Outcomes v1.0.0

Outcomes

The points in the capability framework where something can break or step up. A scenario is a cause with effects across many capabilities. An outcome is one effect, isolated: a named place in the framework crossing a threshold, whatever caused it. Outcomes are where the reverse stress test starts.

50 outcomes · 25 failure · 25 prosperity · 9 capability domains

Trends, scenarios and outcomes

Three kinds of object, each answering a different question.

Kind of objectWhat it isThe question it answersExample
TrendA slow structural forceWhat is changing underneath?Energy import dependence
ScenarioAn event: a cause, with effects across many capabilities at onceWhat happens to us if this occurs?A regional war closes a sea route
OutcomeAn isolation point: one named place in the capability framework crossing a threshold, whatever caused itWhat would it take for this to happen to us?A collapse in energy security

An outcome is defined on a basket of capability groups. A failure outcome is met when the basket's mean score falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when it rises half a band. A full band is the same fall for every nation: for a nation in the Advanced band it means dropping to Established, which is serious but leaves it far above where a fragile state starts. Each result shows the band before and after.

Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

The 50 outcomes

Domain: Set by rule: the whole of a capability domain falling a band, and rising half a band. Two for each of the nine domains. Named: A narrower isolation point: two to four capability groups, inside one domain or across several. Proposed by the model panel and settled in the final cut. Nations with a route and typical likelihood come from the reverse stress test, over 10 years.

All 50 outcomes

ID
Outcome
Kind
Domain
Basket
Nations with a route
Typical likelihood
Leads most routes
Headroom
O01
Broad fall in critical technology

The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Critical Technology
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain64 of 197
none
highest 0.6%
Cryptographic trust break 50×4.4
O02
Broad rise in critical technology

The 10 capability groups of critical technology, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Critical Technology
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain58 of 197
none
highest 23%
Automated discovery step 21×5.0
O03
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure

The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Strategic Infrastructure
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain172 of 197
0.2%
highest 1.5%
Regional war spillover 86×2.6
O04
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure

The 10 capability groups of strategic infrastructure, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Strategic Infrastructure
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain63 of 197
none
highest 12%
Outbreak defence succeeds 23×4.2
O05
Broad fall in national security

The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
National Security
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain92 of 197
none
highest 1.8%
Cryptographic trust break 32×3.4
O06
Broad rise in national security

The 10 capability groups of national security, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
National Security
Domain
all 10 groups of the domain29 of 197
none
highest 6.6%
Automated discovery step 25×7.5
O07
Broad fall in human capital

The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Human Capital
Domain
all 9 groups of the domain186 of 197
0.1%
highest 1.1%
Severe pandemic 107×3.0
O08
Broad rise in human capital

The 9 capability groups of human capital, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Human Capital
Domain
all 9 groups of the domain60 of 197
none
highest 11%
Outbreak defence succeeds 34×4.5
O09
Broad fall in information and influence

The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Information & Influence
Domain
all 6 groups of the domain156 of 197
0.3%
highest 6.0%
Cryptographic trust break 90×2.6
O10
Broad rise in information and influence

The 6 capability groups of information and influence, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Information & Influence
Domain
all 6 groups of the domain53 of 197
none
highest 5.3%
Outbreak defence succeeds 42×5.1
O11
Broad fall in governance and integrity

The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Governance & Integrity
Domain
all 8 groups of the domain185 of 197
1.3%
highest 7.3%
Legitimacy rupture 89×2.3
O12
Broad rise in governance and integrity

The 8 capability groups of governance and integrity, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Governance & Integrity
Domain
all 8 groups of the domain80 of 197
none
highest 21%
Outbreak defence succeeds 43×3.7
O13
Broad fall in financial strength

The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Financial Strength
Domain
all 6 groups of the domain178 of 197
1.1%
highest 4.2%
Global funding seizure 92×2.4
O14
Broad rise in financial strength

