Simulation 11
Estonia, hold, 20 years, seed 11: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 11.49 at the 2026 position, 9.46 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 11
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 99 (median simulation), 28 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 9.46 (−2.03)
- From 11.49
- Rank by index
- 51
- From 33
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | Core disaster | 11.25 −0.235 |
| 2028 | No actions | 11.25 −0.004 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 11.24 −0.008 | |
| 2030 | No actions | Trade bloc rupture | 11.12 −0.120 |
| 2031 | No actions | 11.00 −0.121 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 10.87 −0.125 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 10.86 −0.011 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 10.85 −0.012 | |
| 2035 | No actions | Regional war spillover | 10.36 −0.491 |
| 2036 | No actions | 10.35 −0.015 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 10.32 −0.021 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 10.31 −0.015 | |
| 2039 | No actions | 10.30 −0.013 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 10.28 −0.013 | |
| 2041 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 9.87 −0.416 |
| 2042 | No actions | Breadbasket failure | 9.54 −0.328 |
| 2043 | No actions | 9.52 −0.020 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 9.50 −0.023 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 9.48 −0.020 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 9.46 −0.018 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Governance & Integrity | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Trade & Investment | 6 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.402 | +100.1 | +0.10 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.626 | +45.3 | +0.05 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.516 | +36.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.443 | +31.5 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.03 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.59 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.07 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 13.00 | 12.18 | −0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.12 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.33 | 13.50 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.15 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 12.67 | 11.78 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | −0.19 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.60 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.25 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 16.50 | 15.60 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.24 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 15.27 | −1.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.06 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 14.92 | −1.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.07 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.25 | 14.14 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.09 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.00 | 12.86 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | −0.28 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.50 | 14.33 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.02 | −0.15 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.67 | 12.48 | −1.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.28 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.00 | 14.77 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.36 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 14.33 | 13.08 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.23 | −0.02 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.50 | 4.24 | −1.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.07 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.67 | 1.32 | −1.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.11 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.25 | 6.88 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.23 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.80 | 9.36 | −1.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.04 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.60 | 3.11 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.21 | −0.28 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 14.67 | 13.08 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.08 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 14.25 | 12.64 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.13 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.67 | 12.06 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.40 | 5.78 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.14 | 3.46 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.09 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 2.50 | 0.81 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.04 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.50 | 9.76 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.01 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.40 | 6.55 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.06 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 12.00 | 10.11 | −1.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.06 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.80 | 2.89 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.08 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 13.33 | 11.41 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.65 | −0.27 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 9.80 | 7.88 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | −0.33 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.40 | 15.47 | −1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.15 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.75 | 11.78 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.73 | −0.24 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.50 | 10.53 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | −0.21 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.20 | 12.22 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.23 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.25 | 11.25 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.23 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 14.50 | 12.50 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.29 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.75 | 12.74 | −2.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.71 | −0.30 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 10.00 | 7.98 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.21 |
| Land Power | National Security | 9.25 | 7.22 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.26 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.50 | 5.47 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.21 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 12.67 | 10.62 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.30 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 8.33 | 6.25 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.94 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.50 | 2.40 | −2.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.19 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 5.67 | 3.46 | −2.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.27 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.00 | 1.73 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.35 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.33 | 9.02 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.17 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 14.00 | 11.65 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.07 | −0.28 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.86 | 12.42 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.17 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 12.00 | 9.56 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.11 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.00 | 11.56 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.26 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.00 | 7.49 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.67 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 12.00 | 9.49 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.19 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.67 | 9.14 | −2.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.20 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.75 | 4.20 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.44 | −0.11 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.50 | 8.95 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | −0.42 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.91 | 11.30 | −2.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.60 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.00 | 7.37 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.15 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.50 | 10.87 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.28 | −0.35 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.67 | 5.99 | −2.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.31 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.80 | 9.09 | −2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.39 | −0.32 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.00 | 3.20 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.46 | −0.34 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.50 | 10.70 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.30 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.00 | 9.17 | −2.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.56 | −0.27 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 10.07 | −2.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.51 | −0.41 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.50 | 8.52 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.56 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.75 | 11.73 | −3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.59 | −0.43 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 8.65 | −3.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.55 | −0.47 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 6.00 | 2.70 | −3.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.16 | −0.15 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.88 | 5.16 | −3.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.57 | −0.15 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.67 | 7.85 | −3.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.17 | −0.64 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.00 | 8.97 | −4.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.43 | −0.60 |
Seed 11 of experiment cycle-001.e3-est-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.