Simulation 12
Thailand, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 12: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.39 at the 1996 position, 9.64 in 2026; 140 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 12
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (median simulation), 6 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.64 (−0.75)
- From 10.39
- Rank by index
- 49
- From 44
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.89 −0.503 |
| 1998 |
| 9.95 +0.057 | |
| 1999 |
| 10.00 +0.054 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.05 +0.054 | |
| 2001 |
| 10.10 +0.044 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.13 +0.035 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.18 +0.043 | |
| 2004 |
| Core disaster | 10.06 −0.112 |
| 2005 |
| 10.11 +0.043 | |
| 2006 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.97 −0.140 |
| 2007 |
| 10.01 +0.038 | |
| 2008 |
| 10.04 +0.038 | |
| 2009 |
| 10.08 +0.037 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.12 +0.038 | |
| 2011 |
| Core disaster | 9.91 −0.205 |
| 2012 |
| 9.95 +0.032 | |
| 2013 |
| 9.97 +0.028 | |
| 2014 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.80 −0.170 |
| 2015 |
| 9.85 +0.052 | |
| 2016 |
| 9.90 +0.042 | |
| 2017 |
| 9.93 +0.035 | |
| 2018 |
| 9.96 +0.032 | |
| 2019 |
| 9.99 +0.030 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.52 −0.478 |
| 2021 |
| 9.53 +0.017 | |
| 2022 |
| 9.55 +0.018 | |
| 2023 |
| 9.57 +0.022 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.60 +0.023 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.62 +0.022 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.64 +0.025 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Financial Strength | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Production & Innovation | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.519 | −112.3 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.863 | +126.7 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.014 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.013 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.102 | −7.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.014 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.540 | +37.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.684 | +46.3 | +0.40 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.272 | +19.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.50 | 15.86 | +9.36 | +10.60 | 0.00 | −1.24 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 12.07 | 18.34 | +6.27 | +8.56 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.31 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.11 | 15.34 | +5.23 | +6.27 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 17.90 | +4.88 | +5.94 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.12 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.43 | 10.92 | +4.49 | +5.68 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.35 | 17.20 | +2.85 | +6.32 | 0.00 | −3.11 | −0.36 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.02 | 15.40 | +2.38 | +3.54 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.07 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.85 | 10.00 | +2.15 | +3.98 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.09 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.93 | 13.75 | +1.82 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.11 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 12.76 | +1.67 | +3.69 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.40 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 14.16 | 15.64 | +1.48 | +4.35 | 0.00 | −3.03 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.61 | 15.01 | +1.40 | +3.33 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.34 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 15.43 | +1.16 | +2.61 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.31 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.15 | 13.02 | +0.87 | +3.22 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.37 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.59 | 10.05 | +0.46 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −3.15 | +0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.23 | 10.47 | +0.24 | +3.43 | 0.00 | −3.11 | −0.08 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.14 | 0.00 | −0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.02 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 12.24 | 11.78 | −0.46 | +2.12 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.24 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.22 | 11.62 | −0.60 | +2.98 | 0.00 | −3.52 | −0.06 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 7.53 | 6.89 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.48 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 8.09 | 7.16 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.25 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.74 | 10.69 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.20 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.40 | 11.29 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.05 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 10.26 | 9.09 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.09 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 9.16 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.08 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.53 | 11.35 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.15 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.36 | 10.17 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.12 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.24 | 9.05 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.51 | 8.31 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.09 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 7.46 | 6.26 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.12 | 8.90 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.14 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 6.71 | 5.48 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 7.97 | 6.73 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.12 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 5.02 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.14 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.11 | 2.80 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.06 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.66 | 7.35 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | −0.19 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.42 | 6.10 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.14 | 9.82 | −1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | +0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.44 | 2.09 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.09 |
| Air Power | National Security | 10.75 | 9.38 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.30 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 3.77 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.24 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 7.98 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.21 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 5.95 | 4.52 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.21 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.26 | 10.77 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.08 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.62 | 4.09 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.05 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.30 | 12.74 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.05 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.28 | 7.70 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.10 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.71 | 8.09 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.14 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 9.98 | 8.34 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.18 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.47 | 8.77 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.25 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 11.14 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.17 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 7.66 | 5.94 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.01 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.57 | 8.83 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.93 | 10.16 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.13 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.27 | 11.48 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.60 | −0.19 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.32 | 8.53 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.13 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 13.30 | 11.49 | −1.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | +0.51 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.03 | 10.20 | −1.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.07 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.09 | 9.25 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.13 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.06 | 10.17 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.62 | −0.27 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.79 | 9.86 | −1.93 | +3.20 | 0.00 | −4.61 | −0.52 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.16 | 8.20 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | +0.35 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.11 | 5.11 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.28 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.90 | 10.87 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.26 | +0.22 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 10.87 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | +0.09 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 9.51 | 7.26 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.28 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.44 | 10.06 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.49 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.81 | 6.26 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.17 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.17 | 10.61 | −2.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.31 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.56 | 6.69 | −2.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.74 | −0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.77 | 9.89 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.33 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.10 | 6.76 | −3.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.17 | −0.17 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.89 | 10.46 | −3.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.32 | −0.11 |
Seed 12 of experiment cycle-002.e4-tha. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.