The 6 capability groups of financial strength, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Financial Strength
Domain
all 6 groups of the domain55 of 197
none
highest 6.0%
Chronic disease advance 40×4.4
O15
Broad fall in production and innovation

The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Production & Innovation
Domain
all 7 groups of the domain165 of 197
0.2%
highest 1.9%
Global funding seizure 48×3.1
O16
Broad rise in production and innovation

The 7 capability groups of production and innovation, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Production & Innovation
Domain
all 7 groups of the domain52 of 197
none
highest 19%
Clean power threshold 26×4.7
O17
Broad fall in trade and investment

The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, fall a full band: the whole domain is weaker, not one part of it.

Failure ↘
Trade & Investment
Domain
all 7 groups of the domain172 of 197
0.4%
highest 3.6%
Regional war spillover 95×2.6
O18
Broad rise in trade and investment

The 7 capability groups of trade and investment, taken together, rise half a band: the whole domain has stepped up, not one part of it.

Prosperity ↗
Trade & Investment
Domain
all 7 groups of the domain70 of 197
none
highest 22%
Market access opening 30×3.5
O19
Loss of advanced technology base

The nation can no longer make, obtain or maintain the advanced chips, materials and space and quantum systems that its industry, services and defence are built on.

Failure ↘
Critical Technology
Named
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing · Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · Quantum Technologies · Space Technologies55 of 197
none
highest 0.7%
Cryptographic trust break 32×4.6
O20
Assured space services

The nation has dependable capacity and access to operate and protect the space services required for essential communications, observation, navigation and timing.

Prosperity ↗
Critical Technology
Named
Space Technologies · Sensing, Timing & Navigation · Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure · Space Operations32 of 197
none
highest 8.1%
Outbreak defence succeeds 17×6.9
O21
Frontier AI and compute

The nation can develop, deploy and sustain advanced computing and artificial intelligence systems for a wider range of economically and strategically valuable uses.

Prosperity ↗
Critical Technology
Named
Artificial Intelligence · Semiconductors & Advanced Computing58 of 197
none
highest 24%
Automated discovery step 41×5.5
O22
Higher-value manufacturing

The industrial base can repeatedly produce more complex, higher-value goods with advanced materials, capable facilities and deeper domestic production expertise.

Prosperity ↗
Critical Technology
Named
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing · Advanced Manufacturing · Structural Transformation & Complexity · Robotics & Autonomous Systems50 of 197
none
highest 19%
Automated discovery step 33×5.7
O23
Collapse in energy security

Reliable and affordable energy supplies no longer meet essential household, industrial and public service needs.

Failure ↘
Strategic Infrastructure
Named
Energy Infrastructure · Resource Infrastructure · Energy Technologies128 of 197
0.2%
highest 3.2%
Regional war spillover 90×2.4
O24
Failure of digital lifelines

Essential communications, digital payments and trusted electronic services can no longer operate reliably at national scale.

Failure ↘
Strategic Infrastructure
Named
Communications & Digital Infrastructure · Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies · Financial Infrastructure115 of 197
under 0.1%
highest 1.2%
Cryptographic trust break 81×3.1
O25
Food and water failure

Food supplies and safe water services no longer reliably meet basic population needs across substantial parts of the nation.

Failure ↘
Strategic Infrastructure
Named
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure187 of 197
0.3%
highest 4.1%
Breadbasket failure 78×2.7
O26
Reliable low-cost energy

The energy system supplies dependable power at sustainably lower cost while meeting stronger environmental and operating standards.

Prosperity ↗
Strategic Infrastructure
Named
Energy Technologies · Energy Infrastructure76 of 197
none
highest 23%
Clean power threshold 60×3.5
O27
Secure food and water supply

Farming, storage and water systems produce and deliver more with less, so that food and clean water are reliably available and affordable through bad seasons.

