Simulation 23
Brazil, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 23: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 13.59 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 23
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 65 (median simulation), 18 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 13.59 (+1.90)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 21
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 1 shock
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (aut) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.73 +0.043 | |
| 2028 |
| 11.80 +0.064 | |
| 2029 |
| 11.85 +0.056 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.93 +0.076 | |
| 2031 |
| Market access opening | 12.11 +0.182 |
| 2032 |
| Hybrid coercion | 12.05 −0.061 |
| 2033 |
| 12.20 +0.152 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.29 +0.083 | |
| 2035 |
| 12.39 +0.108 | |
| 2036 |
| 12.48 +0.090 | |
| 2037 |
| 12.55 +0.068 | |
| 2038 |
| 12.63 +0.083 | |
| 2039 |
| 12.73 +0.094 | |
| 2040 |
| 12.85 +0.119 | |
| 2041 |
| 12.93 +0.082 | |
| 2042 |
| 13.02 +0.093 | |
| 2043 |
| 13.13 +0.102 | |
| 2044 |
| Automated discovery step | 13.27 +0.147 |
| 2045 |
| 13.43 +0.163 | |
| 2046 |
| 13.59 +0.160 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.833 | −131.3 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.805 | +57.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.439 | +30.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.311 | +21.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.219 | +16.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 18.67 | +6.17 | +5.35 | 0.00 | +0.61 | +0.20 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 11.49 | +6.16 | +5.84 | 0.00 | +0.26 | +0.07 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 12.11 | +5.86 | +5.53 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.23 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 15.84 | +5.17 | +4.89 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.25 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 15.63 | +4.63 | +4.04 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.36 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 15.22 | +4.55 | +3.89 | 0.00 | +0.63 | +0.03 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 15.16 | +4.49 | +3.94 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.15 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 17.21 | +4.21 | +3.32 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.50 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 14.68 | +4.18 | +3.59 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.20 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.67 | +4.00 | +3.74 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.05 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 15.46 | +3.96 | +3.48 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.24 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 14.93 | +3.93 | +3.04 | 0.00 | +0.41 | +0.48 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 15.22 | +3.89 | +3.20 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.30 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 15.39 | +3.89 | +3.63 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 15.11 | +3.86 | +3.21 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.25 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 11.87 | +3.62 | +3.23 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +0.10 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 15.24 | +3.57 | +3.13 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.23 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 15.53 | +3.53 | +3.03 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 13.49 | +3.49 | +3.42 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.20 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 14.79 | +3.12 | +2.22 | 0.00 | +0.56 | +0.33 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 15.29 | +3.09 | +2.65 | 0.00 | +0.07 | +0.37 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 15.26 | +3.06 | +2.69 | 0.00 | +0.10 | +0.27 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 15.96 | +2.96 | +2.24 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.33 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 15.45 | +2.95 | +2.33 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.42 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 16.12 | +2.92 | +2.47 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.15 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 15.63 | +2.90 | +2.40 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.38 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 14.24 | +2.74 | +2.28 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.22 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 14.33 | +2.66 | +2.23 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.19 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 15.48 | +2.48 | +1.88 | 0.00 | +0.39 | +0.21 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 14.30 | +2.30 | +1.87 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.20 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 11.58 | +2.18 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.04 | +0.05 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 14.49 | +2.16 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.21 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 14.01 | +2.01 | +1.10 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.67 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 14.67 | +2.00 | +1.75 | 0.00 | +0.23 | +0.01 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 12.35 | +1.92 | +1.51 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 15.82 | +1.82 | +1.52 | 0.00 | +0.24 | +0.07 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 12.61 | +1.81 | +1.45 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.16 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 14.73 | +1.48 | +0.96 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.32 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 14.77 | +1.34 | +1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 10.65 | +1.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.29 | +1.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 14.85 | +1.18 | +0.95 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.04 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 12.15 | +0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.21 | +0.61 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 14.48 | +0.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.57 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 14.84 | +0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.44 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 13.96 | +0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.33 | +0.25 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 13.15 | +0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.30 | +0.24 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 12.52 | +0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.43 | +0.09 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 16.48 | +0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.36 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 14.76 | +0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.23 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 14.58 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.22 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 14.53 | +0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.20 | +0.13 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 10.09 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.13 | +0.16 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 9.09 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.17 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 12.79 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.11 | +0.19 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 14.79 | +0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.25 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.96 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 12.88 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.36 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 13.81 | +0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.32 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.52 | +0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.12 | +0.07 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | 0.00 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 14.17 | +0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.05 | +0.12 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 14.36 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.11 | +0.22 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.97 | −0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.12 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 11.45 | −0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | +0.10 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 9.91 | −0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.12 | +0.04 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.85 | −0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.15 | 0.00 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 7.16 | −0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 6.15 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.18 | 0.00 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 8.96 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +0.13 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 10.92 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.02 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 11.56 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 10.54 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.02 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 11.53 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | 0.00 |
Seed 23 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.