Round 20 · simulation 21 · cycle-001.e3-bra-hold

Round 2046

Round 20 of 20 in simulation 21 of Brazil, hold, 20 years: 0 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.136 to 10.31.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2046 (the end of 2045) and as it left it.

Capability index: 10.31 (−0.136); In: 10.45
Rank by index: 44; In: 44
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 1,167; In: 1,090

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	8.25	8.09	−0.156	6
Strategic Infrastructure	13.01	12.95	−0.063	3
National Security	8.74	8.77	+0.030	5
Human Capital	11.43	11.30	−0.126	7
Information & Influence	10.32	10.11	−0.204	6
Governance & Integrity	11.26	11.16	−0.096	10
Financial Strength	10.49	10.29	−0.203	11 → 12
Production & Innovation	10.28	10.10	−0.182	9
Trade & Investment	10.26	10.04	−0.219	10

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2046: the credits, the hold method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 309, plus 1,090 carried in. Maintenance 231. Nothing spent on actions. 1,167 carried over.

Shock: AI labour shock S08. −32.5 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Financial Strength Tier 11 to 12.

The groups that moved most in 2046, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Events	Graph
Digital & Services Trade	−0.39	−0.38	−0.01
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−0.37	−0.34	−0.02
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	−0.35	−0.34	0.00
Labour & Employment	−0.33	−0.32	−0.01
Artificial Intelligence	−0.33	−0.29	−0.03
Export Capability & Sophistication	−0.22	−0.17	−0.04