Simulation 24
Japan, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 24: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 16.49 at the 1996 position, 17.07 in 2026; 177 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 24
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 26 (median simulation), 10 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 17.07 (+0.59)
- From 16.49
- Rank by index
- 2
- From 3
- Domains at Tier 1
- 8
- From 7
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 16.40 −0.084 |
| 1998 |
| 16.52 +0.120 | |
| 1999 |
| 16.69 +0.169 | |
| 2000 |
| 16.80 +0.111 | |
| 2001 |
| 16.91 +0.108 | |
| 2002 |
| 17.03 +0.115 | |
| 2003 |
| 17.10 +0.073 | |
| 2004 |
| 17.14 +0.038 | |
| 2005 |
| 17.15 +0.015 | |
| 2006 |
| 17.17 +0.018 | |
| 2007 |
| 17.20 +0.025 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 17.17 −0.029 |
| 2009 |
| 17.19 +0.023 | |
| 2010 |
| 17.20 +0.011 | |
| 2011 |
| Core disaster | 16.93 −0.274 |
| 2012 | No actions | 16.92 −0.004 | |
| 2013 |
| 17.01 +0.089 | |
| 2014 |
| 17.16 +0.148 | |
| 2015 |
| 17.21 +0.047 | |
| 2016 |
| 17.20 −0.002 | |
| 2017 |
| 17.21 +0.002 | |
| 2018 |
| 17.21 +0.002 | |
| 2019 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 17.18 −0.028 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 16.93 −0.253 |
| 2021 |
| 16.95 +0.020 | |
| 2022 |
| 17.04 +0.094 | |
| 2023 |
| 17.06 +0.016 | |
| 2024 |
| 17.06 +0.007 | |
| 2025 |
| 17.07 +0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 17.07 +0.007 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.858 | −127.7 | −4.00 |
| No shocks | +0.512 | +35.2 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.169 | +11.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.185 | +13.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.076 | +5.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 19.99 | +5.63 | +14.30 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.12 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 19.37 | +5.44 | +10.98 | 0.00 | −1.17 | 0.00 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.53 | 19.96 | +5.43 | +18.09 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.15 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 15.08 | 20.00 | +4.92 | +11.40 | 0.00 | −1.26 | +0.28 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 16.18 | 19.99 | +3.81 | +12.35 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 15.40 | 19.16 | +3.76 | +8.37 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.52 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 16.13 | 19.77 | +3.64 | +9.16 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.04 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.93 | 20.00 | +3.07 | +15.20 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.17 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 15.25 | +2.98 | +3.12 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.30 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.90 | 19.70 | +2.80 | +9.90 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.11 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 9.87 | 12.55 | +2.68 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −0.46 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.39 | 17.90 | +2.51 | +3.04 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.80 | 14.17 | +2.37 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −0.44 | +0.08 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 17.67 | 20.00 | +2.33 | +10.07 | 0.00 | −1.33 | +0.42 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.36 | 19.53 | +2.17 | +7.96 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.06 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 17.92 | 20.00 | +2.08 | +14.29 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.21 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 16.41 | +1.80 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.10 | 18.90 | +1.80 | +6.55 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.96 | 19.68 | +1.72 | +5.44 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.31 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 15.86 | 17.51 | +1.65 | +2.03 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 18.48 | 20.00 | +1.52 | +8.25 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.13 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 18.68 | 20.00 | +1.32 | +5.38 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.16 | 19.33 | +1.17 | +8.58 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.42 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 18.43 | 19.58 | +1.15 | +5.98 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.41 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 18.36 | +0.91 | +1.39 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.57 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 19.42 | 20.00 | +0.58 | +4.42 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.50 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 17.41 | 17.86 | +0.45 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.33 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.28 | 11.62 | +0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.76 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.97 | 18.26 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +1.40 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 18.28 | 18.41 | +0.13 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.05 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.70 | 16.61 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | +0.56 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.32 | 17.14 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.61 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 17.80 | 17.58 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.29 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.76 | 18.47 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | +0.68 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 17.08 | 16.75 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | +0.21 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 20.00 | 19.65 | −0.35 | +4.61 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.60 |
| Land Power | National Security | 11.47 | 11.08 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.03 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 18.53 | 18.12 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.10 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 12.57 | 12.15 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.58 | −0.42 | +4.19 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.12 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.91 | 16.46 | −0.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | +0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.93 | 0.47 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 16.06 | 15.59 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.09 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 11.76 | 11.29 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.02 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.52 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.77 | 17.25 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.20 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.72 | 16.17 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.03 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.05 | 15.49 | −0.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.03 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.15 | 14.57 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.03 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.53 | 14.95 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.04 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.71 | 19.13 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.68 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.73 | 17.13 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.06 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 18.48 | 17.86 | −0.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.26 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 18.20 | 17.56 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.54 | −0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.63 | 15.93 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.66 | 13.95 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 20.00 | 19.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.41 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.64 | 15.89 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.24 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.29 | 11.51 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.01 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 15.61 | 14.80 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.29 | 11.46 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 20.00 | 19.16 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 16.31 | 15.39 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.07 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.86 | 14.93 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.09 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 19.07 | 17.91 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.16 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 18.14 | 16.93 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.20 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 17.31 | 16.02 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | +0.01 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 19.80 | 18.38 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 18.93 | 17.38 | −1.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.11 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 18.92 | 17.36 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.24 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.09 | 12.48 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.02 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 18.31 | 16.36 | −1.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | 0.00 |
Seed 24 of experiment cycle-002.e4-jpn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.