Simulation 15
South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 15: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 13.13 at the 1996 position, 12.80 in 2026; 76 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 15
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 30 (median simulation), 7 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 12.80 (−0.32)
- From 13.13
- Rank by index
- 23
- From 21
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.86 −0.265 |
| 1998 |
| 12.93 +0.072 | |
| 1999 |
| 13.03 +0.093 | |
| 2000 |
| 13.12 +0.091 | |
| 2001 |
| 13.20 +0.085 | |
| 2002 |
| 13.28 +0.077 | |
| 2003 |
| 13.36 +0.083 | |
| 2004 |
| 13.44 +0.079 | |
| 2005 |
| 13.50 +0.061 | |
| 2006 |
| 13.55 +0.046 | |
| 2007 |
| 13.58 +0.029 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 13.44 −0.139 |
| 2009 |
| 13.45 +0.012 | |
| 2010 |
| 13.45 +0.004 | |
| 2011 |
| 13.46 +0.002 | |
| 2012 |
| 13.46 0.000 | |
| 2013 |
| 13.46 0.000 | |
| 2014 |
| 13.46 +0.001 | |
| 2015 |
| 13.46 +0.001 | |
| 2016 |
| 13.46 +0.001 | |
| 2017 |
| 13.46 0.000 | |
| 2018 |
| 13.46 0.000 | |
| 2019 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 13.39 −0.069 |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 12.91 −0.481 |
| 2021 | No actions | 12.81 −0.093 | |
| 2022 |
| 12.80 −0.010 | |
| 2023 |
| 12.80 −0.005 | |
| 2024 |
| 12.80 0.000 | |
| 2025 |
| 12.80 −0.001 | |
| 2026 |
| 12.80 +0.001 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.958 | −64.5 | −2.00 |
| No shocks | +1.165 | +78.3 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.009 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.026 | +2.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.028 | +2.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.2 | −1.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.370 | +25.6 | +0.10 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.381 | +24.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.261 | +17.8 | +1.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 15.65 | +5.98 | +6.93 | −0.08 | −0.81 | −0.05 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.54 | 18.89 | +5.35 | +6.17 | −0.16 | −0.74 | +0.08 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 13.45 | +4.03 | +5.61 | −0.04 | −1.75 | +0.21 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.61 | 19.49 | +3.88 | +4.63 | −0.12 | −0.51 | −0.13 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.60 | 14.44 | +3.84 | +5.60 | −0.05 | −1.73 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 17.74 | +3.61 | +5.41 | −0.09 | −1.51 | −0.21 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.20 | 18.90 | +2.70 | +4.09 | −0.10 | −1.25 | −0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.85 | 18.47 | +2.62 | +3.75 | −0.03 | −0.97 | −0.13 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 14.91 | 17.33 | +2.42 | +3.75 | −0.09 | −1.08 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.32 | 17.20 | +1.88 | +3.14 | −0.13 | −1.07 | −0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.79 | 19.40 | +1.61 | +2.81 | −0.16 | −0.98 | −0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.32 | 12.44 | +1.12 | +2.16 | −0.11 | −0.87 | −0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.31 | 14.29 | −0.02 | +0.73 | −0.06 | −0.56 | −0.13 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 12.24 | −0.03 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.33 | +0.39 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.79 | 11.71 | −0.08 | +0.71 | −0.10 | −0.91 | +0.23 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.83 | 13.62 | −0.21 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.54 | +0.36 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 14.33 | −0.28 | +0.28 | −0.10 | −0.31 | −0.15 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 1.10 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | 0.00 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 14.04 | 13.58 | −0.46 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.32 | −0.04 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 13.03 | −0.47 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.54 | +0.10 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.34 | −0.48 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.33 | −0.07 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 13.85 | 13.30 | −0.55 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.32 | −0.13 |
| Land Power | National Security | 17.34 | 16.78 | −0.56 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.30 | −0.14 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 10.98 | −0.63 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 13.78 | −0.63 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.57 | −0.01 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.36 | 14.72 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.52 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 7.51 | −0.66 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.35 | −0.25 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.45 | 16.77 | −0.68 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.55 | −0.06 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.10 | 15.42 | −0.68 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.51 | −0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.25 | 11.56 | −0.69 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.33 | −0.28 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.85 | 13.15 | −0.70 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.83 | +0.16 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.95 | 13.24 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.63 | −0.06 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 10.13 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.02 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.29 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.53 | −0.14 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.32 | 11.60 | −0.72 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.65 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.91 | 12.18 | −0.73 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.76 | +0.05 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.34 | 11.60 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.58 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.33 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.69 | −0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.97 | 13.21 | −0.76 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.85 | +0.15 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 13.98 | −0.76 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.62 | −0.12 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.39 | 15.59 | −0.80 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.31 | −0.38 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 15.18 | −0.80 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.77 | 0.00 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 14.54 | −0.81 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.56 | −0.20 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.45 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.59 | −0.24 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.83 | 10.93 | −0.90 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.59 | −0.27 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.70 | 13.77 | −0.93 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.19 | +0.34 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 14.08 | 13.12 | −0.96 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.79 | −0.14 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.49 | −1.03 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.96 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.96 | 11.92 | −1.04 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.92 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 5.91 | −1.12 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.01 | −0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 4.74 | −1.12 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.03 | −0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 11.12 | −1.13 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.47 | +0.40 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 13.71 | −1.17 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −0.92 | −0.18 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 15.16 | 13.99 | −1.17 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.18 | +0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.32 | 14.14 | −1.18 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.74 | −0.38 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.10 | 7.82 | −1.28 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.99 | −0.25 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 9.70 | −1.28 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.95 | −0.24 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.56 | 13.24 | −1.32 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.98 | −0.30 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.50 | −1.41 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.17 | −0.17 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.97 | −1.45 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.36 | −0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 9.31 | −1.48 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.31 | −0.13 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 10.77 | −1.49 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.23 | −0.20 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 14.64 | 13.03 | −1.61 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.69 | +0.15 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.51 | 8.75 | −1.76 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −1.60 | −0.08 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 14.70 | −1.80 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −1.65 | −0.07 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.90 | 12.03 | −1.87 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.79 | −0.02 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.81 | 12.90 | −1.91 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.83 | −0.03 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 14.86 | −1.94 | 0.00 | −0.08 | −1.83 | −0.02 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 10.18 | −1.97 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.75 | −0.17 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.60 | 11.51 | −2.09 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.10 | +0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 9.55 | −2.37 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −2.21 | −0.11 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 11.54 | −2.41 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −2.18 | −0.17 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 11.84 | −2.52 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.24 | −0.24 |
Seed 15 of experiment cycle-002.e4-kor. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.