Round 2 · simulation 46 · cycle-001.e3-ken-hold

Round 2028

Round 2 of 20 in simulation 46 of Kenya, hold, 20 years: 0 actions, Regional war spillover, and the index −0.675 to 6.50.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2028 (the end of 2027) and as it left it.

Capability index: 6.50 (−0.675); In: 7.18
Rank by index: 90; In: 79
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 65; In: 31

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	2.90	2.47	−0.432	12
Strategic Infrastructure	7.88	6.99	−0.886	7 → 8
National Security	4.60	3.63	−0.974	9 → 10
Human Capital	7.68	7.43	−0.247	12
Information & Influence	8.21	7.84	−0.367	9
Governance & Integrity	8.89	8.41	−0.485	14 → 15
Financial Strength	8.57	7.69	−0.875	17 → 18
Production & Innovation	7.57	6.85	−0.717	14 → 15
Trade & Investment	8.30	7.20	−1.098	12 → 13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2028: the credits, the hold method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143, plus 31 carried in. Maintenance 110. Nothing spent on actions. 65 carried over.

Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −50.0 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; National Security Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 18; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 15; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.

The groups that moved most in 2028, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Events
Economic Leverage & Dependence	−1.74	−1.74
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	−1.68	−1.68
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	−1.68	−1.68
Maritime Power	−1.66	−1.66
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	−1.59	−1.59
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−1.50	−1.50