A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal-30y

Simulation 55

South Korea, greedy, 30 years, seed 55: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 100. Capability index 16.00 at the 2026 position, 17.77 in 2056; 79 actions over 30 rounds and 4 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 55

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 19 (median simulation), 37 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 2026 position to 2056.

Capability index: 17.77 (+1.76); From 16.00
Rank by index: 2; From 6
Domains at Tier 1: 7; From 2
Events: 4 shocks; 2 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the greedy method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
2027	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44 Build Digital & AI Competence 44 Buy Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Build Advanced Education 44		16.05 +0.052
2028	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44 Build Digital & AI Competence 44 Build Advanced Education 44 Build Foundational Education 44		16.11 +0.059
2029	Build Technical & Vocational Skills 44 Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 44 Partner Trade Policy & Market Access 44 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 44 Build Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 44		16.25 +0.136
2030	Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 44 Buy Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 44 Partner Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 44 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 44 Build Economic Output & Productivity 44	Clean power threshold	16.51 +0.261
2031	Partner Investment Attraction & Projection 45 Build Economic Output & Productivity 45 Partner Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 45 Partner Economic Leverage & Dependence 45 Build Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 45		16.71 +0.205
2032	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 50 Build Early Childhood Development 50 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 50 Build Population Health 50 Partner Digital & Services Trade 50		16.94 +0.227
2033	Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 52 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 52 Build Population Health 52 Build Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 52 Buy Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 52		17.16 +0.224
2034	Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 54 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 54 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 54 Build Financial Infrastructure 54 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 54		17.34 +0.179
2035	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 55 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 55 Buy Artificial Intelligence 55 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 55 Build Labour & Employment 55		17.51 +0.169
2036	Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 52 Buy Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 52 Build Health System Capability 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52 Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 52		17.67 +0.156
2037	Build Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy 52 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 52 Build Resource Infrastructure 52 Partner Global Value Chain Position 52 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 52		17.83 +0.161
2038	Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 52 Build Development Cooperation & Global Assistance 52 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 52 Build Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure 21 Build Internal Security & Order 10		17.96 +0.129
2039	Build Internal Security & Order 21 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 10		18.07 +0.106
2040	No actions		18.14 +0.074
2041	No actions		18.16 +0.018
2042	No actions		18.16 +0.003
2043	No actions	AI labour shock	18.11 −0.054
2044	No actions	Clean power threshold	18.07 −0.039
2045	No actions		18.07 +0.004
2046	Build Structural Transformation & Complexity 49 Build Diaspora & Global Communities 20 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10		18.17 +0.097
2047	Build Monetary & Currency Capability 55		18.28 +0.107
2048	Build Diaspora & Global Communities 11		18.39 +0.108
2049	No actions		18.36 −0.030
2050	No actions	Hybrid coercion	18.16 −0.192
2051	No actions	AI labour shock	18.08 −0.088
2052	No actions		17.94 −0.141
2053	No actions		17.82 −0.117
2054	Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 45 Buy Sensing, Timing & Navigation 45 Partner Space Technologies 18 Partner Trade Facilitation & Logistics 18	Hybrid coercion	17.59 −0.232
2055	Partner Alliances & Security Cooperation 51 Buy Communications & Digital Infrastructure 51 Buy Artificial Intelligence 51 Partner Information Environment & Strategic Communication 20 Partner Space Technologies 20		17.67 +0.080
2056	Buy Biotechnology & Health Technologies 51 Buy Robotics & Autonomous Systems 51 Buy Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 51		17.77 +0.100

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	2026					2031					2036					2041					2046					2051					2056
Critical Technology	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Strategic Infrastructure	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
National Security	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Human Capital	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Information & Influence	3	3	3	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Governance & Integrity	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Financial Strength	5	5	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Production & Innovation	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Trade & Investment	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 20 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1
Hold instead of the method	−2.950	−202.9	−5.65
No shocks	+0.157	+11.3	−0.05
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.012	−0.8	0.00
Without the 2nd largest decision	−0.010	−0.7	0.00
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.003	−0.2	0.00
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.013	−0.9	0.00
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.015	−1.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest shock	−0.035	−1.4	−0.10
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.035	+2.2	−0.12
Without the 3rd largest shock	−0.006	−0.7	−0.14

