Round 1 · simulation 40 · mcts-m2.m2-ken-greedy-marginal

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 40 of Kenya, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Regional war spillover, and the index −0.711 to 6.47.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index
6.47 (−0.711)
In: 7.18
Rank by index
90
In: 79
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
2
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology2.902.53−0.37112
Strategic Infrastructure7.886.90−0.9777 → 8
National Security4.603.52−1.0749 → 10
Human Capital7.687.45−0.22712
Information & Influence8.217.96−0.2539
Governance & Integrity8.898.36−0.53414 → 15
Financial Strength8.577.60−0.96517 → 20
Production & Innovation7.576.78−0.79014 → 17
Trade & Investment8.307.09−1.21112 → 13

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 143. Maintenance 110. Spent 32 on actions (build 17, buy 14). 2 carried over.

  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills7 credits for 0.89 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies by 11 per cent
  • BuyConnectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies7 credits for 1.06 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Development Cooperation & Global Assistance by 0 per cent
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance7 credits for 0.91 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 0 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling7 credits for 0.86 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Digital & AI Competence by 1 per cent
  • BuildDigital & AI Competence3 credits for 0.31 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 1 per cent
  • Shock: Regional war spillover S03. −55.2 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Strategic Infrastructure Tier 7 to 8; National Security Tier 9 to 10; Governance & Integrity Tier 14 to 15; Financial Strength Tier 17 to 20; Production & Innovation Tier 14 to 17; Trade & Investment Tier 12 to 13.

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Economic Leverage & Dependence−1.920.000.00−1.920.00
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence−1.860.000.00−1.860.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics−1.850.000.00−1.850.00
Maritime Power−1.830.000.00−1.830.00
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment−1.750.000.00−1.750.00
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance−1.650.000.00−1.650.00