Simulation 21
Brazil, hold, 20 years, seed 21: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 10.31 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 21
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 95 (median simulation), 91 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 10.31 (−1.38)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 44
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | Chronic disease advance | 11.73 +0.043 |
| 2028 | No actions | Global funding seizure | 11.46 −0.269 |
| 2029 | No actions | 11.50 +0.037 | |
| 2030 | No actions | 11.54 +0.035 | |
| 2031 | No actions | 11.58 +0.039 | |
| 2032 | No actions | AI labour shock | 11.45 −0.124 |
| 2033 | No actions | 11.33 −0.126 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 11.20 −0.126 | |
| 2035 | No actions | 11.19 −0.006 | |
| 2036 | No actions | 11.19 −0.007 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 11.18 −0.007 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 11.17 −0.006 | |
| 2039 | No actions | Automated discovery step | 11.22 +0.045 |
| 2040 | No actions | Legitimacy rupture | 10.75 −0.470 |
| 2041 | No actions | 10.79 +0.040 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 10.78 −0.013 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 10.77 −0.010 | |
| 2044 | No actions | Global funding seizure | 10.43 −0.336 |
| 2045 | No actions | Automated discovery step | 10.45 +0.019 |
| 2046 | No actions | AI labour shock | 10.31 −0.136 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.844 | +59.1 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.453 | +31.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.301 | +21.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.243 | +17.4 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.11 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.62 | −0.01 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.15 | −0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.23 | −0.04 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 12.29 | −0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.02 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 11.35 | −0.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.17 | −0.15 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 12.09 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.04 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.57 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.37 | −0.07 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 10.89 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.39 | −0.05 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 10.23 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 10.74 | −0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | −0.11 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.47 | −0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.43 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.08 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 8.76 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.51 | −0.06 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 5.74 | −0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.55 | −0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.39 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.13 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 6.70 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.09 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 10.87 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.37 | −0.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 9.78 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.63 | −0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.57 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.09 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 11.32 | −0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.10 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.09 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.12 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.26 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.48 | −0.26 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 4.57 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.02 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 13.24 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.17 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 11.44 | −0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.58 | −0.18 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 11.42 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.17 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 7.47 | −0.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.10 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.21 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.22 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.15 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.10 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 9.65 | −0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.04 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.63 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.61 | −0.27 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 8.52 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.01 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 9.79 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.08 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 8.88 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 8.41 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.05 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 7.83 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.09 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 11.70 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.05 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 10.52 | −0.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.03 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 5.26 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 9.63 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.98 | −0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.33 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.45 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 11.50 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.46 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 9.75 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.09 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 12.74 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.12 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.08 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 7.93 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.14 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.30 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.51 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 11.72 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 12.77 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.52 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.01 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 10.18 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 10.01 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.12 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.10 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.46 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.43 | −0.11 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 9.94 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.20 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 11.09 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.42 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.27 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.25 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 12.51 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.10 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 10.20 | −1.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.70 | −0.10 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 9.78 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.18 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 9.42 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.20 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 9.75 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.21 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 8.87 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.14 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 9.65 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.18 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 9.56 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.05 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 11.67 | −2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.05 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 10.70 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.53 | −0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 11.07 | −2.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.09 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 8.56 | −2.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.04 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 8.03 | −2.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.18 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 9.10 | −3.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.06 | −0.17 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 10.83 | −3.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.13 | −0.37 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 8.59 | −3.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.55 | −0.36 |
Seed 21 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.