Simulation 4
South Korea, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 4: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 10. Capability index 13.13 at the 1996 position, 12.73 in 2026; 55 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1 · seed 4
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 7 (median simulation), 8 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 12.73 (−0.40)
- From 13.13
- Rank by index
- 23
- From 21
- Domains at Tier 1
- 2
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.87 −0.257 |
| 1998 |
| 12.95 +0.083 | |
| 1999 |
| 13.06 +0.107 | |
| 2000 |
| 13.16 +0.102 | |
| 2001 |
| 13.26 +0.095 | |
| 2002 |
| 13.34 +0.086 | |
| 2003 |
| 13.44 +0.094 | |
| 2004 |
| 13.51 +0.074 | |
| 2005 |
| 13.56 +0.048 | |
| 2006 | No actions | 13.58 +0.021 | |
| 2007 | No actions | 13.57 −0.010 | |
| 2008 | No actions | Global funding seizure | 13.39 −0.175 |
| 2009 | No actions | 13.38 −0.014 | |
| 2010 | No actions | 13.37 −0.015 | |
| 2011 | No actions | 13.35 −0.012 | |
| 2012 | No actions | 13.34 −0.011 | |
| 2013 | No actions | 13.33 −0.009 | |
| 2014 | No actions | 13.33 −0.006 | |
| 2015 | No actions | 13.32 −0.005 | |
| 2016 | No actions | 13.32 −0.004 | |
| 2017 | No actions | 13.32 −0.003 | |
| 2018 | No actions | 13.31 −0.002 | |
| 2019 | No actions | Trade bloc rupture | 13.24 −0.071 |
| 2020 | No actions | Severe pandemic | 12.78 −0.468 |
| 2021 |
| 12.70 −0.077 | |
| 2022 |
| 12.69 −0.004 | |
| 2023 |
| 12.70 +0.005 | |
| 2024 |
| 12.71 +0.013 | |
| 2025 |
| 12.72 +0.009 | |
| 2026 |
| 12.73 +0.008 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 7 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 3 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.842 | −55.7 | −2.00 |
| No shocks | +1.060 | +70.5 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.028 | −1.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.032 | −2.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.019 | +1.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.005 | +0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | −1.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.338 | +22.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.370 | +24.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.195 | +12.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.54 | 19.11 | +5.57 | +6.71 | −0.42 | −0.74 | +0.05 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 9.42 | 14.32 | +4.90 | +6.31 | −0.12 | −1.70 | +0.41 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 9.67 | 14.48 | +4.81 | +5.89 | −0.19 | −0.83 | −0.04 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.60 | 15.11 | +4.51 | +6.29 | −0.13 | −1.72 | +0.07 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.13 | 17.73 | +3.60 | +5.58 | −0.24 | −1.52 | −0.22 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.61 | 19.09 | +3.48 | +4.45 | −0.30 | −0.51 | −0.15 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 15.85 | 18.93 | +3.08 | +4.23 | −0.08 | −0.97 | −0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.20 | 18.75 | +2.55 | +4.32 | −0.26 | −1.26 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 15.32 | 17.39 | +2.07 | +3.56 | −0.34 | −1.11 | −0.05 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 14.91 | 16.70 | +1.79 | +3.30 | −0.23 | −1.10 | −0.18 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.79 | 19.17 | +1.38 | +2.85 | −0.42 | −0.99 | −0.06 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.32 | 12.68 | +1.36 | +2.63 | −0.25 | −0.95 | −0.07 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.27 | 12.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.34 | +0.57 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 1.43 | −0.06 | 0.00 | −0.01 | −0.06 | 0.00 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 13.83 | 13.59 | −0.24 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.54 | +0.39 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.50 | 12.97 | −0.53 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.54 | +0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.86 | 5.33 | −0.53 | +0.23 | −0.13 | −0.58 | −0.05 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 8.17 | 7.57 | −0.60 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.29 | −0.16 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 12.19 | −0.63 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.33 | −0.07 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 14.04 | 13.37 | −0.67 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.08 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 11.61 | 10.93 | −0.68 | 0.00 | −0.07 | −0.56 | −0.05 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 13.85 | 13.17 | −0.68 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.84 | +0.22 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.36 | 14.66 | −0.70 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.53 | −0.07 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 13.85 | 13.14 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −0.25 | −0.33 | −0.13 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 12.25 | 11.54 | −0.71 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.34 | −0.15 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.97 | 13.24 | −0.73 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.85 | +0.27 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.32 | 11.58 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.66 | −0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.33 | −0.74 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.68 | −0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 17.34 | 16.59 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.12 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.95 | 13.20 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.64 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.91 | 12.16 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.05 | −0.77 | +0.07 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.84 | 10.09 | −0.75 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.68 | −0.03 |
