Simulation 26
Italy, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 26: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 14.51 at the 1996 position, 13.93 in 2026; 112 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 26
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (median simulation), 2 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 13.93 (−0.57)
- From 14.51
- Rank by index
- 19
- From 16
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 14.54 +0.038 | |
| 1998 |
| 14.62 +0.075 | |
| 1999 |
| 14.72 +0.099 | |
| 2000 |
| 14.81 +0.096 | |
| 2001 |
| 14.90 +0.089 | |
| 2002 |
| 14.98 +0.075 | |
| 2003 |
| 15.05 +0.071 | |
| 2004 |
| 15.11 +0.057 | |
| 2005 |
| 15.15 +0.040 | |
| 2006 | No actions | 15.16 +0.012 | |
| 2007 | No actions | 15.16 +0.004 | |
| 2008 | No actions | Global funding seizure | 14.93 −0.239 |
| 2009 | No actions | Core disaster | 14.80 −0.125 |
| 2010 |
| 14.80 +0.003 | |
| 2011 |
| Global funding seizure | 14.45 −0.349 |
| 2012 |
| 14.46 +0.005 | |
| 2013 |
| 14.47 +0.011 | |
| 2014 |
| 14.50 +0.028 | |
| 2015 |
| 14.53 +0.033 | |
| 2016 |
| 14.56 +0.035 | |
| 2017 |
| 14.60 +0.030 | |
| 2018 |
| 14.62 +0.025 | |
| 2019 |
| 14.64 +0.022 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 14.13 −0.510 |
| 2021 |
| 14.14 +0.011 | |
| 2022 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 14.07 −0.073 |
| 2023 |
| 13.99 −0.076 | |
| 2024 |
| 13.92 −0.076 | |
| 2025 |
| 13.92 +0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 13.93 +0.010 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Production & Innovation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.524 | −108.4 | −2.30 |
| No shocks | +1.141 | +76.3 | +0.70 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.022 | −1.4 | −0.30 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.002 | +0.2 | −0.20 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.048 | +3.4 | +0.10 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.003 | +0.1 | +0.70 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | +0.011 | +0.9 | +0.80 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.481 | +32.7 | +1.80 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.198 | +13.7 | +0.80 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.279 | +19.7 | +0.70 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.92 | 18.67 | +4.75 | +6.75 | −0.02 | −1.29 | +0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.70 | 18.48 | +3.78 | +5.23 | −0.04 | −1.64 | +0.24 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 19.11 | +3.76 | +5.31 | −0.04 | −0.91 | +0.47 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.82 | 17.08 | +3.26 | +4.23 | −0.03 | −1.08 | +0.13 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.31 | 19.53 | +3.22 | +4.31 | −0.05 | −0.87 | −0.17 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.39 | 16.57 | +3.18 | +3.88 | −0.02 | −0.78 | +0.10 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.26 | 16.23 | +2.97 | +5.67 | −0.03 | −2.77 | +0.10 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.91 | 18.80 | +2.89 | +3.08 | −0.08 | −0.55 | +0.43 |
| Air Power | National Security | 15.72 | 18.49 | +2.77 | +3.25 | −0.08 | −0.55 | +0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 17.08 | 19.08 | +2.00 | +2.47 | −0.08 | −0.53 | +0.14 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.70 | 18.66 | +1.96 | +2.57 | −0.04 | −0.95 | +0.37 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.29 | 19.10 | +1.81 | +2.77 | −0.04 | −0.83 | −0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.95 | 17.60 | +1.65 | +4.51 | −0.03 | −2.31 | −0.06 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 15.37 | 16.59 | +1.22 | +2.96 | −0.04 | −1.68 | −0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.16 | 17.02 | +0.86 | +2.06 | −0.02 | −1.54 | +0.36 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.45 | 17.30 | +0.85 | +4.03 | −0.04 | −2.42 | +0.19 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.85 | 12.65 | −0.20 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.54 | +0.39 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 3.75 | 3.51 | −0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.01 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.08 | 15.74 | −0.34 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.31 | +1.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 12.25 | −0.43 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.97 | −0.12 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 13.96 | −0.45 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.07 | +0.65 |
| Land Power | National Security | 14.14 | 13.58 | −0.56 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.53 | +0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 13.46 | 12.89 | −0.57 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.53 | +0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.55 | 12.96 | −0.59 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.53 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 11.66 | 11.05 | −0.61 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.55 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.02 | 14.37 | −0.65 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.52 | −0.08 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 15.62 | 14.92 | −0.70 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.27 | +0.58 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.31 | 13.58 | −0.73 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.84 | +0.13 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 15.04 | 14.28 | −0.76 | +1.32 | −0.04 | −2.41 | +0.37 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 15.18 | 14.37 | −0.81 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.83 | +0.05 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 