Outcomes
The points in the capability framework where something can break or step up. A scenario is a cause with effects across many capabilities. An outcome is one effect, isolated: a named place in the framework crossing a threshold, whatever caused it. Outcomes are where the reverse stress test starts.
50 outcomes · 25 failure · 25 prosperity · 9 capability domains
Trends, scenarios and outcomes
Three kinds of object, each answering a different question.
| Kind of object | What it is | The question it answers | Example |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trend | A slow structural force | What is changing underneath? | Energy import dependence |
| Scenario | An event: a cause, with effects across many capabilities at once | What happens to us if this occurs? | A regional war closes a sea route |
| Outcome | An isolation point: one named place in the capability framework crossing a threshold, whatever caused it | What would it take for this to happen to us? | A collapse in energy security |
An outcome is defined on a basket of capability groups. A failure outcome is met when the basket's mean score falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when it rises half a band. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a nation in the Advanced band it means dropping to Established, which is serious but leaves it far above where a fragile state starts. Each result shows the band before and after.
The 50 outcomes
Domain: Set by rule: the whole of a capability domain falling a band, and rising half a band. Two for each of the nine domains. Named: A narrower isolation point: two to four capability groups, inside one domain or across several. Proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut. Nations with a route and typical likelihood come from the reverse stress test, over 10 years.
All 50 outcomes
ID | Outcome | Kind | Domain | Basket | Nations with a route | Typical likelihood | Leads most routes | Headroom |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O01 | Broad fall in critical technology The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Critical Technology Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 64 of 197 | none highest 0.6% | Cryptographic trust break 50 | ×4.4 |
| O02 | Broad rise in critical technology The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Critical Technology Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 58 of 197 | none highest 23% | Automated discovery step 21 | ×5.0 |
| O03 | Broad fall in strategic infrastructure The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Strategic Infrastructure Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 172 of 197 | 0.2% highest 1.5% | Regional war spillover 86 | ×2.6 |
| O04 | Broad rise in strategic infrastructure The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Strategic Infrastructure Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 63 of 197 | none highest 12% | Outbreak defence succeeds 23 | ×4.2 |
| O05 | Broad fall in national security The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | National Security Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 92 of 197 | none highest 1.8% | Cryptographic trust break 32 | ×3.4 |
| O06 | Broad rise in national security The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | National Security Domain | all 10 groups of the domain | 29 of 197 | none highest 6.6% | Automated discovery step 25 | ×7.5 |
| O07 | Broad fall in human capital The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Human Capital Domain | all 9 groups of the domain | 186 of 197 | 0.1% highest 1.1% | Severe pandemic 107 | ×3.0 |
| O08 | Broad rise in human capital The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Human Capital Domain | all 9 groups of the domain | 60 of 197 | none highest 11% | Outbreak defence succeeds 34 | ×4.5 |
| O09 | Broad fall in information and influence The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Information & Influence Domain | all 6 groups of the domain | 156 of 197 | 0.3% highest 6.0% | Cryptographic trust break 90 | ×2.6 |
| O10 | Broad rise in information and influence The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Information & Influence Domain | all 6 groups of the domain | 53 of 197 | none highest 5.3% | Outbreak defence succeeds 42 | ×5.1 |
| O11 | Broad fall in governance and integrity The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Governance & Integrity Domain | all 8 groups of the domain | 185 of 197 | 1.3% highest 7.3% | Legitimacy rupture 89 | ×2.3 |
| O12 | Broad rise in governance and integrity The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Governance & Integrity Domain | all 8 groups of the domain | 80 of 197 | none highest 21% | Outbreak defence succeeds 43 | ×3.7 |
| O13 | Broad fall in financial strength The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Financial Strength Domain | all 6 groups of the domain | 178 of 197 | 1.1% highest 4.2% | Global funding seizure 92 | ×2.4 |
