DRAFT · Updated 9 October 2026

Data

Download every scenario, the edition, the grammar and the schemas as JSON and CSV, with licence, citation formats and versioning.

The scenarios

Scenario Library v0.6 and its editions. The site is a view of these files; every number on a page traces to a field in one of them.

FileContentsFormat
All scenariosThe 20 scenario records in one fileJSON
All scenarios, scorecardOne row per scenario: identity, ratings and the Standard Severe presetCSV
Overview cellsOne row per scenario and lens or regionCSV
Capability loadingOne row per scenario and working domainCSV
Edition 2027Ranking, movement, findings, judgements and release informationJSON
Edition 2027, rankingOne row per scenario with rank and ratingsCSV
GrammarSliders, presets, scales, regions, stakeholders, families, thematics and working domainsJSON
Domain mapWorking domains reconciled to the National Capability FrameworkJSON
Historical anchorsShared anchor records, referenced by scenariosJSON

The simulations

The tests run against every nation, their settings and the capability scores they start from.

FileContentsFormat
Vulnerability and opportunity indicesOne row per nation: both indices at three and ten years, worst case, tail, breadth, policy dividend and weakest linkCSV
Test resultsLoad and capture tests: one row per nation and scenarioCSV
Test results, fullEvery result with domain detail and run summariesJSON
Test settingsLoad sizes, exposure, buffers and required capabilities for each scenarioJSON
Capability scores197 nations × 73 capability groups, as used in the testsJSON
Exposure indicatorsNation-level indicators from the 2025 World Factbook, scaled 0 to 1JSON

The outcomes

The fifty outcomes and the reverse stress test that starts from each.

FileContentsFormat
OutcomesThe outcomes: each with its kind, capability domain, basket of capability groups and definitionJSON
Reverse stress testOne row per nation and outcome: likelihood, most likely route, headroom and leverCSV

The capability graph

The GINC Capability Dependency Graph v0.2.0: how a change in one capability group tends to move others. Its method and caveats are on the graph page, simulation.ginc.org/graph/.

FileContentsFormat
Edges (v0.2.0)Every edge with both groups' names and domains, 216 rowsPARQUET
Edges (v0.2.0)The same table as CSVCSV
Groups (v0.2.0)The 73 capability groups: identifiers, domain, dimension, description and position in the state vectorCSV

The record

How the set was built, what it was compared with, and the schemas the records follow.

FileContentsFormat
Second pass recordHow the model panel rebuilt the scenario set: the panel, what changed and the reasons for each scenario decisionJSON
BenchmarksReference scenario sets, with strengths, limitations and report linksJSON
Scenario schemaJSON Schema for a scenario recordJSON
Edition schemaJSON Schema for an edition recordJSON
Grammar schemaJSON Schema for the grammarJSON

Each scenario

Every scenario record on its own, as JSON and as CSV.

IDScenarioVersionFiles
S01Critical trade divides into rival blocs0.5.0JSON·CSV
S02A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets0.5.0JSON·CSV
S03A regional war closes a globally important sea route0.5.0JSON·CSV
S04Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout0.5.0JSON·CSV
S05A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government0.5.0JSON·CSV
S06Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis0.5.0JSON·CSV
S07A major disaster disables the national economic core0.5.0JSON·CSV
S08An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement0.5.0JSON·CSV
S09A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust0.5.0JSON·CSV
S10A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity0.5.0JSON·CSV
S11A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity0.5.0JSON·CSV
S12A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment0.5.0JSON·CSV
S13A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers0.5.0JSON·CSV
S14A verified Middle East settlement restores access0.5.0JSON·CSV
S15Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale0.5.0JSON·CSV
S16A validated farming package raises water-efficient output0.5.0JSON·CSV
S17AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step0.5.0JSON·CSV
S18A public service platform reaches inclusive operation0.5.0JSON·CSV
S19Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness0.5.0JSON·CSV
S20A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence0.5.0JSON·CSV

The trends that bear on the scenarios, with their scores against each scenario, the trend network and the attention data, are published at trends.ginc.org/data.

Licence

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0. You may share and adapt them for any purpose with attribution. Code is published under the MIT licence.

Citation

  • Edition. GINC (2027). Scenarios 2027: Scenario Library v0.4. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios
  • Scenario. Each scenario page and Library record carries its own citation, in the form: GINC (2027). Scenario S03 A regional war closes a globally important sea route, Scenario Library v0.5. scenarios.ginc.org/scenarios/regional-war-spillover
  • Dataset. GINC (2027). Scenario Library v0.4 [dataset]. Oxford: Global Institute for National Capability. scenarios.ginc.org/data

Stable addresses

Scenario identifiers and slugs are permanent. The download addresses on this page do not change between releases; the files carry their own version strings.

Persistent identifiers

A DOI will be registered for each Edition’s dataset at release, and for the Library at each minor version. Until then, cite the addresses above.

API

There is no API in this release. The files on this page are static and can be fetched directly. An API is planned for the mid-2027 release.

Versioning

Library versions follow semantic versioning: patch for wording and anchors, minor for parameter or loading changes, major for scenario additions, retirements or scale changes. Every change is a dated line in the change log and in the scenario’s own record.