Simulation 3
Hungary, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 3: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.85 at the 1996 position, 10.93 in 2026; 123 actions over 30 rounds and 3 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 3
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 14 (median simulation), 26 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 10.93 (+0.07)
- From 10.85
- Rank by index
- 36
- From 36
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 3 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.90 +0.044 | |
| 1998 |
| 10.98 +0.087 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.07 +0.089 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.15 +0.082 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.22 +0.068 | |
| 2002 |
| 11.28 +0.055 | |
| 2003 |
| 11.32 +0.038 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 11.48 +0.161 |
| 2005 |
| 11.63 +0.158 | |
| 2006 |
| 11.79 +0.160 | |
| 2007 |
| 11.83 +0.034 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 11.48 −0.351 |
| 2009 |
| 11.50 +0.023 | |
| 2010 |
| 11.52 +0.015 | |
| 2011 |
| 11.53 +0.017 | |
| 2012 |
| 11.55 +0.015 | |
| 2013 |
| 11.56 +0.016 | |
| 2014 |
| 11.58 +0.019 | |
| 2015 |
| 11.60 +0.018 | |
| 2016 |
| 11.62 +0.017 | |
| 2017 |
| 11.63 +0.016 | |
| 2018 |
| 11.65 +0.015 | |
| 2019 |
| 11.66 +0.017 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 11.19 −0.471 |
| 2021 |
| 11.21 +0.012 | |
| 2022 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 11.10 −0.105 |
| 2023 |
| 11.00 −0.103 | |
| 2024 |
| 10.90 −0.101 | |
| 2025 |
| 10.91 +0.014 | |
| 2026 |
| 10.93 +0.016 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.099 | −76.8 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +1.064 | +70.2 | +2.50 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.004 | −0.4 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.001 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.001 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.044 | −3.0 | −0.60 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.462 | +31.5 | +2.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.250 | +15.1 | +1.30 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.370 | +25.3 | +1.60 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 18.65 | +6.70 | +8.67 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.08 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 10.93 | 17.07 | +6.14 | +6.46 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.10 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.58 | 18.68 | +6.10 | +4.94 | 0.00 | +0.31 | +0.85 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.33 | 18.49 | +5.16 | +7.96 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 11.43 | 16.31 | +4.88 | +7.34 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.06 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.92 | 17.66 | +3.74 | +3.83 | 0.00 | −0.28 | +0.19 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.81 | 14.41 | +2.60 | +2.18 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.08 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.63 | 14.31 | +1.68 | +1.82 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.54 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.50 | 15.07 | +1.57 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.04 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.81 | 14.14 | +1.33 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.02 | 13.97 | +0.95 | +1.27 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.10 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.89 | 11.84 | +0.95 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.55 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 12.29 | 13.18 | +0.89 | +1.88 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.21 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 12.10 | +0.85 | +1.67 | 0.00 | −0.85 | +0.03 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.05 | 13.85 | +0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +1.22 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 15.05 | 15.62 | +0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.71 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.97 | 13.43 | +0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.64 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 13.93 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.34 | +0.09 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.78 | 13.20 | +0.42 | +0.41 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.55 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.16 | 9.50 | +0.34 | +1.52 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.04 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.95 | 14.17 | +0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.36 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 13.61 | 13.77 | +0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.32 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.27 | 15.41 | +0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.62 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.42 | 7.51 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.07 | +0.16 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.15 | 12.23 | +0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.03 | +0.06 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.54 | 12.59 | +0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.23 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 12.06 | 12.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.17 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.31 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 2.50 | 2.37 | −0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.40 | 10.23 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | +0.12 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.19 | 10.97 | −0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.10 | 8.85 | −0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 4.32 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 12.42 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.97 | 11.71 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.01 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.41 | 12.15 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 8.45 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.19 |
| Air Power | National Security | 8.54 | 8.25 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.16 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 5.37 | −0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.03 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 4.33 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.87 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 9.24 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.11 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.28 | 11.80 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.86 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.93 | 10.45 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.31 | 8.80 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.66 | 12.09 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.42 | 6.84 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.12 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 12.37 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | −0.18 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.11 | 6.47 | −0.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.30 | 4.65 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | +0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.35 | 10.63 | −0.72 | +0.28 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.08 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 7.33 | 6.59 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.07 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.98 | 7.21 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 7.62 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.04 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 9.52 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.75 | 9.84 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.67 | 11.74 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.81 | 10.88 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.93 | +0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 10.49 | 9.53 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | +0.03 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.03 | 6.94 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | −0.10 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.88 | 9.58 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | +0.15 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 13.22 | 11.88 | −1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.07 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.63 | 10.18 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.09 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.43 | 9.89 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.02 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 12.08 | 10.49 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.15 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 12.37 | 10.77 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | +0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 10.78 | 9.12 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | +0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.70 | 11.97 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | +0.06 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 9.20 | −1.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.01 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 10.34 | 8.48 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.18 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.57 | 9.69 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | +0.29 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.13 | 9.23 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.14 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.81 | 8.87 | −1.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.96 | +0.02 |
Seed 3 of experiment cycle-003.e4-hun. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.