Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-tur

Simulation 6

Türkiye, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 6: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.83 at the 1996 position, 7.27 in 2026; 183 actions over 30 rounds and 9 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 6

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 11 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 7.27 (−3.57); From 10.83
Rank by index: 76; From 36
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 9 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4	Legitimacy rupture	10.57 −0.261
1998	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 4 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 4		10.60 +0.031
1999	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3	Core disaster	10.16 −0.440
2000	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 7 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 7 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 7 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 7 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3		10.19 +0.027
2001	Partner Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6 Partner Monetary & Currency Capability 6 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3	Global funding seizure	9.95 −0.238
2002	Build Transport Infrastructure 3 Build Energy Infrastructure 3 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 3 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 3 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3 Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6		9.96 +0.014
2003	Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6		9.97 +0.009
2004	Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6		9.99 +0.013
2005	Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6		10.01 +0.021
2006	Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6		10.03 +0.023
2007	Partner Health System Capability 6 Partner Foundational Education 6 Partner Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6 Partner Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 6 Partner Financial Regulation & Integrity 6 Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6		10.06 +0.030
2008	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6	Global funding seizure	9.89 −0.175
2009	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6		9.90 +0.016
2010	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 14 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 14 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 14 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 14		9.92 +0.023
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 14 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 14 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 14 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 14	Regional war spillover	9.44 −0.482
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 6 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 6 Build Financial Infrastructure 6 Build Social Infrastructure 6 Build Energy Infrastructure 6 Build Air Power 14 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 14 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 14 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 14		9.48 +0.038
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Financial Infrastructure 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Air Power 13 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 13 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 13 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13		9.51 +0.032
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Financial Infrastructure 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Air Power 13 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 13 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 13 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 13 Build Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 13		9.55 +0.034
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 5 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Financial Infrastructure 5 Build Social Infrastructure 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Air Power 13 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2		9.57 +0.027
2016	Build Air Power 13 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 13 Build Robotics & Autonomous Systems 9	Legitimacy rupture	9.12 −0.454
2017	Build Air Power 13 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 12		9.13 +0.012
2018	Build Air Power 11 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 11		9.13 +0.003
2019	Build Air Power 11 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 10		9.13 −0.002
2020	Build Air Power 11 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 9	Severe pandemic	8.71 −0.416
2021	Build Air Power 11 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0		8.70 −0.013
2022	Build Air Power 10 Build Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0	Regional war spillover	8.27 −0.433
2023	Build Air Power 2	Core disaster	7.52 −0.748
2024	No actions		7.44 −0.083
2025	No actions		7.35 −0.091
2026	No actions		7.27 −0.082

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
Strategic Infrastructure	3	3	3	4	3	4	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5
National Security	3	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	5	4	4	4	5	4	4	5	5	5	5
Human Capital	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	10	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	13	13	13	13
Information & Influence	4	4	4	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	12	12	12	12	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	11	12	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14
Financial Strength	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	17	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	22	24	24	25	25
Production & Innovation	6	6	6	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	11	14	14	14	14
Trade & Investment	7	7	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	7	7	7	10	10	10	10

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.973	−76.3
No shocks	+4.646	+331.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.3
Without the 2nd largest decision	0.000	+0.0
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.001	−0.1
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.2
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.001	−0.1
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.916	+64.4
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.753	+55.0
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.927	+67.1

