Round 1 · simulation 99 · cycle-001.e3-bra-greedy-marginal

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 99 of Brazil, greedy, 20 years: 5 actions, Market access opening, and the index +0.074 to 11.76.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index
11.76 (+0.074)
In: 11.69
Rank by index
30
In: 30
Domains at Tier 1
0
In: 0
Credits carried
15
In: 0
Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
DomainInOutChangeTier
Critical Technology8.958.98+0.0256
Strategic Infrastructure13.8013.87+0.0613
National Security9.429.420.0005
Human Capital11.8812.21+0.3327 → 6
Information & Influence11.8611.89+0.0265
Governance & Integrity12.1112.18+0.0639
Financial Strength13.1313.15+0.0259
Production & Innovation11.8811.93+0.0518 → 6
Trade & Investment12.1812.26+0.0797

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the greedy method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 386. Maintenance 275. Spent 97 on actions (build 77, buy 19). 15 carried over.

  • BuildDigital & AI Competence19 credits for 1.82 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technical & Vocational Skills by 2 per cent
  • BuildTechnical & Vocational Skills19 credits for 1.84 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Lifelong Learning & Reskilling by 1 per cent
  • BuildLifelong Learning & Reskilling19 credits for 1.99 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Research Talent & Knowledge Creation by 11 per cent
  • BuyResearch Talent & Knowledge Creation19 credits for 1.11 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Foundational Education by 2 per cent
  • BuildFoundational Education19 credits for 1.24 levelshighest_marginal_returnahead of Technology Adoption & Diffusion by 3 per cent
  • Upside event: Market access opening S12. +9.3 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure and readiness, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Human Capital Tier 7 to 6; Production & Innovation Tier 8 to 6.

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved mostChangeInvestedDecayEventsGraph
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation+1.16+1.110.00+0.050.00
Technical & Vocational Skills+0.47+0.370.00+0.100.00
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling+0.45+0.400.00+0.050.00
Digital & AI Competence+0.41+0.360.00+0.050.00
Foundational Education+0.30+0.250.00+0.050.00
Trade Facilitation & Logistics+0.100.000.00+0.100.00