the median of each index: well placed (low vulnerability, high opportunity), high stakes (high on both), insulated (low on both) and exposed (high vulnerability, low opportunity)."
  },
  "reverse": {
    "note": "The reverse stress test starts from an outcome and searches for the conditions that produce it. The outcomes are in the outcomes file. The search covers every scenario alone and every pair, at three severities, with current plans holding or failing.",
    "thresholds": {
      "failure": 3,
      "prosperity": 1.5
    },
    "thresholds_note": "A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.",
    "severity": {
      "major": 0.6,
      "severe": 1,
      "extreme": 1.6
    },
    "severity_note": "Standard Severe is the published case. Major is taken as 0.6 of its load and Extreme as 1.6. These multipliers are GINC assumptions.",
    "exceedance": {
      "major": 2.5,
      "severe": 1,
      "extreme": 0.2
    },
    "exceedance_note": "The published likelihood is the chance of an event at Standard Severe or worse. An event at Major or worse is taken as 2.5 times as likely and one at Extreme as one fifth as likely. These ratios are GINC assumptions.",
    "plans_fail_max": 0.5,
    "plans_fail_note": "A route may need current plans to fail, which sets absorption to zero. Plans are more likely to fail where buffers are weak: given the event, the chance is one half times the share of the scale the nation's buffers fall short by. A nation with buffers at 16 of 20 sees its plans fail one time in ten; one at 8 of 20, three times in ten.",
    "link": 0.25,
    "link_note": "Where one scenario is recorded as triggering the other, the second is assumed to follow the first at Major or worse one time in four, and at Severe or Extreme in proportion to their exceedance ratios.",
    "overlap": 0.3,
    "overlap_note": "Two unrelated scenarios in the same ten years compound only if they fall close together. The chance that they do is taken as 0.3, which is roughly a two-year window in ten.",
    "union_note": "A nation's likelihood for an outcome combines its routes, counting one route for each lead scenario so that routes sharing a scenario are not counted twice. It is an estimate, not an exact probability.",
    "up_note": "An upside scenario lifts the capabilities it loads, by the same points as a downside scenario lowers them: a group the scenario singles out takes its domain's load in full, and other groups in a loaded domain one level lower. The lift is scaled by the nation's capture rate from the capture test. This mirrors the load test; it is the least tested part of the method.",
    "max_routes": 3
  }
}