Prosperity ↗
Strategic Infrastructure
Named
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure · Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure62 of 197
none
highest 11%
Outbreak defence succeeds 26×4.2
O28
Defence readiness failure

The armed forces cannot generate, command and sustain the deployable conventional capability required for their assigned national defence tasks.

Failure ↘
National Security
Named
Force Generation & Mobilisation · Land Power · Air Power · Maritime Power121 of 197
under 0.1%
highest 1.4%
Legitimacy rupture 55×3.1
O29
Loss of strategic deterrence

The safe, controlled and dependable operation of the nation's nuclear deterrent and associated warning systems can no longer be assured.

Failure ↘
National Security
Named
Nuclear Deterrence · Strategic Strike & Missile Defence · Space Operations40 of 197
none
highest 1.2%
Regional war spillover 34×4.9
O30
Strategic awareness failure

National authorities can no longer obtain, verify and maintain the timely operational picture needed for security decisions and force coordination.

Failure ↘
National Security
Named
Intelligence & Assessment · Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations · Sensing, Timing & Navigation103 of 197
under 0.1%
highest 4.2%
Cryptographic trust break 102×2.6
O31
More deployable joint force

The armed forces can maintain more deployable maritime and air capability and sustain coordinated joint operations for required durations.

Prosperity ↗
National Security
Named
Force Generation & Mobilisation · Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment · Maritime Power · Air Power27 of 197
none
highest 6.6%
Automated discovery step 23×8.1
O32
Education pipeline failure

Successive stages of education no longer equip enough young people with the knowledge and skills required for adult life and work.

Failure ↘
Human Capital
Named
Early Childhood Development · Foundational Education · Advanced Education · Technical & Vocational Skills189 of 197
under 0.1%
highest 1.5%
Severe pandemic 110×3.2
O33
Health system failure

Essential prevention and treatment are no longer reliably available and population health deteriorates beyond the system's capacity to manage.

Failure ↘
Human Capital
Named
Population Health · Health System Capability192 of 197
0.5%
highest 3.7%
Severe pandemic 158×2.1
O34
Adaptable skilled workforce

Workers can acquire recognised practical and digital skills throughout their careers and secure sustained employment that makes effective use of those skills.

Prosperity ↗
Human Capital
Named
Technical & Vocational Skills · Digital & AI Competence · Lifelong Learning & Reskilling · Labour & Employment57 of 197
none
highest 11%
Outbreak defence succeeds 31×4.3
O35
Stronger health and biotechnology

Effective health technologies and capable care services deliver sustained improvements in healthy life and access to treatment across population groups.

Prosperity ↗
Human Capital
Named
Health System Capability · Population Health · Biotechnology & Health Technologies85 of 197
none
highest 26%
Outbreak defence succeeds 48×3.5
O36
Breakdown of information trust

People can no longer reliably obtain and verify information needed to understand public decisions, assess official claims and act on essential guidance.

Failure ↘
Information & Influence
Named
Information Environment & Strategic Communication · Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability171 of 197
0.5%
highest 5.7%
Legitimacy rupture 93×2.3
O37
Diplomatic isolation

The nation lacks dependable access to the diplomatic, security and development relationships needed to advance essential interests and obtain practical cooperation.

Failure ↘
Information & Influence
Named
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · Alliances & Security Cooperation · Development Cooperation & Global Assistance165 of 197
0.2%
highest 5.2%
Cryptographic trust break 106×2.6
O38
Stronger information environment

The public can quickly find trustworthy information and the nation's cultural and diaspora networks extend its influence.

Prosperity ↗
Information & Influence
Named
Information Environment & Strategic Communication · Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy · Diaspora & Global Communities55 of 197
none
highest 4.5%
Outbreak defence succeeds 52×4.8
O39
Wider international influence

The nation sustains wider trusted international relationships and can secure practical cooperation through diplomatic, development, educational and community networks.

