Round 4 · simulation 1 · cmaes-dev.dev-est-mcts-index

Round 2030

Round 4 of 4 in simulation 1 of Estonia, tree search, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.091 to 11.77.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.77 (+0.091)
In: 11.68
Rank by index
30
In: 32
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
243
In: 182
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology7.337.79+0.4636
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.87+0.0055
National Security7.547.55+0.0096
Human Capital14.5614.560.0003
Information & Influence10.7010.90+0.2036
Governance & Integrity15.4615.46+0.0013
Financial Strength13.1113.110.0009
Production & Innovation12.9413.04+0.1095
Trade & Investment12.6012.63+0.0266

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 397, plus 182 carried in. Maintenance 276. Spent 60 on actions (buy 60). 243 carried over.

  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 1.10 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance by 1 per cent
  • BuySpace Technologies12 credits for 0.83 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 4 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance12 credits for 1.18 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Advanced Materials & Manufacturing by 0 per cent
  • BuyAdvanced Materials & Manufacturing12 credits for 1.15 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Economic Output & Productivity by 0 per cent
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity12 credits for 0.73 levelsmcts_greedyahead of Sensing, Timing & Navigation by 1 per cent
The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.47+1.470.000.000.00
Space Technologies+1.31+1.310.000.000.00
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.19+1.180.000.00+0.01
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing+1.15+1.150.000.000.00
Economic Output & Productivity+0.73+0.730.000.000.00
Artificial Intelligence+0.460.000.000.00+0.46