Median simulation · cycle-003.e4-col

Simulation 19

Colombia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 19: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.85 at the 1996 position, 8.99 in 2026; 86 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 19

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 17 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 8.99 (−0.86); From 9.85
Rank by index: 56; From 49
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 5 shocks; 1 upside event

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 16 Partner Land Power 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 16 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 16		9.88 +0.027
1998	Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 16 Partner Land Power 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 16 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 16		9.93 +0.054
1999	Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 16 Partner Land Power 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 16 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 13	Global funding seizureCore disaster	9.51 −0.419
2000	Partner Internal Security & Order 16 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 16 Partner Land Power 16 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 13		9.54 +0.033
2001	Partner Internal Security & Order 14 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Partner Land Power 14 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 12		9.56 +0.015
2002	Partner Internal Security & Order 14 Partner Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Partner Land Power 14 Partner Intelligence & Assessment 9		9.58 +0.016
2003	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Buy Land Power 14 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 6		9.60 +0.023
2004	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Buy Land Power 14 Buy Intelligence & Assessment 2		9.62 +0.020
2005	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Buy Land Power 13		9.63 +0.016
2006	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Buy Land Power 9		9.65 +0.014
2007	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 14 Buy Land Power 3		9.66 +0.012
2008	Buy Internal Security & Order 14 Buy Force Generation & Mobilisation 10	Global funding seizure	9.52 −0.138
2009	Buy Internal Security & Order 13		9.53 +0.003
2010	Buy Internal Security & Order 9	Core disaster	9.29 −0.232
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 12		9.29 −0.006
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 11	Market access opening	9.31 +0.024
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 13 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6		9.34 +0.028
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 14 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5		9.37 +0.033
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.38 +0.002
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.38 +0.006
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.39 +0.006
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 11		9.39 +0.006
2019	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Population Health 5		9.40 +0.006
2020	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Population Health 5	Severe pandemic	8.97 −0.425
2021	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2		8.98 +0.002
2022	Build National Resilience & Crisis Management 5 Build Population Health 5 Build Health System Capability 5 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2		8.97 0.000
2023	Build Energy Technologies 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 2		8.98 +0.003
2024	Build Energy Technologies 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 3		8.98 +0.003
2025	Build Energy Technologies 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 3		8.98 +0.003
2026	Build Energy Technologies 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Internal Security & Order 3		8.99 +0.006

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Strategic Infrastructure	5	5	5	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
National Security	5	5	5	4	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Human Capital	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Information & Influence	6	6	6	6	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Governance & Integrity	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	9	8	8	6	6	4	3	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Financial Strength	14	14	14	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Production & Innovation	10	10	10	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Trade & Investment	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	11	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−0.516	−40.1	0.00
No shocks	+1.454	+99.2	+0.50
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.003	+0.2	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.021	+1.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.024	+1.8	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.003	+0.1	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.017	−0.7	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.462	+32.0	0.00
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.304	+20.5	0.00
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.235	+16.3	0.00