Prosperity ↗
Information & Influence
Named
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks · Development Cooperation & Global Assistance · Alliances & Security Cooperation58 of 197
none
highest 6.0%
Middle East settlement 29×4.6
O40
Breakdown of state function

Public authorities can no longer maintain binding decisions, basic administration, public order and coordinated crisis management across substantial parts of the nation.

Failure ↘
Governance & Integrity
Named
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · Internal Security & Order · Political Institutions & Civic Participation · National Resilience & Crisis Management188 of 197
2.5%
highest 11%
Legitimacy rupture 80×2.0
O41
Rule of law failure

Public power is no longer reliably constrained by enforceable rights, meaningful civic participation, independent oversight and standards of integrity.

Failure ↘
Governance & Integrity
Named
Justice System & Fundamental Rights · Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability181 of 197
0.7%
highest 2.8%
Legitimacy rupture 93×2.3
O42
Capable digital government

Public administration delivers interoperable digital services that people can use competently and that meet tested standards of reliability, accuracy and inclusion.

Prosperity ↗
Governance & Integrity
Named
Digital & AI Competence · Government Effectiveness & Public Administration · Communications & Digital Infrastructure88 of 197
none
highest 25%
Outbreak defence succeeds 33×3.2
O43
Trusted public institutions

Public institutions apply rules predictably, protect enforceable rights and demonstrate effective integrity and independent oversight in their decisions.

Prosperity ↗
Governance & Integrity
Named
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption · Transparency, Oversight & Accountability · Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls · Justice System & Fundamental Rights85 of 197
none
highest 21%
Outbreak defence succeeds 29×3.4
O44
Loss of financial stability

The monetary, fiscal and financial systems can no longer sustain stable payments, viable credit provision and ordinary public financing without exceptional support.

Failure ↘
Financial Strength
Named
Financial Stability & Crisis Management · Financial System Depth & Access · Monetary & Currency Capability · Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance181 of 197
1.8%
highest 6.5%
Global funding seizure 78×2.1
O45
Deeper long-term finance

Households, firms and public investment programmes have broader access to well-governed long-term finance through reliable financial institutions and markets.

Prosperity ↗
Financial Strength
Named
Financial System Depth & Access · Financial Regulation & Integrity · Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power · Financial Infrastructure49 of 197
none
highest 5.5%
Clean power threshold 33×4.7
O46
Loss of industrial capacity

The productive base no longer sustains its previous range, complexity and capacity for making strategically important goods.

Failure ↘
Production & Innovation
Named
Industrial & Sectoral Base · Advanced Manufacturing · Economic Output & Productivity · Labour & Employment169 of 197
0.3%
highest 2.0%
Global funding seizure 56×3.0
O47
Research translated into value

The nation consistently converts advanced education and research into useful products, services and processes with sustained practical adoption.

Prosperity ↗
Production & Innovation
Named
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation · Innovation & Commercialisation · Technology Adoption & Diffusion59 of 197
none
highest 19%
Automated discovery step 38×5.0
O48
Rupture in trade and supply

The nation can no longer obtain and move essential traded goods reliably or maintain workable access to international production networks.

Failure ↘
Trade & Investment
Named
Trade Facilitation & Logistics · Global Value Chain Position · Economic Leverage & Dependence · Transport Infrastructure178 of 197
0.8%
highest 4.0%
Regional war spillover 134×2.0
O49
Higher-value international business

The nation sustains more internationally competitive service businesses and productive cross-border investment while retaining greater choice over external economic relationships.

Prosperity ↗
Trade & Investment
Named
Investment Attraction & Projection · Digital & Services Trade · Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship70 of 197
none
highest 17%
Market access opening 44×3.4
O50
Sophisticated export strength

The nation sustains a broader range of sophisticated exports with dependable market access and a stronger position in international production networks.

