Round 2029
Round 3 of 20 in simulation 3 of Brazil, tree search, 20 years: 5 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.104 to 11.67.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0
State in and state out
The simulation as it came into 2029 (the end of 2028) and as it left it.
- Capability index
- 11.67 (−0.104)
- In: 11.77
- Rank by index
- 31
- In: 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- In: 0
- Credits carried
- 39
- In: 26
| Domain | In | Out | Change | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8.95 | 8.72 | −0.229 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.71 | −0.092 | 3 |
| National Security | 9.44 | 9.45 | +0.012 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 12.40 | 12.65 | +0.244 | 6 → 4 |
| Information & Influence | 12.04 | 11.97 | −0.064 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12.11 | 11.97 | −0.145 | 9 |
| Financial Strength | 13.13 | 12.89 | −0.236 | 9 → 10 |
| Production & Innovation | 11.88 | 11.72 | −0.156 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 12.18 | 11.91 | −0.271 | 7 |
Decision, shocks and propagation
What happened in 2029: the credits, the tree search (mcts) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.
Credits. Income 386, plus 26 carried in. Maintenance 277. Spent 97 on actions (build 77, partner 19). 39 carried over.
- PartnerEconomic Output & Productivity19 credits for 0.99 levelsmctsahead of Technical & Vocational Skills by 0 per cent
- BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.70 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.72 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.84 levelsmcts_fill
- BuildFoundational Education19 credits for 1.22 levelsmcts_fill
- Shock: AI labour shock S08. −36.8 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.
Tiers. Human Capital Tier 6 to 4; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 10.
| Moved most | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | +0.95 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.13 | 0.00 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | +0.90 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | +0.84 | +1.04 | 0.00 | −0.20 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | +0.80 | +1.06 | 0.00 | −0.26 | 0.00 |
| Digital & Services Trade | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 |
| Artificial Intelligence | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.41 | 0.00 |