| O14 | Broad rise in financial strength The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Financial Strength Domain | all 6 groups of the domain | 55 of 197 | none highest 6.0% | Chronic disease advance 40 | ×4.4 |
| O15 | Broad fall in production and innovation The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Production & Innovation Domain | all 7 groups of the domain | 165 of 197 | 0.2% highest 1.9% | Global funding seizure 48 | ×3.1 |
| O16 | Broad rise in production and innovation The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Production & Innovation Domain | all 7 groups of the domain | 52 of 197 | none highest 19% | Clean power threshold 26 | ×4.7 |
| O17 | Broad fall in trade and investment The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it. | Failure ↘ | Trade & Investment Domain | all 7 groups of the domain | 172 of 197 | 0.4% highest 3.6% | Regional war spillover 95 | ×2.6 |
| O18 | Broad rise in trade and investment The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it. | Prosperity ↗ | Trade & Investment Domain | all 7 groups of the domain | 70 of 197 | none highest 22% | Market access opening 30 | ×3.5 |
| O19 | Loss of advanced technology base The nation can no longer make, obtain or maintain the advanced chips, materials and space and quantum systems that its industry, services and defence are built on. | Failure ↘ | Critical Technology Named | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing · Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · Quantum Technologies · Space Technologies | 55 of 197 | none highest 0.7% | Cryptographic trust break 32 | ×4.6 |
| O20 | Assured space services The nation has dependable capacity and access to operate and protect the space services required for essential communications, observation, navigation and timing. | Prosperity ↗ | Critical Technology Named | Space Technologies · Sensing, Timing & Navigation · Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure · Space Operations | 32 of 197 | none highest 8.1% | Outbreak defence succeeds 17 | ×6.9 |
| O21 | Frontier AI and compute The nation can develop, deploy and sustain advanced computing and artificial intelligence systems for a wider range of economically and strategically valuable uses. | Prosperity ↗ | Critical Technology Named | Artificial Intelligence · Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | 58 of 197 | none highest 24% | Automated discovery step 41 | ×5.5 |
| O22 | Higher-value manufacturing The industrial base can repeatedly produce more complex, higher-value goods with advanced materials, capable facilities and deeper domestic production expertise. | Prosperity ↗ | Critical Technology Named | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · Advanced Manufacturing · Structural Transformation & Complexity · Robotics & Autonomous Systems | 50 of 197 | none highest 19% | Automated discovery step 33 | ×5.7 |
| O23 | Collapse in energy security Reliable and affordable energy supplies no longer meet essential household, industrial and public service needs. | Failure ↘ | Strategic Infrastructure Named | Energy Infrastructure · Resource Infrastructure · Energy Technologies | 128 of 197 | 0.2% highest 3.2% | Regional war spillover 90 | ×2.4 |
| O24 | Failure of digital lifelines Essential communications, digital payments and trusted electronic services can no longer operate reliably at national scale. | Failure ↘ | Strategic Infrastructure Named | Communications & Digital Infrastructure · Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies · Financial Infrastructure | 115 of 197 | under 0.1% highest 1.2% | Cryptographic trust break 81 | ×3.1 |
| O25 | Food and water failure Food supplies and safe water services no longer reliably meet basic population needs across substantial parts of the nation. | Failure ↘ | Strategic Infrastructure Named | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | 187 of 197 | 0.3% highest 4.1% | Breadbasket failure 78 | ×2.7 |
| O26 | Reliable low-cost energy The energy system supplies dependable power at sustainably lower cost while meeting stronger environmental and operating standards. | Prosperity ↗ | Strategic Infrastructure Named | Energy Technologies · Energy Infrastructure | 76 of 197 | none highest 23% | Clean power threshold 60 | ×3.5 |
| O27 | Secure food and water supply Farming, storage and water systems produce and deliver more with less, so that food and clean water are reliably available and affordable through bad seasons. | Prosperity ↗ | Strategic Infrastructure Named | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | 62 of 197 | none highest 11% | Outbreak defence succeeds 26 | ×4.2 |
| O28 | Defence readiness failure The armed forces cannot generate, command and sustain the deployable conventional capability required for their assigned national defence tasks. | Failure ↘ | National Security Named | Force Generation & Mobilisation · Land Power · Air Power · Maritime Power | 121 of 197 | under 0.1% highest 1.4% | Legitimacy rupture 55 | ×3.1 |