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	10.01	+3.43	+5.53	−0.30	−1.56	−0.24
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	8.57	+1.80	+3.97	−0.27	−1.58	−0.33
Air Power	National Security	14.06	15.20	+1.14	+4.25	−0.39	−2.66	−0.06
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	8.63	9.64	+1.01	+3.17	−0.31	−1.58	−0.28
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	12.43	+0.32	+3.78	−0.28	−2.91	−0.27
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.95	11.64	−0.31	+3.56	−0.17	−3.21	−0.49
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	9.35	−0.90	+1.98	−0.10	−2.50	−0.29
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.63	9.72	−0.91	+1.61	−0.06	−2.43	−0.02
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	9.14	7.58	−1.56	+1.74	−0.05	−3.06	−0.19
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.31	10.55	−1.76	+2.38	−0.16	−3.02	−0.96
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	8.06	6.05	−2.01	0.00	−0.20	−1.80	−0.01
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	2.67	−2.02	0.00	−0.09	−1.89	−0.04
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	2.06	0.00	−2.06	0.00	0.00	−3.53	−0.03
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	5.07	2.99	−2.08	0.00	−0.10	−1.88	−0.10
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	7.68	−2.17	0.00	−0.07	−2.16	+0.06
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	10.33	8.14	−2.19	0.00	−0.08	−2.14	+0.03
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	15.33	13.13	−2.20	+2.93	−0.27	−4.53	−0.33
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	6.13	3.93	−2.20	0.00	−0.13	−1.85	−0.22
Advanced Education	Human Capital	10.10	7.81	−2.29	0.00	−0.07	−2.15	−0.07
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.09	6.68	−2.41	0.00	−0.06	−2.18	−0.16
Health System Capability	Human Capital	10.39	7.92	−2.47	+2.03	−0.09	−3.69	−0.72
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	8.87	6.36	−2.51	0.00	−0.22	−1.77	−0.51
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	7.30	−2.51	+3.36	−0.11	−5.11	−0.66
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	10.86	8.32	−2.54	0.00	−0.08	−2.12	−0.33
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.29	6.75	−2.54	0.00	−0.07	−2.18	−0.29
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.98	9.40	−2.58	+2.61	−0.06	−4.77	−0.36
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	9.66	6.99	−2.67	0.00	−0.24	−2.20	−0.23
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.07	6.30	−2.77	0.00	−0.04	−2.45	−0.27
Population Health	Human Capital	9.53	6.73	−2.80	0.00	−0.04	−2.47	−0.28
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.19	9.22	−2.97	+3.00	−0.14	−5.05	−0.79
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.43	12.33	−3.10	+0.58	−0.18	−3.01	−0.49
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.96	7.86	−3.10	0.00	−0.05	−2.87	−0.18
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	12.29	9.15	−3.14	0.00	−0.19	−2.91	−0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	6.98	−3.17	0.00	−0.04	−2.92	−0.21
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	8.89	5.70	−3.19	0.00	−0.03	−2.99	−0.16
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	7.68	−3.29	+2.19	−0.11	−5.33	−0.04
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.30	8.00	−3.30	0.00	−0.17	−2.95	−0.19
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	13.06	9.68	−3.38	0.00	−0.26	−2.97	−0.15
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	12.15	8.72	−3.43	0.00	−0.13	−3.19	−0.10
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	2.93	−3.43	0.00	−0.10	−3.16	−0.17
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.41	6.87	−3.54	+2.65	−0.10	−4.91	−1.19
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	9.31	5.76	−3.55	0.00	−0.16	−3.16	−0.22
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.18	10.60	−3.58	0.00	−0.22	−2.84	−0.52
Land Power	National Security	16.27	12.58	−3.69	0.00	−0.34	−2.81	−0.54
Space Operations	National Security	6.37	2.68	−3.69	0.00	−0.07	−3.31	−0.31
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.34	12.58	−3.76	0.00	−0.26	−2.76	−0.74
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	12.09	8.06	−4.03	0.00	−0.17	−2.92	−0.95
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.37	6.16	−4.21	0.00	−0.12	−3.94	−0.15
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	12.18	7.79	−4.39	0.00	−0.16	−3.85	−0.38
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	9.87	5.47	−4.40	0.00	−0.15	−4.24	−0.01
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	12.26	7.85	−4.41	0.00	−0.16	−3.85	−0.41
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	5.36	−4.51	0.00	−0.11	−3.96	−0.45
Maritime Power	National Security	12.22	7.71	−4.51	0.00	−0.21	−4.08	−0.22
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	11.00	6.46	−4.54	0.00	−0.04	−3.90	−0.60
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	6.23	−4.57	+0.83	−0.10	−4.46	−0.84
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	12.82	8.14	−4.68	0.00	−0.23	−4.04	−0.43
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	13.47	8.73	−4.74	0.00	−0.17	−4.54	−0.02
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.13	4.34	−4.79	+2.21	−0.06	−6.58	−0.35
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.94	6.11	−4.83	0.00	−0.13	−4.38	−0.33
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	13.20	8.21	−4.99	0.00	−0.12	−4.09	−0.78
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	11.63	6.53	−5.10	0.00	−0.13	−4.45	−0.52
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	3.13	−5.29	0.00	−0.04	−4.78	−0.47
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	12.78	7.38	−5.40	0.00	−0.15	−4.58	−0.68
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.92	4.52	−5.40	0.00	−0.09	−4.99	−0.33
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.27	4.69	−5.58	0.00	−0.06	−5.26	−0.27
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	15.60	10.00	−5.60	0.00	−0.28	−3.78	−1.54
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	14.63	9.01	−5.62	0.00	−0.18	−5.08	−0.37
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	11.64	5.88	−5.76	0.00	−0.12	−4.65	−0.99
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	11.06	4.67	−6.39	0.00	−0.09	−5.94	−0.35
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	11.24	4.78	−6.46	0.00	−0.10	−5.88	−0.49
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	4.23	−6.75	0.00	−0.06	−6.67	−0.02
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	12.66	4.19	−8.47	0.00	−0.09	−7.95	−0.44
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	1.75	−8.57	+1.74	−0.03	−9.51	−0.78

Seed 6 of experiment cycle-002.e4-tur. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.