Simulation 20
Lithuania, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 20: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.78 at the 1996 position, 7.47 in 2026; 106 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 20
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 16 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 9 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 7.47 (−1.31)
- From 8.78
- Rank by index
- 74
- From 61
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 8.81 +0.030 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.66 −0.152 |
| 1999 |
| 8.71 +0.050 | |
| 2000 |
| 8.75 +0.037 | |
| 2001 |
| 8.79 +0.036 | |
| 2002 |
| 8.82 +0.033 | |
| 2003 |
| 8.85 +0.030 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 8.96 +0.114 |
| 2005 |
| 9.07 +0.109 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.17 +0.105 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.20 +0.023 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 8.85 −0.348 |
| 2009 |
| 8.87 +0.018 | |
| 2010 |
| 8.88 +0.015 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.90 +0.018 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.91 +0.012 | |
| 2013 |
| 8.92 +0.010 | |
| 2014 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 8.82 −0.108 |
| 2015 | No actions | 8.69 −0.126 | |
| 2016 | No actions | 8.56 −0.132 | |
| 2017 |
| 8.55 −0.006 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.55 −0.004 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.55 +0.001 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.99 −0.555 |
| 2021 |
| 7.99 −0.005 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 7.54 −0.452 |
| 2023 |
| 7.52 −0.016 | |
| 2024 |
| 7.50 −0.020 | |
| 2025 |
| 7.48 −0.017 | |
| 2026 |
| 7.47 −0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.664 | −48.5 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.394 | +167.0 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | +0.005 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.005 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.006 | +0.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.015 | +1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.650 | +46.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.486 | +35.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.454 | +31.7 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.74 | 15.19 | +5.45 | +8.33 | −0.05 | −2.60 | −0.22 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.16 | 12.20 | +3.04 | +3.97 | −0.02 | −0.96 | +0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 12.71 | +2.85 | +3.69 | −0.01 | −0.84 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.75 | 12.06 | +2.31 | +3.96 | −0.04 | −1.49 | −0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.15 | 12.31 | +2.16 | +3.15 | −0.01 | −0.91 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 13.19 | +1.21 | +2.78 | −0.01 | −1.52 | −0.03 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.20 | 12.30 | +1.10 | +2.01 | −0.04 | −0.84 | −0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.78 | 5.15 | +0.37 | +2.06 | −0.02 | −1.66 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.13 | 10.38 | +0.25 | +1.65 | −0.03 | −0.99 | −0.39 |
| Air Power | National Security | 5.77 | 5.88 | +0.11 | +1.33 | −0.03 | −1.09 | −0.11 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.03 | 0.00 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.04 |
| Land Power | National Security | 8.80 | 8.71 | −0.09 | +1.09 | −0.04 | −1.03 | −0.10 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 10.93 | −0.16 | +0.86 | −0.03 | −0.89 | −0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 9.32 | 9.06 | −0.26 | +1.23 | −0.04 | −1.03 | −0.43 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 7.66 | 7.36 | −0.30 | +0.79 | −0.03 | −1.05 | −0.01 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 9.93 | −0.40 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.06 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.17 | 6.64 | −0.53 | +1.20 | −0.03 | −1.59 | −0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.73 | 10.19 | −0.54 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.62 | +0.09 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.45 | 9.84 | −0.61 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.85 | +0.25 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 10.20 | 9.55 | −0.65 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.86 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.50 | 10.76 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.61 | −0.12 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 9.19 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.63 | −0.10 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 10.07 | 9.30 | −0.77 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.63 | −0.13 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.26 | 11.46 | −0.80 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.59 | −0.19 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.19 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.86 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.61 | 9.64 | −0.97 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.85 | −0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.26 | 9.24 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.94 | −0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.56 | 9.50 | −1.06 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.94 | −0.10 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.04 | 10.96 | −1.08 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.98 | −0.10 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.53 | 8.43 | −1.10 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.03 | −0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.94 | 5.75 | −1.19 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.05 | −0.10 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 4.21 | −1.25 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.01 | −0.23 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.34 | 2.94 | −1.40 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.10 | −0.28 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.59 | −1.41 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.39 | 0.00 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 9.29 | −1.46 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.42 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 8.18 | −1.49 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.44 | −0.02 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.71 | 4.19 | −1.52 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.51 | +0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.39 | 8.84 | −1.55 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.26 | −0.28 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.82 | 5.24 | −1.58 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −1.45 | −0.13 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.78 | 9.20 | −1.58 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.20 | −0.36 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 2.73 | −1.61 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.55 | −0.04 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.30 | 1.67 | −1.63 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.57 | −0.04 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 4.93 | 3.23 | −1.70 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.63 | −0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.70 | 4.00 | −1.70 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.51 | −0.16 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.30 | 3.55 | −1.75 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.52 | −0.20 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 5.62 | 3.81 | −1.81 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.52 | −0.27 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 9.50 | 7.67 | −1.83 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.85 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.08 | 8.24 | −1.84 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.29 | −0.52 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.10 | 3.24 | −1.86 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.63 | −0.22 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.23 | 8.33 | −1.90 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.96 | +0.09 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.12 | 3.13 | −1.99 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.93 | −0.04 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.07 | 1.06 | −2.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.99 | 0.00 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 8.65 | 6.63 | −2.02 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.84 | −0.16 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.50 | 6.46 | −2.04 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.88 | −0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 4.59 | −2.12 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.49 | −0.59 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.98 | 7.86 | −2.12 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.84 | −0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.57 | 7.41 | −2.16 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.85 | −0.29 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 8.97 | 6.81 | −2.16 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −2.05 | −0.09 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.55 | 7.33 | −2.22 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −2.21 | +0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 7.64 | 5.16 | −2.48 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.18 | −0.28 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 4.02 | −2.56 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −2.49 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.86 | 7.20 | −2.66 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.88 | +0.23 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 9.90 | 7.15 | −2.75 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −2.71 | −0.02 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 8.60 | 5.81 | −2.79 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.62 | −0.15 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.07 | 6.10 | −2.97 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.91 | −0.04 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 8.89 | 5.81 | −3.08 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.89 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.40 | 7.31 | −3.09 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −3.20 | +0.13 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 7.78 | 4.68 | −3.10 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −2.78 | −0.31 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 6.26 | −3.16 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −2.90 | −0.25 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.16 | 7.93 | −3.23 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −3.16 | −0.22 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.47 | 6.01 | −3.46 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −3.16 | −0.28 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.08 | 4.41 | −3.67 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −3.35 | −0.31 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.69 | 6.22 | −4.47 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −3.92 | −0.54 |
Seed 20 of experiment cycle-002.e4-ltu. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.