Simulation 10
Kenya, hold, 20 years, seed 10: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 7.18 at the 2026 position, 4.68 in 2046; 0 actions over 20 rounds and 4 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 10
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 46 (median simulation), 50 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2046.
- Capability index
- 4.68 (−2.50)
- From 7.18
- Rank by index
- 126
- From 79
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 4 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the hold method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | No actions | Breadbasket failure | 6.12 −1.055 |
| 2028 | No actions | 6.11 −0.016 | |
| 2029 | No actions | 6.08 −0.030 | |
| 2030 | No actions | Hybrid coercion | 5.81 −0.263 |
| 2031 | No actions | 5.79 −0.026 | |
| 2032 | No actions | 5.76 −0.029 | |
| 2033 | No actions | 5.74 −0.016 | |
| 2034 | No actions | 5.73 −0.014 | |
| 2035 | No actions | AI labour shock | 5.59 −0.141 |
| 2036 | No actions | 5.45 −0.136 | |
| 2037 | No actions | 5.31 −0.138 | |
| 2038 | No actions | 5.30 −0.011 | |
| 2039 | No actions | 5.29 −0.011 | |
| 2040 | No actions | 5.28 −0.010 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 5.27 −0.008 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 5.27 −0.007 | |
| 2043 | No actions | AI labour shock | 5.08 −0.190 |
| 2044 | No actions | 4.89 −0.189 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 4.69 −0.194 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 4.68 −0.014 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| National Security | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Human Capital | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| Information & Influence | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Governance & Integrity | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Financial Strength | 17 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| Production & Innovation | 14 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
| Trade & Investment | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.473 | +103.6 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.759 | +53.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.543 | +38.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.490 | +33.8 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2046 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.99 | −0.06 |
| Air Power | National Security | 4.75 | 3.53 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.22 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 6.33 | 5.09 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.27 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.25 | 0.00 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.08 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 2.33 | 1.05 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.24 |
| Land Power | National Security | 7.25 | 5.95 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.96 | −0.34 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 2.33 | 1.02 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.28 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 1.33 | 0.00 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.98 | −0.06 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 8.00 | 6.63 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.95 | −0.42 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.67 | 8.26 | −1.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.10 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.00 | 7.57 | −1.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.09 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 6.83 | 5.35 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.14 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 3.50 | 1.99 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.10 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.48 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.16 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 4.67 | 3.10 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.39 | −0.18 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 7.00 | 5.42 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.10 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 1.60 | 0.00 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.97 | −0.13 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 7.33 | 5.49 | −1.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.36 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.12 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.33 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 8.75 | 6.85 | −1.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | −0.46 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 8.33 | 6.42 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.45 | −0.46 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.20 | 3.23 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.11 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 9.02 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.15 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 8.00 | 6.02 | −1.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 2.43 | 0.40 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.95 | −0.09 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 3.25 | 1.13 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.20 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.00 | 3.88 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.23 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.00 | 1.87 | −2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.09 | −0.05 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.25 | 6.98 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.46 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 9.40 | 7.13 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 7.67 | 5.38 | −2.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.14 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.00 | 8.68 | −2.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.55 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 7.00 | 4.67 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.21 | −0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.29 | 7.94 | −2.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.24 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 4.67 | 2.29 | −2.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.92 | −0.46 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 9.25 | 6.86 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.19 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 8.00 | 5.60 | −2.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.25 | −0.16 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 4.58 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.55 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 7.67 | 5.25 | −2.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.23 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 7.50 | 5.07 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.20 | −0.23 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 7.00 | 4.52 | −2.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.25 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 8.00 | 5.49 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.29 | −0.22 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 9.50 | 6.98 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.03 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 9.00 | 6.45 | −2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.26 | −0.29 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 6.00 | 3.42 | −2.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.32 | −0.27 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.09 | 5.46 | −2.63 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | −0.78 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.60 | 0.96 | −2.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.50 | −0.14 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 4.85 | −2.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.35 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 6.50 | 3.84 | −2.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.33 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 7.75 | 4.97 | −2.78 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.49 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 8.50 | 5.71 | −2.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | −0.60 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 7.60 | 4.79 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.54 | −0.26 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 7.50 | 4.69 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.30 | −0.51 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 9.80 | 6.93 | −2.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.62 | −0.25 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 4.50 | 1.55 | −2.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.64 | −0.31 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 7.67 | 4.69 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.76 | −0.22 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 9.75 | 6.77 | −2.98 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.69 | −0.29 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.00 | 5.91 | −3.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.85 | −0.24 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 8.67 | 5.55 | −3.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.73 | −0.40 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 6.33 | 3.16 | −3.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.37 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 6.67 | 3.44 | −3.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.79 | −0.44 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.00 | 3.71 | −3.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.90 | −0.39 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.25 | 4.77 | −3.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.86 | −0.62 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.33 | 1.84 | −3.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | −0.51 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 7.25 | 3.72 | −3.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.22 | −0.31 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 6.32 | −3.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.28 | −0.40 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 6.75 | 3.06 | −3.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.38 | −0.31 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 11.00 | 7.06 | −3.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.51 | −0.43 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 7.67 | 3.56 | −4.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.97 | −0.14 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.28 | −4.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.93 | −0.29 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 5.20 | −4.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.96 | −0.34 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 8.75 | 3.85 | −4.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.44 | −0.46 |
Seed 10 of experiment cycle-001.e3-ken-hold. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.