Round 13 · simulation 95 · cycle-001.e3-bra-hold

Round 2039

Round 13 of 20 in simulation 95 of Brazil, hold, 20 years: 0 actions, Breadbasket failure, and the index −0.192 to 11.28.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2039 (the end of 2038) and as it left it.

Capability index: 11.28 (−0.192); In: 11.47
Rank by index: 34; In: 34
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 1,052; In: 952

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	8.80	8.69	−0.114	6
Strategic Infrastructure	13.65	13.41	−0.249	3
National Security	9.41	9.31	−0.100	5
Human Capital	11.78	11.62	−0.163	7
Information & Influence	11.71	11.47	−0.235	5 → 6
Governance & Integrity	11.95	11.82	−0.131	9
Financial Strength	12.59	12.32	−0.266	10
Production & Innovation	11.52	11.32	−0.199	8
Trade & Investment	11.79	11.52	−0.270	8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2039: the credits, the hold method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 368, plus 952 carried in. Maintenance 268. Nothing spent on actions. 1,052 carried over.

Shock: Breadbasket failure S06. −13.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 5 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2039, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Events	Graph
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	−0.47	−0.46	−0.01
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−0.41	−0.40	−0.01
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	−0.39	−0.39	0.00
Monetary & Currency Capability	−0.39	−0.39	0.00
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	−0.38	−0.37	−0.02
Energy Infrastructure	−0.37	−0.36	−0.01