14.56 | 13.68 | −0.88 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.84 | −0.02 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 14.55 | 13.66 | −0.89 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.22 | +0.36 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 10.70 | −0.91 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.88 | −0.02 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 11.73 | 10.79 | −0.94 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.99 | +0.06 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 13.29 | 12.33 | −0.96 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.09 | +0.14 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.80 | 15.84 | −0.96 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −0.81 | −0.13 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 11.66 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.97 | −0.05 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.99 | 13.97 | −1.02 | +0.65 | −0.04 | −1.74 | +0.11 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.80 | 11.78 | −1.02 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.96 | −0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.66 | 13.63 | −1.03 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.92 | −0.08 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.32 | 11.29 | −1.03 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.97 | −0.05 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.58 | 13.45 | −1.13 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.22 | +0.16 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 15.83 | 14.68 | −1.15 | +1.56 | −0.03 | −2.53 | −0.15 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.29 | 11.13 | −1.16 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −0.95 | −0.19 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 13.09 | 11.83 | −1.26 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.37 | +0.14 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.98 | 11.71 | −1.27 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.25 | +0.04 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.18 | 14.88 | −1.30 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −1.19 | −0.10 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.32 | 15.02 | −1.30 | 0.00 | −0.03 | −1.26 | 0.00 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.62 | 9.30 | −1.32 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.29 | +0.02 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.16 | 10.80 | −1.36 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.35 | +0.05 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 14.65 | 13.29 | −1.36 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.22 | −0.07 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.34 | 14.97 | −1.37 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −1.31 | −0.08 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.37 | 13.99 | −1.38 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.33 | −0.01 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 13.49 | 12.11 | −1.38 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.24 | −0.08 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 17.85 | 16.44 | −1.41 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −1.29 | −0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 12.43 | 10.98 | −1.45 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.26 | −0.12 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 12.55 | 11.01 | −1.54 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −1.53 | +0.05 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.00 | 13.44 | −1.56 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −1.47 | −0.02 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 15.03 | 13.35 | −1.68 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.60 | −0.03 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.29 | 14.44 | −1.85 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.08 | +0.28 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.04 | 13.15 | −1.89 | +0.62 | −0.03 | −2.60 | +0.11 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.98 | 14.97 | −2.01 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −2.13 | +0.17 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 14.79 | 12.77 | −2.02 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.77 | −0.21 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 12.82 | −2.06 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −1.92 | −0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 12.37 | 10.26 | −2.11 | 0.00 | −0.02 | −1.90 | −0.18 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.16 | 10.94 | −2.22 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −2.10 | −0.07 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 14.92 | 12.69 | −2.23 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.99 | +0.80 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.32 | 14.68 | −2.64 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −2.36 | −0.23 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.73 | 13.08 | −2.65 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.41 | −0.20 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 14.41 | 11.65 | −2.76 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −2.45 | −0.26 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 16.78 | 14.00 | −2.78 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −2.38 | −0.36 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.09 | 10.90 | −3.19 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −3.09 | −0.06 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.05 | 9.77 | −3.28 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −3.19 | −0.06 |
Seed 26 of experiment cycle-003.e4-ita. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.