Round 1 · simulation 11 · cycle-001.e3-est-hold

Round 2027

Round 1 of 20 in simulation 11 of Estonia, hold, 20 years: 0 actions, Core disaster, and the index −0.235 to 11.25.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2027 (the end of 2026) and as it left it.

Capability index: 11.25 (−0.235); In: 11.49
Rank by index: 34; In: 33
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 112; In: 0

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	6.00	5.98	−0.016	7
Strategic Infrastructure	10.86	10.49	−0.374	5
National Security	7.54	7.40	−0.141	6
Human Capital	14.56	14.36	−0.200	3
Information & Influence	10.48	10.34	−0.145	6
Governance & Integrity	15.46	15.29	−0.171	3 → 4
Financial Strength	13.08	12.70	−0.377	9
Production & Innovation	12.81	12.50	−0.314	5
Trade & Investment	12.60	12.22	−0.377	6 → 8

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2027: the credits, the hold method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 347. Maintenance 236. Nothing spent on actions. 112 carried over.

Shock: Core disaster S07. −16.6 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Governance & Integrity Tier 3 to 4; Trade & Investment Tier 6 to 8.

The groups that moved most in 2027, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Events
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	−0.66	−0.66
Financial System Depth & Access	−0.58	−0.58
Industrial & Sectoral Base	−0.56	−0.56
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−0.55	−0.55
Energy Infrastructure	−0.55	−0.55
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	−0.53	−0.53