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	2026	2056	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.75	17.10	+5.35	+4.50	−0.24	+0.93	+0.17
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.57	+4.57	+5.93	−0.11	+0.38	+0.75
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	15.00	19.49	+4.49	+3.92	−0.10	+0.35	+0.34
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	15.50	19.78	+4.28	+9.57	−0.17	+0.57	+0.29
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	15.33	19.54	+4.21	+5.75	−0.11	+0.38	+0.25
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	16.00	20.00	+4.00	+5.69	−0.39	−1.45	+0.39
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	14.50	18.43	+3.93	+4.65	−0.40	−0.77	+0.44
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.50	18.40	+3.90	+4.80	−0.39	−0.82	+0.31
Population Health	Human Capital	16.00	19.78	+3.78	+4.21	−0.12	+0.13	+0.42
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	16.00	19.72	+3.72	+4.10	−0.20	+0.10	+0.74
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	16.00	19.70	+3.70	+4.56	−0.64	−0.57	+0.36
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	16.00	19.57	+3.57	+8.59	−0.17	−0.13	+0.15
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	16.00	19.40	+3.40	+5.25	−0.11	+0.17	+0.23
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	15.67	19.04	+3.37	+5.38	−0.36	−2.00	+0.35
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	14.20	17.19	+2.99	+2.57	−0.25	+0.26	+0.40
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	16.50	19.23	+2.73	+3.38	−0.36	+0.10	+0.36
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	16.33	18.95	+2.62	+1.78	−0.10	+0.92	+0.03
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	15.33	17.93	+2.60	+2.69	−0.36	−0.18	+0.46
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.50	19.06	+2.56	+2.44	−0.25	−0.23	+0.60
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.00	19.55	+2.55	+3.57	−0.17	−0.17	+0.36
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.33	18.87	+2.54	+2.24	−0.21	+0.35	+0.16
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	17.00	19.53	+2.53	+4.85	−0.17	−0.15	+0.26
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	19.02	+2.52	+2.28	−0.27	+0.06	+0.44
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	15.75	18.18	+2.43	+2.03	−0.22	+0.36	+0.26
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	16.50	18.91	+2.41	+1.74	−0.35	+0.92	+0.11
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	15.75	18.13	+2.38	+2.27	−0.34	+0.08	+0.36
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	16.33	18.68	+2.35	+2.40	−0.37	−0.17	+0.48
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	17.00	19.30	+2.30	+2.00	−0.17	+0.11	+0.36
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	15.00	17.29	+2.29	+2.60	−0.33	−0.39	+0.41
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	16.20	18.38	+2.18	+2.19	−0.53	+0.03	+0.49
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.71	18.71	+2.00	+1.98	−0.54	+0.03	+0.53
Foundational Education	Human Capital	17.25	19.25	+2.00	+1.75	−0.17	+0.11	+0.31
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	17.00	19.00	+2.00	+2.22	−0.38	−0.16	+0.31
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	16.50	18.47	+1.97	+2.12	−0.54	+0.03	+0.35
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	17.00	18.97	+1.97	+2.84	−0.38	−0.16	+0.68
Health System Capability	Human Capital	16.67	18.59	+1.92	+1.72	−0.17	+0.11	+0.26
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	17.20	19.03	+1.83	+1.26	−0.11	+0.61	+0.71
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.67	18.43	+1.76	+1.82	−0.33	+0.06	+0.22
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	15.80	17.54	+1.74	+2.06	−0.51	+0.02	+0.17
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	16.25	17.90	+1.65	+2.62	−0.36	−0.80	+0.19
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	18.21	+1.61	+2.41	−0.63	−0.34	+0.17
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	15.67	17.27	+1.60	+1.30	−0.10	−0.02	+0.41
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.33	18.79	+1.46	+1.79	−0.37	−0.15	+0.19
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	16.80	18.21	+1.41	+2.08	−0.36	−0.66	+0.35
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	17.00	18.31	+1.31	0.00	−0.22	+1.17	+0.36
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	14.67	15.91	+1.24	+1.44	−0.47	0.00	+0.27
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.00	18.99	+0.99	+1.79	−0.40	−0.57	+0.18
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.93	+0.93	0.00	−0.36	+0.88	+0.40
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	17.50	18.40	+0.90	+1.12	−0.34	−0.14	+0.26
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.33	17.18	+0.85	+0.66	−0.25	+0.02	+0.42
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	16.60	17.32	+0.72	0.00	−0.56	+0.88	+0.39
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	18.00	18.55	+0.55	0.00	−0.35	+0.04	+0.87
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.00	17.50	+0.50	0.00	−0.25	+0.01	+0.75
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	15.50	15.89	+0.39	+1.35	−0.31	−0.72	+0.07
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	18.40	18.67	+0.27	0.00	−0.27	+0.02	+0.52
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.13	16.39	+0.26	0.00	−0.24	+0.24	+0.27
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.80	17.04	+0.24	0.00	−0.25	+0.01	+0.48
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	16.67	16.90	+0.23	0.00	−0.21	+0.32	+0.11
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	16.20	16.32	+0.12	0.00	−0.09	−0.07	+0.29
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.50	16.59	+0.09	0.00	−0.24	0.00	+0.33
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	14.25	14.22	−0.03	0.00	−0.47	0.00	+0.44
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	15.68	−0.07	0.00	−0.23	−0.01	+0.16
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	17.50	17.29	−0.21	0.00	−0.56	+0.04	+0.31
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	16.33	15.58	−0.75	0.00	−0.42	−0.66	+0.33
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.67	0.83	−0.84	0.00	−0.01	−0.83	0.00
Space Operations	National Security	13.67	12.79	−0.88	0.00	−0.34	−0.69	+0.16
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	15.33	14.43	−0.90	0.00	−0.39	−0.68	+0.16
Air Power	National Security	16.75	15.85	−0.90	0.00	−0.42	−0.66	+0.18
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	16.00	15.04	−0.96	0.00	−0.40	−0.67	+0.11
Land Power	National Security	16.50	15.48	−1.02	0.00	−0.41	−0.66	+0.05
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	16.00	14.56	−1.44	0.00	−0.41	−1.34	+0.30
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.83	14.25	−1.58	0.00	−0.40	−1.34	+0.16
Maritime Power	National Security	16.00	14.34	−1.66	0.00	−0.40	−1.34	+0.07

Seed 55 of experiment cycle-001.e3-kor-greedy-marginal-30y. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.