Simulation 22
Philippines, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.40 at the 1996 position, 8.18 in 2026; 171 actions over 30 rounds and 7 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 22
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 11 (median simulation), 29 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.18 (−1.22)
- From 9.40
- Rank by index
- 64
- From 53
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 7 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.27 −0.129 |
| 1998 |
| Breadbasket failure | 9.16 −0.111 |
| 1999 |
| 9.17 +0.014 | |
| 2000 |
| 9.19 +0.015 | |
| 2001 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.07 −0.113 |
| 2002 |
| 9.09 +0.013 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.10 +0.012 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.12 +0.015 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.13 +0.016 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.15 +0.023 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.18 +0.030 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.11 −0.079 |
| 2009 |
| Core disaster | 8.83 −0.276 |
| 2010 |
| 8.85 +0.024 | |
| 2011 |
| 8.87 +0.014 | |
| 2012 |
| 8.88 +0.010 | |
| 2013 |
| Core disaster | 8.33 −0.544 |
| 2014 |
| 8.34 +0.003 | |
| 2015 |
| 8.34 0.000 | |
| 2016 |
| 8.34 +0.007 | |
| 2017 |
| 8.35 +0.008 | |
| 2018 |
| 8.36 +0.010 | |
| 2019 |
| 8.38 +0.018 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 7.99 −0.390 |
| 2021 |
| 8.01 +0.021 | |
| 2022 |
| 8.04 +0.032 | |
| 2023 |
| 8.08 +0.042 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.12 +0.036 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.15 +0.031 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.18 +0.028 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Production & Innovation | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.834 | −61.4 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +2.099 | +145.5 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.656 | +46.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.466 | +32.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.368 | +25.8 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.02 | 12.65 | +3.63 | +6.48 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.35 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 9.58 | 12.95 | +3.37 | +4.89 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.21 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.80 | 11.10 | +3.30 | +5.92 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.18 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 10.62 | 12.93 | +2.31 | +5.45 | 0.00 | −3.03 | −0.11 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.72 | 12.94 | +2.22 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 11.62 | 12.79 | +1.17 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −1.39 | +0.03 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 11.73 | 12.65 | +0.92 | +3.67 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.27 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 10.02 | +0.62 | +1.86 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.10 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 11.19 | +0.35 | +1.71 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.07 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.61 | 10.86 | +0.25 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.27 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.30 | −0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.53 | 9.34 | −0.19 | +1.91 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.38 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.95 | 2.61 | −0.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.06 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.86 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.08 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 4.19 | −0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.07 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 4.91 | 4.36 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.45 | −0.10 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 5.08 | 4.51 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | −0.10 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.83 | 6.22 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | +0.01 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 6.63 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.05 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 4.95 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.67 | −0.08 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.18 | 4.42 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.15 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 6.97 | 6.20 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.14 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 7.69 | 6.83 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.31 | 4.43 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.07 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.75 | 5.81 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.16 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.65 | 8.70 | −0.95 | +1.02 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.32 |
| Air Power | National Security | 6.88 | 5.92 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.16 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.46 | 4.40 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.15 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 7.66 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.28 | 6.10 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.32 | 6.11 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | −0.17 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.12 | 8.88 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | −0.12 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 5.37 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.21 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.33 | 8.07 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.22 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.24 | 8.98 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.14 | 7.87 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.08 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 9.93 | 8.59 | −1.34 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −1.96 | −0.35 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 8.11 | 6.76 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | −0.24 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.99 | 9.64 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.03 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.63 | 8.28 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.06 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.51 | 8.12 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.12 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 10.80 | 9.38 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.38 | −0.04 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.11 | 8.57 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.24 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 10.07 | 8.48 | −1.59 | +1.12 | 0.00 | −2.40 | −0.30 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.56 | 8.95 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | +0.03 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 13.06 | 11.44 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 10.86 | 9.13 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.26 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 7.58 | 5.82 | −1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.19 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 11.71 | 9.95 | −1.76 | +0.95 | 0.00 | −2.61 | −0.10 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.12 | 10.35 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 9.50 | 7.71 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | +0.18 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.22 | 9.40 | −1.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.21 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 13.33 | 11.44 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.18 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.65 | 7.67 | −1.98 | +2.52 | 0.00 | −4.74 | +0.24 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.63 | 10.55 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.27 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.20 | 7.04 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.29 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.69 | 8.50 | −2.19 | +2.57 | 0.00 | −4.32 | −0.45 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.52 | 7.29 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.93 | −0.30 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 12.79 | 10.54 | −2.25 | +0.89 | 0.00 | −2.89 | −0.25 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.08 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.31 | −0.03 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 9.36 | 7.01 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.18 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.41 | 7.99 | −2.42 | +0.83 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.39 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 6.56 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.26 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.53 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.28 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 9.78 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +0.12 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.34 | 8.84 | −2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.42 | −0.08 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 8.58 | 5.98 | −2.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.23 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.99 | 6.38 | −2.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | −0.23 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.07 | 6.44 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.47 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 8.02 | −2.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.53 | −0.18 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 9.18 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.70 | −0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 7.12 | −2.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.92 | +0.10 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.36 | 7.58 | −3.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.70 | −0.08 |
Seed 22 of experiment cycle-003.e4-phl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.