| O29 | Loss of strategic deterrence The safe, controlled and dependable operation of the nation's nuclear deterrent and associated warning systems can no longer be assured. | Failure ↘ | National Security Named | Nuclear Deterrence · Strategic Strike & Missile Defence · Space Operations | 40 of 197 | none highest 1.2% | Regional war spillover 34 | ×4.9 |
| O30 | Strategic awareness failure National authorities can no longer obtain, verify and maintain the timely operational picture needed for security decisions and force coordination. | Failure ↘ | National Security Named | Intelligence & Assessment · Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations · Sensing, Timing & Navigation | 103 of 197 | under 0.1% highest 4.2% | Cryptographic trust break 102 | ×2.6 |
| O31 | More deployable joint force The armed forces can maintain more deployable maritime and air capability and sustain coordinated joint operations for required durations. | Prosperity ↗ | National Security Named | Force Generation & Mobilisation · Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment · Maritime Power · Air Power | 27 of 197 | none highest 6.6% | Automated discovery step 23 | ×8.1 |
| O32 | Education pipeline failure Successive stages of education no longer equip enough young people with the knowledge and skills required for adult life and work. | Failure ↘ | Human Capital Named | Early Childhood Development · Foundational Education · Advanced Education · Technical & Vocational Skills | 189 of 197 | under 0.1% highest 1.5% | Severe pandemic 110 | ×3.2 |
| O33 | Health system failure Essential prevention and treatment are no longer reliably available and population health deteriorates beyond the system's capacity to manage. | Failure ↘ | Human Capital Named | Population Health · Health System Capability | 192 of 197 | 0.5% highest 3.7% | Severe pandemic 158 | ×2.1 |
| O34 | Adaptable skilled workforce Workers can acquire recognised practical and digital skills throughout their careers and secure sustained employment that makes effective use of those skills. | Prosperity ↗ | Human Capital Named | Technical & Vocational Skills · Digital & AI Competence · Lifelong Learning & Reskilling · Labour & Employment | 57 of 197 | none highest 11% | Outbreak defence succeeds 31 | ×4.3 |
| O35 | Stronger health and biotechnology Effective health technologies and capable care services deliver sustained improvements in healthy life and access to treatment across population groups. | Prosperity ↗ | Human Capital Named | Health System Capability · Population Health · Biotechnology & Health Technologies | 85 of 197 | none highest 26% | Outbreak defence succeeds 48 | ×3.5 |
| O36 | Breakdown of information trust People can no longer reliably obtain and verify information needed to understand public decisions, assess official claims and act on essential guidance. | Failure ↘ | Information & Influence Named | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | 171 of 197 | 0.5% highest 5.7% | Legitimacy rupture 93 | ×2.3 |
| O37 | Diplomatic isolation The nation lacks dependable access to the diplomatic, security and development relationships needed to advance essential interests and obtain practical cooperation. | Failure ↘ | Information & Influence Named | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · Alliances & Security Cooperation · Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | 165 of 197 | 0.2% highest 5.2% | Cryptographic trust break 106 | ×2.6 |
| O38 | Stronger information environment The public can quickly find trustworthy information and the nation's cultural and diaspora networks extend its influence. | Prosperity ↗ | Information & Influence Named | Information Environment & Strategic Communication · Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy · Diaspora & Global Communities | 55 of 197 | none highest 4.5% | Outbreak defence succeeds 52 | ×4.8 |
| O39 | Wider international influence The nation sustains wider trusted international relationships and can secure practical cooperation through diplomatic, development, educational and community networks. | Prosperity ↗ | Information & Influence Named | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · Development Cooperation & Global Assistance · Alliances & Security Cooperation | 58 of 197 | none highest 6.0% | Middle East settlement 29 | ×4.6 |
| O40 | Breakdown of state function Public authorities can no longer maintain binding decisions, basic administration, public order and coordinated crisis management across substantial parts of the nation. | Failure ↘ | Governance & Integrity Named | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · Internal Security & Order · Political Institutions & Civic Participation · National Resilience & Crisis Management | 188 of 197 | 2.5% highest 11% | Legitimacy rupture 80 | ×2.0 |
