Round 9 · simulation 10 · cycle-001.e3-ken-hold

Round 2035

Round 9 of 20 in simulation 10 of Kenya, hold, 20 years: 0 actions, AI labour shock, and the index −0.141 to 5.59.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0

State in and state out

The simulation as it came into 2035 (the end of 2034) and as it left it.

Capability index: 5.59 (−0.141); In: 5.73
Rank by index: 109; In: 105
Domains at Tier 1: 0; In: 0
Credits carried: 235; In: 201

Each domain's mean score and tier coming in and going out
Domain	In	Out	Change	Tier
Critical Technology	1.96	1.78	−0.176	13
Strategic Infrastructure	5.87	5.79	−0.080	9
National Security	3.45	3.44	−0.012	10
Human Capital	6.63	6.47	−0.158	14
Information & Influence	6.34	6.16	−0.177	11 → 12
Governance & Integrity	7.85	7.73	−0.115	16
Financial Strength	6.93	6.76	−0.177	22
Production & Innovation	6.12	5.94	−0.176	17
Trade & Investment	6.42	6.22	−0.201	14 → 15

Decision, shocks and propagation

What happened in 2035: the credits, the hold method's decision and its actions, any shocks and upside events, the tier changes, and the groups that moved most, split into what was invested, lost to decay, struck by events and carried through the dependency graph.

Credits. Income 112, plus 201 carried in. Maintenance 78. Nothing spent on actions. 235 carried over.

Shock: AI labour shock S08. −26.4 points across the groups it bears on, after exposure, absorption and vulnerability, spread over its duration.

Tiers. Information & Influence Tier 11 to 12; Trade & Investment Tier 14 to 15.

The groups that moved most in 2035, and what moved them
Moved most	Change	Events	Graph
Digital & Services Trade	−0.35	−0.33	−0.02
Artificial Intelligence	−0.32	−0.30	−0.02
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	−0.30	−0.29	−0.01
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	−0.30	−0.29	−0.01
Labour & Employment	−0.30	−0.28	−0.01
Advanced Education	−0.21	−0.19	−0.02