Prosperity ↗
Trade & Investment
Named
Trade Policy & Market Access · Export Capability & Sophistication · Global Value Chain Position52 of 197
none
highest 19%
Great-power détente 25×4.1

Coverage of the capability framework

Every capability group sits in its domain's two outcomes. The named outcomes reach 72 of the 73 groups between them.

Capability domainCapability groupsIn a named outcomeFailure outcomesProsperity outcomes
Critical Technology101024
Strategic Infrastructure10943
National Security101042
Human Capital9933
Information & Influence6633
Governance & Integrity8833
Financial Strength6622
Production & Innovation7722
Trade & Investment7723

Likelihood by region

Mean likelihood over 10 years across the nations of each region, in per cent. Darker is more likely.

OutcomeNorth AmericaEuropeChinaIndo-PacificSouth AsiaGulf and Middle EastAfricaLatin America and CaribbeanRussia and Eurasia
Broad fall in critical technologyFailure outcome0.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.1
Broad rise in critical technologyProsperity outcome7.84.54.82.90.20.60.00.10.1
Broad fall in strategic infrastructureFailure outcome0.10.50.10.30.20.40.20.10.5
Broad rise in strategic infrastructureProsperity outcome4.92.54.51.60.20.50.00.00.0
Broad fall in national securityFailure outcome0.10.40.10.20.10.30.00.00.4
Broad rise in national securityProsperity outcome0.80.43.00.50.00.10.00.00.0
Broad fall in human capitalFailure outcome0.10.30.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
Broad rise in human capitalProsperity outcome102.34.61.50.10.50.00.10.1
Broad fall in information and influenceFailure outcome0.21.00.10.40.20.50.10.10.8
Broad rise in information and influenceProsperity outcome0.80.51.10.60.00.20.00.00.0
Broad fall in governance and integrityFailure outcome0.32.00.31.91.21.41.01.01.9
Broad rise in governance and integrityProsperity outcome144.8112.90.51.20.10.20.2
Broad fall in financial strengthFailure outcome0.51.50.40.81.21.01.31.30.9
Broad rise in financial strengthProsperity outcome3.81.31.10.60.00.20.00.00.0
Broad fall in production and innovationFailure outcome0.20.60.10.20.20.20.10.30.2
Broad rise in production and innovationProsperity outcome2.42.56.71.80.10.30.00.00.0
Broad fall in trade and investmentFailure outcome0.21.00.20.50.30.50.30.40.5
Broad rise in trade and investmentProsperity outcome8.42.77.42.20.10.30.00.00.0
Loss of advanced technology baseFailure outcome0.10.10.10.10.00.00.00.00.0
Assured space servicesProsperity outcome1.10.93.10.80.00.10.00.00.0
Frontier AI and computeProsperity outcome9.45.9173.50.41.20.00.00.1
Higher-value manufacturingProsperity outcome2.72.9162.10.10.30.00.00.0
Collapse in energy securityFailure outcome0.01.00.20.40.30.60.20.10.8
Failure of digital lifelinesFailure outcome0.10.60.10.20.00.20.00.00.5
Food and water failureFailure outcome0.10.20.20.40.81.11.10.30.3
Reliable low-cost energyProsperity outcome2.05.40.03.00.60.80.10.10.0
Secure food and water supplyProsperity outcome3.41.55.51.30.30.40.10.00.0
Defence readiness failureFailure outcome0.00.30.00.20.10.50.10.10.3
Loss of strategic deterrenceFailure outcome0.00.00.00.10.00.10.00.00.0
Strategic awareness failureFailure outcome0.31.30.10.50.00.60.00.11.7
More deployable joint forceProsperity outcome0.80.43.00.50.00.10.00.00.0
Education pipeline failureFailure outcome0.00.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.1
Health system failureFailure outcome0.10.70.30.70.50.50.90.70.5
Adaptable skilled workforceProsperity outcome6.01.43.61.10.10.20.00.00.0
Stronger health and biotechnologyProsperity outcome157.5113.90.22.10.10.70.8
Breakdown of information trustFailure outcome0.21.20.10.50.60.80.30.41.3
Diplomatic isolationFailure outcome0.20.90.10.50.10.40.10.10.8
Stronger information environmentProsperity outcome0.90.80.80.60.00.10.00.00.0
Wider international influenceProsperity outcome1.10.71.10.70.00.30.00.00.0
Breakdown of state functionFailure outcome0.73.90.53.62.22.82.12.04.3
Rule of law failureFailure outcome0.11.00.10.80.70.90.60.51.1
Capable digital governmentProsperity outcome175.59.53.10.91.50.20.30.2
Trusted public institutionsProsperity outcome164.8113.20.81.20.10.30.2
Loss of financial stabilityFailure outcome0.72.40.51.32.01.62.32.11.4
Deeper long-term financeProsperity outcome2.30.93.30.50.10.10.00.00.0
Loss of industrial capacityFailure outcome0.20.70.10.30.30.20.20.30.2
Research translated into valueProsperity outcome8.23.7162.40.31.10.00.00.0
Rupture in trade and supplyFailure outcome0.11.40.21.30.90.90.70.81.2
Higher-value international businessProsperity outcome1.92.15.21.90.10.20.00.00.0
Sophisticated export strengthProsperity outcome7.02.57.42.30.10.20.00.00.0

