The Scenario Paper
A stable, versioned library of severe but plausible shocks, specified on a common grammar, rated for likelihood and impact and mapped to the capabilities each one stresses.
- Status
- In preparation
- Release
- TBC January 2027, Davos
- Ratings
model-panel-v0.5. Scores are provisional. In this second pass they are the median of the ratings proposed by three AI models working first separately and then together. They exist so the site can be built and tested. The 2027 Edition replaces them with the results of the structured expert elicitation.
Cite as
GINC (2027). Scenarios 2027: Scenario Library v0.5 Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios
Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.