Round 4 · simulation 1 · cmaes-dev.dev-est-cmaes-open-loop

Round 2030

Round 4 of 4 in simulation 1 of Estonia, evolution strategy, 4 years: 5 actions, and the index +0.100 to 11.79.

Model 0.2.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.1

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2030 (the end of 2029) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.79 (+0.100)
In: 11.69
Rank by index
30
In: 30
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
254
In: 185
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology6.636.84+0.2137 → 6
Strategic Infrastructure10.8610.86+0.0025
National Security7.647.67+0.0346
Human Capital14.5614.560.0003
Information & Influence11.2011.44+0.2376
Governance & Integrity15.4615.46+0.0013
Financial Strength13.1213.14+0.0209 → 8
Production & Innovation13.0513.23+0.1885
Trade & Investment12.7112.91+0.2086

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2030: the credits, the evolution strategy (cma-es) method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 403, plus 185 carried in. Maintenance 274. Spent 60 on actions (buy 48, partner 12). 254 carried over.

  • BuySemiconductors & Advanced Computing12 credits for 1.01 levelscmaes
  • BuyDevelopment Cooperation & Global Assistance12 credits for 1.05 levelscmaes
  • BuyEconomic Output & Productivity12 credits for 0.70 levelscmaes
  • BuyInvestment Attraction & Projection12 credits for 0.65 levelscmaes
  • PartnerAir Power12 credits for 0.80 levelscmaes

Tiers. Critical Technology Tier 7 to 6; Financial Strength Tier 9 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2030, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance+1.40+1.380.000.00+0.02
Economic Output & Productivity+1.25+1.250.000.000.00
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing+1.01+1.010.000.000.00
Investment Attraction & Projection+0.66+0.650.000.00+0.01
Trade Policy & Market Access+0.60+0.590.000.000.00
Artificial Intelligence+0.500.000.000.00+0.50