| O41 | Rule of law failure Public power is no longer reliably constrained by enforceable rights, meaningful civic participation, independent oversight and standards of integrity. | Failure ↘ | Governance & Integrity Named | Justice System & Fundamental Rights · Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | 181 of 197 | 0.7% highest 2.8% | Legitimacy rupture 93 | ×2.3 |
| O42 | Capable digital government Public administration delivers interoperable digital services that people can use competently and that meet tested standards of reliability, accuracy and inclusion. | Prosperity ↗ | Governance & Integrity Named | Digital & AI Competence · Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · Communications & Digital Infrastructure | 88 of 197 | none highest 25% | Outbreak defence succeeds 33 | ×3.2 |
| O43 | Trusted public institutions Public institutions apply rules predictably, protect enforceable rights and demonstrate effective integrity and independent oversight in their decisions. | Prosperity ↗ | Governance & Integrity Named | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability · Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · Justice System & Fundamental Rights | 85 of 197 | none highest 21% | Outbreak defence succeeds 29 | ×3.4 |
| O44 | Loss of financial stability The monetary, fiscal and financial systems can no longer sustain stable payments, viable credit provision and ordinary public financing without exceptional support. | Failure ↘ | Financial Strength Named | Financial Stability & Crisis Management · Financial System Depth & Access · Monetary & Currency Capability · Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | 181 of 197 | 1.8% highest 6.5% | Global funding seizure 78 | ×2.1 |
| O45 | Deeper long-term finance Households, firms and public investment programmes have broader access to well-governed long-term finance through reliable financial institutions and markets. | Prosperity ↗ | Financial Strength Named | Financial System Depth & Access · Financial Regulation & Integrity · Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power · Financial Infrastructure | 49 of 197 | none highest 5.5% | Clean power threshold 33 | ×4.7 |
| O46 | Loss of industrial capacity The productive base no longer sustains its previous range, complexity and capacity for making strategically important goods. | Failure ↘ | Production & Innovation Named | Industrial & Sectoral Base · Advanced Manufacturing · Economic Output & Productivity · Labour & Employment | 169 of 197 | 0.3% highest 2.0% | Global funding seizure 56 | ×3.0 |
| O47 | Research translated into value The nation consistently converts advanced education and research into useful products, services and processes with sustained practical adoption. | Prosperity ↗ | Production & Innovation Named | Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · Innovation & Commercialisation · Technology Adoption & Diffusion | 59 of 197 | none highest 19% | Automated discovery step 38 | ×5.0 |
| O48 | Rupture in trade and supply The nation can no longer obtain and move essential traded goods reliably or maintain workable access to international production networks. | Failure ↘ | Trade & Investment Named | Trade Facilitation & Logistics · Global Value Chain Position · Economic Leverage & Dependence · Transport Infrastructure | 178 of 197 | 0.8% highest 4.0% | Regional war spillover 134 | ×2.0 |
| O49 | Higher-value international business The nation sustains more internationally competitive service businesses and productive cross-border investment while retaining greater choice over external economic relationships. | Prosperity ↗ | Trade & Investment Named | Investment Attraction & Projection · Digital & Services Trade · Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | 70 of 197 | none highest 17% | Market access opening 44 | ×3.4 |
| O50 | Sophisticated export strength The nation sustains a broader range of sophisticated exports with dependable market access and a stronger position in international production networks. | Prosperity ↗ | Trade & Investment Named | Trade Policy & Market Access · Export Capability & Sophistication · Global Value Chain Position | 52 of 197 | none highest 19% | Great-power détente 25 | ×4.1 |
Coverage of the capability framework
Every capability group sits in its domain's two outcomes. The named outcomes reach 72 of the 73 groups between them.
| Capability domain | Capability groups | In a named outcome | Failure outcomes | Prosperity outcomes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10 | 10 | 2 | 4 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 10 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| National Security | 10 | 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
| Governance & Integrity | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Production & Innovation | 7 | 7 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 2 | 3 |
Likelihood by region
Mean likelihood over 10 years across the nations of each region, in per cent. Darker is more likely.
