Simulation 1
Israel, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 15.14 at the 1996 position, 16.01 in 2026; 146 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 14 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 16.01 (+0.87)
- From 15.14
- Rank by index
- 6
- From 11
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 15.16 +0.018 | |
| 1998 |
| 15.20 +0.035 | |
| 1999 |
| 15.25 +0.051 | |
| 2000 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.19 −0.060 |
| 2001 |
| 15.24 +0.050 | |
| 2002 |
| 15.28 +0.043 | |
| 2003 |
| 15.32 +0.036 | |
| 2004 |
| 15.35 +0.033 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.37 +0.021 | |
| 2006 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.18 −0.192 |
| 2007 |
| 15.27 +0.089 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.28 +0.006 |
| 2009 |
| 15.33 +0.052 | |
| 2010 |
| 15.41 +0.086 | |
| 2011 |
| 15.54 +0.123 | |
| 2012 |
| 15.67 +0.131 | |
| 2013 |
| 15.78 +0.111 | |
| 2014 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.73 −0.049 |
| 2015 |
| 15.79 +0.064 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.86 +0.067 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.95 +0.092 | |
| 2018 |
| 16.03 +0.080 | |
| 2019 |
| 16.10 +0.065 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicMarket access opening | 15.96 −0.141 |
| 2021 |
| 16.07 +0.117 | |
| 2022 |
| 16.18 +0.111 | |
| 2023 |
| Regional war spillover | 15.99 −0.195 |
| 2024 |
| 16.01 +0.022 | |
| 2025 |
| 16.01 +0.001 | |
| 2026 |
| 16.01 0.000 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.405 | −182.6 | −6.20 |
| No shocks | +0.846 | +57.4 | +1.80 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.016 | −1.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.004 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.004 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.227 | +15.2 | +0.80 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.175 | +12.0 | +0.30 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.232 | +16.6 | +0.80 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.94 | 19.45 | +11.51 | +13.68 | 0.00 | −1.21 | +0.28 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.19 | 19.36 | +11.17 | +14.10 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.07 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.01 | 19.36 | +8.35 | +11.31 | 0.00 | −1.38 | +0.57 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.44 | 19.94 | +7.50 | +8.14 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 16.25 | +7.00 | +7.44 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.19 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.76 | 20.00 | +5.24 | +6.32 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.04 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 19.87 | +5.13 | +8.34 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 14.65 | 19.55 | +4.90 | +4.27 | 0.00 | −0.61 | +1.23 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.99 | 18.89 | +4.90 | +7.49 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.15 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.14 | 19.65 | +4.51 | +7.39 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.61 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 15.07 | 19.45 | +4.38 | +7.86 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.13 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.78 | 19.79 | +4.01 | +8.80 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.05 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.16 | 20.00 | +3.84 | +5.89 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.51 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.29 | 20.00 | +3.71 | +4.52 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.29 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.31 | 20.00 | +3.69 | +5.32 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.04 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 16.53 | 19.67 | +3.14 | +4.28 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.13 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 16.52 | 19.48 | +2.96 | +6.10 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 17.07 | 19.85 | +2.78 | +3.81 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.09 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 20.00 | +2.59 | +5.79 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 16.81 | 18.52 | +1.71 | +2.79 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.16 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 14.78 | 16.10 | +1.32 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.60 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.12 | 15.26 | +1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +1.89 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.12 | 19.14 | +1.02 | +1.68 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.29 |
| Land Power | National Security | 19.48 | 19.72 | +0.24 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.21 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 19.13 | 19.36 | +0.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +1.14 |
| Air Power | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 20.00 | 20.00 | 0.00 | +4.19 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 20.00 | 19.99 | −0.01 | +2.20 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.57 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.63 | 14.58 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | +1.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.48 | 16.42 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.25 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 15.37 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.68 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.19 | 17.13 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.65 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 17.14 | 17.06 | −0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.30 | +0.23 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 15.48 | 15.38 | −0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.41 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.76 | 16.63 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.18 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.94 | 14.78 | −0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.71 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 15.75 | 15.57 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.32 | +0.13 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.43 | 14.15 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 12.34 | 11.97 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.34 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.14 | 13.76 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.33 | −0.05 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.55 | 14.13 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.11 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 20.00 | 19.55 | −0.45 | +2.82 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.44 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.92 | 15.46 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.44 | −0.02 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 13.09 | 12.62 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.25 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.79 | 14.29 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.04 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 15.00 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.05 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 13.73 | 13.18 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 17.84 | 17.21 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.22 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.75 | 15.09 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.01 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 18.07 | 17.40 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | 0.00 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 14.84 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | +0.21 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.64 | 14.95 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.16 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 11.97 | 11.27 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.56 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.90 | 10.18 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.48 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.05 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 12.15 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 17.27 | 16.50 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.12 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 14.39 | 13.53 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | +0.15 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 18.34 | 17.42 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.08 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 16.43 | 15.49 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | +0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.58 | 11.60 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.29 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.53 | 16.37 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.23 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 14.66 | 13.48 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.41 | 13.19 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.15 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 15.23 | 13.96 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | +0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 15.20 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.96 | 13.57 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 12.50 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | +0.19 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 17.45 | 15.98 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | +0.10 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.19 | 13.71 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 14.04 | 12.40 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.03 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.60 | 10.90 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | +0.53 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 11.32 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | −0.11 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-isr. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.