| Air Power | National Security | 14.61 | 13.85 | −0.76 | 0.00 | −0.27 | −0.32 | −0.18 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 13.22 | −0.78 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.54 | −0.15 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.41 | 13.62 | −0.79 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.57 | −0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.74 | 13.95 | −0.79 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.62 | −0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.34 | 11.54 | −0.80 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.59 | −0.09 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.10 | 15.28 | −0.82 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.52 | −0.19 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.83 | 10.99 | −0.84 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.59 | −0.13 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.39 | 15.54 | −0.85 | 0.00 | −0.30 | −0.31 | −0.23 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.35 | 14.49 | −0.86 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.56 | −0.15 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.03 | 6.13 | −0.90 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.68 | −0.06 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.31 | 13.41 | −0.90 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −0.57 | −0.18 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.45 | 16.52 | −0.93 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.55 | −0.21 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.33 | 10.37 | −0.96 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −0.59 | −0.25 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 15.02 | −0.96 | 0.00 | −0.10 | −0.78 | −0.09 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 14.08 | 13.05 | −1.03 | 0.00 | −0.06 | −0.80 | −0.17 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.79 | 10.75 | −1.04 | 0.00 | −0.26 | −0.94 | +0.16 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.39 | −1.13 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −0.97 | 0.00 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 9.10 | 7.92 | −1.18 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −0.87 | −0.20 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.70 | 13.52 | −1.18 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −1.20 | +0.21 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 13.63 | −1.25 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.93 | −0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.25 | 11.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −1.48 | +0.39 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 10.98 | 9.71 | −1.27 | 0.00 | −0.24 | −0.96 | −0.08 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.32 | 14.02 | −1.30 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −0.75 | −0.41 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 15.16 | 13.83 | −1.33 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −1.19 | +0.06 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 12.96 | 11.62 | −1.34 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.93 | −0.13 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.56 | 13.20 | −1.36 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.99 | −0.28 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.91 | 11.39 | −1.52 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −1.19 | −0.15 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.79 | 9.26 | −1.53 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −1.31 | −0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.42 | 10.82 | −1.60 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −1.37 | −0.06 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 12.26 | 10.64 | −1.62 | 0.00 | −0.16 | −1.23 | −0.23 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 14.64 | 12.88 | −1.76 | 0.00 | −0.19 | −1.70 | +0.14 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 16.50 | 14.65 | −1.85 | 0.00 | −0.21 | −1.66 | +0.03 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.51 | 8.62 | −1.89 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −1.60 | −0.06 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 13.90 | 11.98 | −1.92 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −1.79 | +0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.81 | 12.81 | −2.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −1.83 | −0.04 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 10.10 | −2.05 | 0.00 | −0.15 | −1.75 | −0.14 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.60 | 11.46 | −2.14 | 0.00 | −0.11 | −2.10 | +0.07 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 14.65 | −2.15 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −1.85 | −0.08 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.95 | 11.47 | −2.48 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −2.19 | −0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 9.44 | −2.48 | 0.00 | −0.14 | −2.21 | −0.13 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.36 | 11.86 | −2.50 | 0.00 | −0.12 | −2.25 | −0.14 |
Seed 4 of experiment mcts-m7.m7-kor-scripted-history. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.