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Events	Graph
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.55	16.78	+8.23	+9.23	−0.87	−0.12
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	17.32	+4.86	+5.92	−0.58	−0.48
Land Power	National Security	13.07	17.76	+4.69	+4.78	−0.57	+0.48
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	15.59	+4.00	+4.52	−0.57	+0.05
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	15.29	+3.34	+4.56	−1.04	−0.18
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	12.49	+1.89	+3.64	−1.27	−0.47
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	6.44	+0.08	+0.84	−0.64	−0.13
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.49	1.38	−0.11	0.00	−0.10	−0.02
Population Health	Human Capital	9.88	9.70	−0.18	+1.17	−1.08	−0.27
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.84	−0.23	0.00	−0.21	−0.02
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	9.87	−0.28	+0.56	−0.74	−0.10
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.64	10.30	−0.34	+1.11	−1.31	−0.14
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	4.29	−0.40	0.00	−0.34	−0.06
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.93	−0.41	0.00	−0.31	−0.10
Maritime Power	National Security	10.40	9.94	−0.46	0.00	−0.57	+0.12
Air Power	National Security	11.30	10.84	−0.46	0.00	−0.56	+0.10
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	7.49	6.98	−0.51	0.00	−0.44	−0.07
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.97	5.45	−0.52	0.00	−0.43	−0.09
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	6.03	−0.55	0.00	−0.48	−0.07
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	6.42	−0.55	0.00	−0.41	−0.14
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	7.39	6.80	−0.59	0.00	−0.54	−0.05
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	6.17	−0.60	0.00	−0.49	−0.10
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.77	10.16	−0.61	0.00	−0.57	−0.04
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.80	−0.64	0.00	−0.63	−0.01
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.09	10.44	−0.65	0.00	−0.57	−0.08
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.68	−0.66	0.00	−0.54	−0.13
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.24	9.57	−0.67	0.00	−0.64	−0.04
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	8.58	−0.70	0.00	−0.69	−0.01
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.96	11.24	−0.72	+0.47	−0.90	−0.29
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.98	9.21	−0.77	0.00	−0.66	−0.10
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.10	−0.83	0.00	−0.77	−0.07
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.56	−0.84	0.00	−0.69	−0.15
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.93	−0.92	0.00	−0.76	−0.15
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	11.16	−0.95	0.00	−0.90	−0.06
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.21	9.25	−0.96	+0.52	−1.27	−0.21
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.71	−0.97	0.00	−0.75	−0.23
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.21	10.23	−0.98	0.00	−0.79	−0.19
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.15	10.17	−0.98	0.00	−0.79	−0.19
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.57	−1.04	0.00	−0.76	−0.28
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.70	−1.05	0.00	−1.03	−0.02
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.89	7.78	−1.11	0.00	−0.78	−0.33
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.71	10.60	−1.11	0.00	−1.01	−0.10
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.01	8.89	−1.12	0.00	−0.88	−0.24
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	9.78	−1.18	0.00	−0.91	−0.26
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	9.59	−1.19	0.00	−1.02	−0.16
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.71	−1.20	0.00	−1.10	−0.11
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	8.83	−1.42	0.00	−1.11	−0.31
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	9.37	−1.43	+0.23	−1.46	−0.20
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.97	−1.45	0.00	−1.31	−0.14
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	11.46	−1.50	0.00	−1.13	−0.37
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	8.27	−1.60	0.00	−1.39	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.45	8.84	−1.61	0.00	−1.54	−0.07
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.02	9.38	−1.64	0.00	−1.49	−0.15
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	9.70	−1.65	+0.48	−1.68	−0.45
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.31	8.64	−1.67	0.00	−1.42	−0.25
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	9.06	−1.74	0.00	−1.42	−0.32
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.89	9.14	−1.75	0.00	−1.46	−0.29
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	9.67	−1.77	0.00	−1.67	−0.10
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.34	9.46	−1.88	0.00	−1.68	−0.20
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.50	7.62	−1.88	0.00	−1.60	−0.28
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	7.99	−1.90	0.00	−1.67	−0.24
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.74	−2.00	0.00	−1.83	−0.17
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	8.71	−2.01	0.00	−1.75	−0.26
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.19	8.05	−2.14	0.00	−2.17	+0.03
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.76	−2.21	0.00	−2.12	−0.09
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.73	8.52	−2.21	0.00	−1.96	−0.25
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.70	8.44	−2.26	0.00	−2.09	−0.18
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.74	−2.28	0.00	−2.09	−0.20
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.98	9.63	−2.35	0.00	−2.14	−0.21
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	8.79	−2.37	0.00	−1.65	−0.73
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	7.92	−2.48	0.00	−2.73	+0.25
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	8.29	−2.69	0.00	−2.63	−0.06
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	6.95	−3.37	0.00	−2.94	−0.43

Seed 19 of experiment cycle-003.e4-col. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.