Simulation 19
South Korea, greedy, 30 years, seed 19: median simulation of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 18.08 in 2056; 70 actions over 30 rounds and 1 shock.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 19
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 55 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 37 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 2026 position to 2056.
- Capability index
- 18.08 (+2.08)
- From 16.00
- Rank by index
- 1
- From 6
- Domains at Tier 1
- 7
- From 2
- Events
- 1 shock
- 3 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 |
| 16.05 +0.052 | |
| 2028 |
| 16.11 +0.059 | |
| 2029 |
| 16.25 +0.136 | |
| 2030 |
| 16.44 +0.194 | |
| 2031 |
| 16.58 +0.141 | |
| 2032 |
| 16.74 +0.159 | |
| 2033 |
| Market access opening | 16.97 +0.226 |
| 2034 |
| 17.13 +0.157 | |
| 2035 |
| 17.35 +0.223 | |
| 2036 |
| 17.54 +0.187 | |
| 2037 |
| 17.71 +0.176 | |
| 2038 |
| 17.90 +0.191 | |
| 2039 |
| Automated discovery step | 18.17 +0.262 |
| 2040 | No actions | 18.37 +0.204 | |
| 2041 | No actions | 18.48 +0.113 | |
| 2042 | No actions | 18.41 −0.077 | |
| 2043 | No actions | 18.35 −0.059 | |
| 2044 | No actions | 18.30 −0.049 | |
| 2045 | No actions | 18.26 −0.042 | |
| 2046 | No actions | 18.22 −0.035 | |
| 2047 | No actions | Trade bloc ruptureMarket access opening | 18.16 −0.060 |
| 2048 | No actions | 18.06 −0.102 | |
| 2049 | No actions | 17.98 −0.085 | |
| 2050 |
| 17.98 +0.008 | |
| 2051 |
| 18.00 +0.012 | |
| 2052 |
| 18.02 +0.026 | |
| 2053 |
| 18.03 +0.009 | |
| 2054 |
| 18.05 +0.018 | |
| 2055 |
| 18.07 +0.018 | |
| 2056 |
| 18.08 +0.012 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 2026 | 2031 | 2036 | 2041 | 2046 | 2051 | 2056 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Governance & Integrity | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −2.950 | −202.9 | −5.65 |
| No shocks | +0.157 | +11.3 | −0.05 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.010 | −0.7 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.003 | −0.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.013 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | −0.035 | −1.4 | −0.10 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.035 | +2.2 | −0.12 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | −0.006 | −0.7 | −0.14 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 2026 | 2056 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.75 | 19.28 | +7.53 | +6.80 | −0.52 | +0.89 | +0.35 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 20.00 | +5.00 | +3.83 | −0.21 | +0.88 | +0.95 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 15.33 | 20.00 | +4.67 | +5.67 | −0.21 | +0.89 | +0.33 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 15.00 | 19.65 | +4.65 | +3.71 | −0.21 | +0.88 | +0.27 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 19.08 | +4.58 | +4.74 | −0.80 | +0.18 | +0.46 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.50 | 20.00 | +4.50 | +9.57 | −0.33 | +1.49 | +0.27 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.50 | 18.66 | +4.16 | +4.80 | −0.78 | −0.19 | +0.32 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +4.14 | −0.24 | +0.93 | +0.42 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 16.00 | 20.00 | +4.00 | +3.70 | −0.21 | +0.88 | +0.55 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.98 | +3.98 | +8.59 | −0.34 | +0.94 | +0.12 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 16.00 | 19.91 | +3.91 | +4.12 | −0.39 | +1.40 | +0.77 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 15.75 | 19.61 | +3.86 | +4.09 | −0.46 | +0.22 | +0.32 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 16.33 | 20.00 | +3.67 | +3.53 | −0.21 | +1.77 | +0.08 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 16.33 | 19.53 | +3.20 | +2.44 | −0.75 | +1.18 | +0.33 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 16.25 | 19.45 | +3.20 | +2.55 | −0.75 | +1.18 | +0.21 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 16.00 | 19.13 | +3.13 | +3.40 | −0.78 | +0.17 | +0.67 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.00 | 18.11 | +3.11 | +2.53 | −0.66 | +0.73 | +0.52 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.50 | 19.60 | +3.10 | +2.44 | −0.51 | +0.17 | +0.99 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 19.58 | +3.08 | +3.41 | −0.71 | +0.74 | +0.41 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 19.50 | +3.00 | +2.28 | −0.54 | +0.88 | +0.37 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +3.57 | −0.35 | +0.93 | +0.47 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 17.00 | 20.00 | +3.00 | +4.85 | −0.34 | +0.94 | +0.47 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 17.00 | 19.98 | +2.98 | +1.93 | −0.35 | +0.93 | +0.48 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 17.20 | 20.00 | +2.80 | +1.45 | −0.21 | +1.42 | +0.55 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 15.33 | 18.13 | +2.80 | +2.70 | −0.72 | +0.23 | +0.60 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 16.00 | 18.79 | +2.79 | +2.88 | −1.30 | +0.88 | +0.53 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 15.75 | 18.54 | +2.79 | +2.31 | −0.68 | +0.73 | +0.43 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 17.25 | 20.00 | +2.75 | +1.75 | −0.35 | +0.93 | +0.53 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 16.67 | 19.34 | +2.67 | +1.61 | −0.34 | +0.93 | +0.47 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 15.67 | 18.18 | +2.51 | +2.68 | −0.73 | +0.17 | +0.40 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 14.20 | 16.68 | +2.48 | +2.46 | −0.48 | +0.15 | +0.36 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.33 | 18.65 | +2.32 | +1.54 | −0.54 | +0.87 | +0.45 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.67 | 18.80 | +2.13 | +1.93 | −0.70 | +0.72 | +0.18 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.11 | +2.11 | +2.84 | −0.75 | +0.79 | +0.87 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 16.50 | 18.58 | +2.08 | +2.03 | −0.69 | +0.43 | +0.31 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 18.61 | +2.01 | +2.58 | −1.27 | +0.41 | +0.29 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 17.00 | 19.00 | +2.00 | +2.19 | −0.75 | +0.24 | +0.39 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 16.80 | 18.78 | +1.98 | +2.05 | −0.72 | +0.21 | +0.45 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 15.80 | 17.44 | +1.64 | +1.90 | −1.00 | +0.43 | +0.31 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.33 | 18.90 | +1.57 | +1.84 | −0.74 | +0.25 | +0.26 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 19.55 | +1.55 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +1.19 | +1.17 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.50 | 17.98 | +1.48 | 0.00 | −0.50 | +1.42 | +0.55 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.00 | 18.32 | +1.32 | 0.00 | −0.51 | +0.87 | +0.95 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.13 | 17.35 | +1.22 | 0.00 | −0.48 | +1.42 | +0.27 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 15.67 | 16.84 | +1.17 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.86 | +0.49 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.40 | 19.50 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.54 | +0.88 | +0.77 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 16.20 | 17.30 | +1.10 | 0.00 | −0.19 | +0.86 | +0.43 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 17.50 | 18.57 | +1.07 | 0.00 | −0.69 | +1.20 | +0.57 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 15.50 | 16.51 | +1.01 | +1.35 | −0.60 | +0.18 | +0.08 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.67 | 15.67 | +1.00 | +1.16 | −0.94 | +0.42 | +0.36 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.20 | 17.15 | +0.95 | +0.93 | −1.06 | +0.59 | +0.50 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 16.60 | 17.48 | +0.88 | +0.91 | −1.07 | +0.43 | +0.60 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.80 | 17.60 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.87 | +0.42 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.00 | 18.72 | +0.72 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +1.35 | +0.19 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 16.35 | +0.60 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.87 | +0.19 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 18.00 | 18.57 | +0.57 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.71 | +0.56 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.33 | 16.82 | +0.49 | +0.79 | −0.40 | −0.15 | +0.26 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.25 | 14.64 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.95 | +0.42 | +0.91 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 16.50 | 16.87 | +0.37 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.91 | +0.56 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.67 | 1.91 | +0.24 | 0.00 | −0.02 | +0.26 | 0.00 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.71 | 16.94 | +0.23 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.59 | +0.75 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 16.67 | 16.82 | +0.15 | 0.00 | −0.41 | +0.18 | +0.38 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 17.00 | 17.08 | +0.08 | 0.00 | −0.42 | +0.18 | +0.31 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 13.67 | 13.65 | −0.02 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.30 | +0.39 |
| Air Power | National Security | 16.75 | 16.64 | −0.11 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.31 | +0.45 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 16.33 | 16.14 | −0.19 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.31 | +0.35 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 16.00 | 15.80 | −0.20 | 0.00 | −0.83 | +0.30 | +0.32 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 16.00 | 15.73 | −0.27 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.30 | +0.25 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 17.50 | 17.20 | −0.30 | 0.00 | −1.13 | +0.60 | +0.23 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 16.00 | 15.69 | −0.31 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.30 | +0.20 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.50 | 16.18 | −0.32 | 0.00 | −0.84 | +0.31 | +0.21 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.83 | 15.50 | −0.33 | 0.00 | −0.81 | +0.30 | +0.18 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 15.33 | 14.98 | −0.35 | 0.00 | −0.78 | +0.30 | +0.14 |
Seed 19 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.