Simulation 23
United Kingdom, hold, 20 years, seed 23: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.45 at the 2026 position, 17.00 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 23
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 9 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 17.00 (+0.55)
- From 16.45
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 4
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | 16.45 0.000 | |
| 2028 | No actions | 16.45 0.000 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 16.45 0.000 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 16.45 0.000 | |
| 2031 | No actions | Market access opening | 16.56 +0.105 |
| 2032 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 16.48 −0.084 |
| 2033 | No actions | 16.58 +0.108 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 16.59 +0.002 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 16.59 +0.003 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 16.59 +0.003 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 16.59 +0.002 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 16.60 +0.004 | |
| 2039 | No actions | 16.60 +0.003 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 16.60 +0.003 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 16.61 +0.003 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 16.61 +0.002 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 16.61 +0.001 | |
| 2044 | No actions | Automated discovery step | 16.74 +0.128 |
| 2045 | No actions | 16.87 +0.130 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 17.00 +0.133 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.866 | +61.0 | +1.85 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.418 | +29.4 | +0.68 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.329 | +23.2 | +0.50 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.296 | +20.8 | +0.20 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 17.67 | 19.05 | +1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.38 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 18.33 | 19.55 | +1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.14 | +0.08 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.00 | 16.17 | +1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.13 | +0.04 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 17.50 | 18.59 | +1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +1.00 | +0.09 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 18.05 | +1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.96 | +0.09 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.25 | 18.24 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.96 | +0.03 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 17.99 | +0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.96 | +0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.47 | +0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.96 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.90 | +0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.86 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.00 | 17.89 | +0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.85 | +0.04 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 17.33 | 18.21 | +0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.82 | +0.06 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.60 | 18.47 | +0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.82 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.57 | 17.42 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.82 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 16.85 | +0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.82 | +0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.84 | +0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.81 | +0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.83 | +0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.08 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 16.82 | +0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.75 | 16.56 | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 17.81 | +0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.05 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 17.30 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.04 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.33 | 17.11 | +0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.67 | 15.44 | +0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.76 | +0.01 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 16.69 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.08 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 15.69 | +0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.67 | 16.35 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.09 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 17.00 | 17.68 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.06 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.00 | 16.68 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.09 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.67 | 15.34 | +0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 16.16 | +0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.05 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.25 | 15.90 | +0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 17.64 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 16.25 | 16.89 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.00 | 16.64 | +0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.03 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 16.76 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.60 | +0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 16.96 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 15.96 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.59 | +0.05 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.67 | 17.30 | +0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.62 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.60 | 16.17 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.07 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.09 | 17.65 | +0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.80 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.07 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.40 | 16.95 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.20 | 15.74 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.25 | 18.79 | +0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.50 | +0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.03 | +0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.75 | 17.27 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.08 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.75 | +0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.49 | +0.02 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 16.49 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.47 | +0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 17.25 | 17.74 | +0.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.12 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.60 | 16.07 | +0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.20 | 17.66 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +0.02 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.00 | 14.45 | +0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 17.75 | 18.19 | +0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 16.40 | 16.82 | +0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 18.08 | +0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.04 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.40 | 17.79 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 18.06 | +0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.38 | +0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 16.91 | +0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 18.40 | 18.58 | +0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.00 | 17.14 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.04 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 17.64 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.05 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 14.00 | 14.12 | +0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 14.67 | 14.78 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.02 |
| Air Power | National Security | 17.00 | 17.10 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 17.50 | 17.60 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 14.67 | 14.77 | +0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 16.67 | 16.76 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | −0.01 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 13.59 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.56 | +0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.10 | −0.04 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 17.33 | 17.16 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.83 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 18.00 | 17.81 | −0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.00 | 16.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 18.00 | 17.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
Seed 23 of experiment cycle-001.e3-gbr-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.