Simulating Global Shocks and
Stress Testing National Resilience
- 20
- Scenarios, ten downside and ten upside
- 50
- Outcomes the reverse test starts from
- 197
- Nations simulated in every test
20 Global Scenarios
Twenty severe but plausible shocks, ten downside and ten upside, each set out on one grammar: what happens, how fast, how large and which capabilities it loads.
Load Simulations
10 Global Downside Scenarios
Economic & trade
Trade bloc rupture
Critical trade divides into rival blocs
Economic & trade
Global funding seizure
A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets
Geopolitical & security
Regional war spillover
A regional war closes a globally important sea route
Geopolitical & security
Hybrid coercion
Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout
Geopolitical & security
Legitimacy rupture
A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government
Energy, climate & resources
Breadbasket failure
Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis
Energy, climate & resources
Core disaster
A major disaster disables the national economic core
Technology & infrastructure
AI labour shock
An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement
Technology & infrastructure
Cryptographic trust break
A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust
Health
Severe pandemic
A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity
Capture Simulations
10 Global Upside Scenarios
Economic & trade
Debt service reset
A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity
Economic & trade
Market access opening
A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment
Geopolitical & security
Great-power détente
A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers
Geopolitical & security
Middle East settlement
A verified Middle East settlement restores access
Energy, climate & resources
Clean power threshold
Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale
Energy, climate & resources
Water-efficient food leap
A validated farming package raises water-efficient output
Technology & infrastructure
Automated discovery step
AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step
Technology & infrastructure
Public service leap
A public service platform reaches inclusive operation
Health
Chronic disease advance
Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness
Health
Outbreak defence succeeds
A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence
50 National Outcomes
50 national outcomes across the nine domains of national capability – the thresholds at which a nation breaks or breaks out. Each outcome is an end point for reverse stress testing: start with the outcome, work back to the conditions that produce it, and identify the scenarios most likely to lead there for all 197 nations.
Hard Power
Critical Technology
6- Failure outcomeBroad fall in critical technology
- Failure outcomeLoss of advanced technology base
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in critical technology
- Prosperity outcomeAssured space services
- Prosperity outcomeFrontier AI and compute
- Prosperity outcomeHigher-value manufacturing
Strategic Infrastructure
7- Failure outcomeBroad fall in strategic infrastructure
- Failure outcomeCollapse in energy security
- Failure outcomeFailure of digital lifelines
- Failure outcomeFood and water failure
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in strategic infrastructure
- Prosperity outcomeReliable low-cost energy
- Prosperity outcomeSecure food and water supply
National Security
6- Failure outcomeBroad fall in national security
- Failure outcomeDefence readiness failure
- Failure outcomeLoss of strategic deterrence
- Failure outcomeStrategic awareness failure
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in national security
- Prosperity outcomeMore deployable joint force
Soft Power
Human Capital
6- Failure outcomeBroad fall in human capital
- Failure outcomeEducation pipeline failure
- Failure outcomeHealth system failure
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in human capital
- Prosperity outcomeAdaptable skilled workforce
- Prosperity outcomeStronger health and biotechnology
Information & Influence
6- Failure outcomeBroad fall in information and influence
- Failure outcomeBreakdown of information trust
- Failure outcomeDiplomatic isolation
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in information and influence
- Prosperity outcomeStronger information environment
- Prosperity outcomeWider international influence
Governance & Integrity
6- Failure outcomeBroad fall in governance and integrity
- Failure outcomeBreakdown of state function
- Failure outcomeRule of law failure
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in governance and integrity
- Prosperity outcomeCapable digital government
- Prosperity outcomeTrusted public institutions
Economic Power
Financial Strength
4- Failure outcomeBroad fall in financial strength
- Failure outcomeLoss of financial stability
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in financial strength
- Prosperity outcomeDeeper long-term finance
Production & Innovation
4- Failure outcomeBroad fall in production and innovation
- Failure outcomeLoss of industrial capacity
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in production and innovation
- Prosperity outcomeResearch translated into value
Trade & Investment
5- Failure outcomeBroad fall in trade and investment
- Failure outcomeRupture in trade and supply
- Prosperity outcomeBroad rise in trade and investment
- Prosperity outcomeHigher-value international business
- Prosperity outcomeSophisticated export strength