Simulation 18
Brazil, mirror a peer, 20 years, seed 18: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.69 at the 2026 position, 12.17 in 2046; 100 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 65 (median simulation), 23 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 12.17 (+0.48)
- From 11.69
- Rank by index
- 28
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the mirror a peer (aut) method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 11.73 +0.043 | |
| 2028 |
| Middle East settlement | 11.81 +0.082 |
| 2029 |
| 11.89 +0.074 | |
| 2030 |
| 11.98 +0.087 | |
| 2031 |
| Hybrid coercion | 11.83 −0.148 |
| 2032 |
| 11.93 +0.100 | |
| 2033 |
| 12.01 +0.084 | |
| 2034 |
| 12.08 +0.071 | |
| 2035 |
| Legitimacy ruptureBreadbasket failure | 11.80 −0.284 |
| 2036 |
| 11.87 +0.066 | |
| 2037 |
| Cryptographic trust break | 11.51 −0.352 |
| 2038 |
| 11.62 +0.109 | |
| 2039 |
| 11.67 +0.049 | |
| 2040 |
| Regional war spillover | 11.61 −0.059 |
| 2041 |
| 11.74 +0.123 | |
| 2042 |
| 11.81 +0.079 | |
| 2043 |
| 11.88 +0.063 | |
| 2044 |
| 11.97 +0.096 | |
| 2045 |
| 12.06 +0.088 | |
| 2046 |
| 12.17 +0.109 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.833 | −131.3 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +0.805 | +57.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.017 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.014 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.011 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.439 | +30.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.311 | +21.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.219 | +16.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 12.50 | 17.78 | +5.28 | +5.35 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.10 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 9.90 | +4.57 | +5.92 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.01 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.25 | 10.68 | +4.43 | +5.53 | 0.00 | −1.18 | +0.07 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.67 | 14.54 | +3.87 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.10 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 14.48 | +3.81 | +4.86 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.25 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 14.26 | +3.26 | +3.94 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.18 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.67 | 13.83 | +3.16 | +3.84 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +0.01 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 14.31 | +2.81 | +3.55 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.17 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 11.33 | 13.98 | +2.65 | +2.81 | 0.00 | −0.26 | +0.09 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 14.32 | +2.65 | +3.73 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.02 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 10.50 | 13.12 | +2.62 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.20 | −0.07 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.50 | 13.93 | +2.43 | +3.50 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.06 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 11.25 | 13.65 | +2.40 | +2.46 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.14 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 11.00 | 13.34 | +2.34 | +3.06 | 0.00 | −0.91 | +0.19 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 13.79 | +2.12 | +3.10 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.07 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 12.01 | +2.01 | +3.46 | 0.00 | −1.55 | +0.11 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 11.67 | 13.63 | +1.96 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −0.23 | +0.03 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 10.20 | +1.95 | +3.16 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.05 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.78 | +1.78 | +1.81 | 0.00 | −0.27 | +0.24 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.20 | 13.90 | +1.70 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 13.68 | +1.68 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.04 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.20 | 13.85 | +1.65 | +2.64 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.10 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.56 | +1.56 | +1.69 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.09 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.73 | 14.21 | +1.48 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.19 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 12.97 | +1.47 | +2.29 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.06 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 11.67 | 13.07 | +1.40 | +2.23 | 0.00 | −0.88 | +0.05 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 12.50 | 13.89 | +1.39 | +3.13 | 0.00 | −1.84 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 13.00 | 14.22 | +1.22 | +1.29 | 0.00 | −0.21 | +0.14 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 12.00 | 13.13 | +1.13 | +1.84 | 0.00 | −0.75 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.20 | 14.27 | +1.07 | +2.48 | 0.00 | −1.41 | 0.00 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 14.25 | 15.16 | +0.91 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.09 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 12.00 | 12.67 | +0.67 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.87 | +0.44 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 10.43 | 10.94 | +0.51 | +1.51 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.06 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.80 | 11.24 | +0.44 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.14 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.33 | 12.77 | +0.44 | +1.53 | 0.00 | −1.27 | +0.19 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.40 | 9.83 | +0.43 | +2.25 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.01 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 12.00 | 12.28 | +0.28 | +1.72 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.10 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 13.92 | +0.25 | +1.90 | 0.00 | −1.65 | 0.00 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 11.41 | +0.08 | +0.87 | 0.00 | −1.23 | +0.44 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.25 | 13.32 | +0.07 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −1.14 | +0.22 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.04 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 12.59 | −0.08 | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 14.00 | 13.85 | −0.15 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.03 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 9.15 | −0.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.90 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.43 | 13.24 | −0.19 | +1.25 | 0.00 | −1.56 | +0.12 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.80 | 13.19 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.34 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.33 | 13.70 | −0.63 | +0.96 | 0.00 | −1.61 | +0.02 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 12.60 | 11.73 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | +0.15 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.25 | 13.34 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.13 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.50 | 11.57 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | +0.03 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.38 | 12.45 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.10 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.00 | 15.05 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.10 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 13.48 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.19 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.80 | 8.75 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.08 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 13.14 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.06 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.33 | 8.22 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.03 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.80 | 7.68 | −1.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.03 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.60 | 12.25 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | +0.07 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 14.37 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.22 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.00 | 12.60 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | +0.07 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 8.53 | −1.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | +0.01 |
| Air Power | National Security | 12.00 | 10.30 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.18 |
| Land Power | National Security | 12.00 | 10.29 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.18 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 11.50 | 9.78 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.69 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.67 | 10.90 | −1.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.91 | +0.14 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 7.33 | 5.54 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.14 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.25 | 12.41 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | +0.10 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 10.04 | −1.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.19 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.33 | 4.36 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.12 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.00 | 9.76 | −2.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.10 | −0.15 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.33 | 6.83 | −2.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.60 | +0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.00 | 8.43 | −2.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.12 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.33 | 8.40 | −2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.14 |
Seed 18 of experiment cycle-001.e3-bra-mirror-peer. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.