| Outcome | North America | Europe | China | Indo-Pacific | South Asia | Gulf and Middle East | Africa | Latin America and Caribbean | Russia and Eurasia |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad fall in critical technologyFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Broad rise in critical technologyProsperity outcome | 7.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructureFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructureProsperity outcome | 4.9 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broad fall in national securityFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Broad rise in national securityProsperity outcome | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broad fall in human capitalFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Broad rise in human capitalProsperity outcome | 10 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Broad fall in information and influenceFailure outcome | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Broad rise in information and influenceProsperity outcome | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrityFailure outcome | 0.3 | 2.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrityProsperity outcome | 14 | 4.8 | 11 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strengthFailure outcome | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Broad rise in financial strengthProsperity outcome | 3.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovationFailure outcome | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Broad rise in production and innovationProsperity outcome | 2.4 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investmentFailure outcome | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Broad rise in trade and investmentProsperity outcome | 8.4 | 2.7 | 7.4 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Loss of advanced technology baseFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Assured space servicesProsperity outcome | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Frontier AI and computeProsperity outcome | 9.4 | 5.9 | 17 | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Higher-value manufacturingProsperity outcome | 2.7 | 2.9 | 16 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Collapse in energy securityFailure outcome | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelinesFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Food and water failureFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Reliable low-cost energyProsperity outcome | 2.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| Secure food and water supplyProsperity outcome | 3.4 | 1.5 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Defence readiness failureFailure outcome | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrenceFailure outcome | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Strategic awareness failureFailure outcome | 0.3 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.7 |
| More deployable joint forceProsperity outcome | 0.8 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Education pipeline failureFailure outcome | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Health system failureFailure outcome | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Adaptable skilled workforceProsperity outcome | 6.0 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Stronger health and biotechnologyProsperity outcome | 15 | 7.5 | 11 | 3.9 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trustFailure outcome | 0.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
| Diplomatic isolationFailure outcome | 0.2 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Stronger information environmentProsperity outcome | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Wider international influenceProsperity outcome | 1.1 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Breakdown of state functionFailure outcome | 0.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Rule of law failureFailure outcome | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Capable digital governmentProsperity outcome | 17 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Trusted public institutionsProsperity outcome | 16 | 4.8 | 11 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Loss of financial stabilityFailure outcome | 0.7 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Deeper long-term financeProsperity outcome | 2.3 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Loss of industrial capacityFailure outcome | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Research translated into valueProsperity outcome | 8.2 | 3.7 | 16 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Rupture in trade and supplyFailure outcome | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Higher-value international businessProsperity outcome | 1.9 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Sophisticated export strengthProsperity outcome | 7.0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
↘ failure outcome · ↗ prosperity outcome. China is a region of one nation, so its column shows its own value.
How the reverse stress test reads
| Route | A condition that produces the outcome: one scenario or two together, each at Major, Severe or Extreme, with the nation’s current plans holding or failing. Each nation has its own routes, because exposure and buffers differ. |
|---|---|
| Likelihood | The chance over 10 years that at least one route occurs. A nation's likelihood for an outcome combines its routes, counting one route for each lead scenario so that routes sharing a scenario are not counted twice. It is an estimate, not an exact probability. |
| Headroom | How many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be to produce the outcome on its own, with plans holding. Below 1, the standard case is already enough. |
| Lever | For failure, the weakest of the buffers against the scenario that does most of the work. For prosperity, the weakest capability that scenario requires. It is where a change would move the result most. |
| Thresholds | A failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated. |
| Severity | Standard Severe is the published case. Major is taken as 0.6 of its load and Extreme as 1.6. These multipliers are GINC assumptions. The published likelihood is the chance of an event at Standard Severe or worse. An event at Major or worse is taken as 2.5 times as likely and one at Extreme as one fifth as likely. These ratios are GINC assumptions. |
| Plans | A route may need current plans to fail, which sets absorption to zero. Plans are more likely to fail where buffers are weak: given the event, the chance is one half times the share of the scale the nation's buffers fall short by. A nation with buffers at 16 of 20 sees its plans fail one time in ten; one at 8 of 20, three times in ten. |
| Two scenarios | Two unrelated scenarios in the same ten years compound only if they fall close together. The chance that they do is taken as 0.3, which is roughly a two-year window in ten. Where one scenario is recorded as triggering the other, the second is assumed to follow the first at Major or worse one time in four, and at Severe or Extreme in proportion to their exceedance ratios. |
| Upside | An upside scenario lifts the capabilities it loads, by the same points as a downside scenario lowers them: a group the scenario singles out takes its domain's load in full, and other groups in a loaded domain one level lower. The lift is scaled by the nation's capture rate from the capture test. This mirrors the load test; it is the least tested part of the method. |
| Limits | The search can only find routes made of scenarios in the Library. A failure whose cause has not been written will not appear, so an outcome with no route is not an outcome that cannot happen. |
Citation
Cite as
GINC (2027). GINC Outcomes v1.0.0: 50 outcomes across nine capability domains. scenarios.ginc.org/outcomes
Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.