↘ failure outcome · ↗ prosperity outcome. China is a region of one nation, so its column shows its own value.

How the reverse stress test reads

RouteA condition that produces the outcome: one scenario or two together, each at Major, Severe or Extreme, with the nation’s current plans holding or failing. Each nation has its own routes, because exposure and buffers differ.
LikelihoodThe chance over 10 years that at least one route occurs. A nation's likelihood for an outcome combines its routes, counting one route for each lead scenario so that routes sharing a scenario are not counted twice. It is an estimate, not an exact probability.
HeadroomHow many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be to produce the outcome on its own, with plans holding. Below 1, the standard case is already enough.
LeverFor failure, the weakest of the buffers against the scenario that does most of the work. For prosperity, the weakest capability that scenario requires. It is where a change would move the result most.
ThresholdsA failure outcome is met when the basket falls a full band, which is three points. A prosperity outcome is met when the basket rises half a band, 1.5 points: in this model gains from a scenario are smaller and slower than losses, so the bar is set lower and the difference is stated.
SeverityStandard Severe is the published case. Major is taken as 0.6 of its load and Extreme as 1.6. These multipliers are GINC assumptions. The published likelihood is the chance of an event at Standard Severe or worse. An event at Major or worse is taken as 2.5 times as likely and one at Extreme as one fifth as likely. These ratios are GINC assumptions.
PlansA route may need current plans to fail, which sets absorption to zero. Plans are more likely to fail where buffers are weak: given the event, the chance is one half times the share of the scale the nation's buffers fall short by. A nation with buffers at 16 of 20 sees its plans fail one time in ten; one at 8 of 20, three times in ten.
Two scenariosTwo unrelated scenarios in the same ten years compound only if they fall close together. The chance that they do is taken as 0.3, which is roughly a two-year window in ten. Where one scenario is recorded as triggering the other, the second is assumed to follow the first at Major or worse one time in four, and at Severe or Extreme in proportion to their exceedance ratios.
UpsideAn upside scenario lifts the capabilities it loads, by the same points as a downside scenario lowers them: a group the scenario singles out takes its domain's load in full, and other groups in a loaded domain one level lower. The lift is scaled by the nation's capture rate from the capture test. This mirrors the load test; it is the least tested part of the method.
LimitsThe search can only find routes made of scenarios in the Library. A failure whose cause has not been written will not appear, so an outcome with no route is not an outcome that cannot happen.

Citation

Cite as

GINC (2027). GINC Outcomes v1.0.0: 50 outcomes across nine capability domains. scenarios.ginc.org/outcomes

Content and data are published under CC BY 4.0.