Loop

Research notes

What each cycle taught that is not a defect: insights about the model and what it implies under its current, structural parameters, kept apart from the fix list. Every note names the query it came from, in square brackets. Notes from before the vocabulary of 20 October 2026 keep the words they were written in.

Cycle 3

cycle-003, 2026-10-20, parameters 0.1.1.

  • Backcast: across 48 calibration nations, the correlation between observed and simulated change in the index from 1996 to 2026 is -0.09; the observed changes range from -5.6 to +6.5 points, the simulated from -2.8 to +0.7 [backcast_comparison].
  • Backcast: closest to history SAU (error 0.02), SGP (error 0.04), LKA (error 0.08), CZE (error 0.09); furthest CHN (observed +6.5, simulated -2.2), IND (observed +3.7, simulated -1.6), TUR (observed +1.3, simulated -2.6), VEN (observed -5.6, simulated -1.8) [backcast_comparison].
  • Backcast: the five fastest risers in history (CHN, IND, KOR, ARE, VNM) gained +3.5 index points on average; the model gives them -0.8. It has no mechanism for catch-up growth: income is calibrated to the cost of the starting position, so a nation that starts low stays poor in credits [backcast_comparison].
  • Across the batch, the graph's busiest edges are Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (-0.28 points a run); Transport Infrastructure to Trade Facilitation & Logistics (+0.21 points a run); Energy Infrastructure to Advanced Manufacturing (+0.16 points a run) [top_edges].

The cycle

Cycle 2

cycle-002, 2026-10-20, parameters 0.1.0.

  • Backcast: across 48 calibration nations, the correlation between observed and simulated change in the index from 1996 to 2026 is -0.10; the observed changes range from -5.6 to +6.5 points, the simulated from -6.0 to +0.9 [backcast_comparison].
  • Backcast: closest to history IRL (error 0.02), SAU (error 0.04), BRA (error 0.09), QAT (error 0.11); furthest CHN (observed +6.5, simulated -3.6), IND (observed +3.7, simulated -3.0), GEO (observed +1.1, simulated -3.9), TUR (observed +1.3, simulated -3.6) [backcast_comparison].
  • Backcast: the five fastest risers in history (CHN, IND, KOR, ARE, VNM) gained +3.5 index points on average; the model gives them -1.4. It has no mechanism for catch-up growth: income is calibrated to the cost of the starting position, so a nation that starts low stays poor in credits [backcast_comparison].
  • Across the batch, the graph's busiest edges are Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (-0.35 points a run); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (-0.26 points a run); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (-0.26 points a run) [top_edges].

The cycle

Cycle 1

cycle-001, 2026-10-20, parameters 0.1.0.

  • Policy ranking by median index at 20 years is not the same for every nation: BRA: greedy_marginal > mirror_peer > random > hold; EST: greedy_marginal > mirror_peer > random > hold; GBR: greedy_marginal > random > mirror_peer > hold; KEN: greedy_marginal > mirror_peer > random > hold; KOR: greedy_marginal > mirror_peer > random > hold [baseline_comparison].
  • What greedy is worth over holding, in median index points at 20 years: KEN +0.98, GBR +2.21, KOR +2.27, EST +2.36, BRA +2.38. Low-rated nations gain least, because income is calibrated to the cost of their position [objective_distributions].
  • Removing the shock library raises the median index by 0.205 to 1.509 points at 20 years across E3 experiments: the cost of the scenario library's risks, as the model prices them [probe_attribution].
  • Greedy by horizon (median index): KEN: 10y 7.25, 20y 7.38, 30y 7.52; KOR: 10y 17.41, 20y 17.98, 30y 18.08. The 10-year greedy stops investing in slow builds near its horizon, so horizons recommend different strategies [objective_distributions].
  • Across the batch, the graph's busiest edges are Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Artificial Intelligence (+0.51 points a run); Semiconductors & Advanced Computing to Economic Leverage & Dependence (+0.19 points a run); Economic Output & Productivity to Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance (+0.18 points a run) [top_edges].

The cycle