Simulation 20
Argentina, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 20: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.76 at the 1996 position, 9.35 in 2026; 155 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 20
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 8 (median simulation), 30 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.35 (−1.41)
- From 10.76
- Rank by index
- 55
- From 39
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 2 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.77 +0.012 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.40 −0.371 |
| 1999 |
| 10.42 +0.017 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.43 +0.016 | |
| 2001 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.90 −0.530 |
| 2002 |
| 9.93 +0.027 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.95 +0.020 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.97 +0.022 | |
| 2005 |
| Debt service reset | 10.01 +0.031 |
| 2006 |
| 10.03 +0.029 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.07 +0.034 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.95 −0.117 |
| 2009 |
| 9.99 +0.045 | |
| 2010 |
| 10.03 +0.034 | |
| 2011 |
| 10.07 +0.038 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.11 +0.042 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.15 +0.041 | |
| 2014 |
| 10.19 +0.041 | |
| 2015 |
| 10.24 +0.050 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.29 +0.052 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.34 +0.047 | |
| 2018 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.02 −0.318 |
| 2019 |
| 10.05 +0.027 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemicDebt service reset | 9.54 −0.513 |
| 2021 |
| 9.56 +0.021 | |
| 2022 |
| Breadbasket failure | 9.24 −0.315 |
| 2023 |
| 9.26 +0.017 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.29 +0.028 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.31 +0.026 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.35 +0.040 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| National Security | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Governance & Integrity | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Financial Strength | 12 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Production & Innovation | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.326 | −94.2 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +2.784 | +192.0 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.007 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.008 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.012 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.779 | +54.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.625 | +43.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.637 | +43.2 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 13.21 | 18.83 | +5.62 | +5.83 | 0.00 | −0.86 | +0.64 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 14.31 | 19.48 | +5.17 | +6.14 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.12 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.41 | 16.33 | +4.92 | +6.38 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.21 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.90 | 15.38 | +3.48 | +5.45 | 0.00 | −2.06 | +0.10 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.35 | 11.90 | +2.55 | +4.00 | 0.00 | −1.52 | +0.07 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.33 | 14.73 | +1.40 | +4.58 | 0.00 | −2.82 | −0.37 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 11.00 | 12.17 | +1.17 | +2.92 | 0.00 | −1.46 | −0.28 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 11.84 | 12.18 | +0.34 | +1.98 | 0.00 | −1.54 | −0.09 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.47 | −0.02 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.42 | 8.40 | −0.02 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −2.67 | −0.23 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.68 | 12.59 | −0.09 | +2.16 | 0.00 | −1.78 | −0.47 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 10.45 | 10.23 | −0.22 | +1.24 | 0.00 | −1.51 | +0.05 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.19 | 11.84 | −0.35 | +1.26 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.32 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 9.86 | 9.32 | −0.54 | +0.81 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.02 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.51 | 12.93 | −0.58 | +0.97 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.28 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.32 | 9.63 | −0.69 | +4.98 | 0.00 | −4.98 | −0.69 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.95 | 12.07 | −0.88 | +0.84 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.15 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 11.17 | 10.28 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.16 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 11.39 | 10.44 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.11 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.96 | 9.78 | −1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | +0.12 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 10.43 | 9.22 | −1.21 | +1.46 | 0.00 | −2.36 | −0.31 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 10.77 | 9.55 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.15 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 7.49 | 6.24 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | +0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 5.78 | 4.50 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.07 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 8.75 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | +0.50 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 13.83 | 12.52 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.14 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.73 | 8.42 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.17 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.37 | 8.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.05 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 10.12 | 8.74 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.12 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.13 | 4.75 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.84 | +0.45 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 8.63 | 7.25 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.40 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 7.33 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.09 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 8.72 | 7.34 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 8.57 | 7.12 | −1.45 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.29 | −0.16 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.63 | 11.15 | −1.48 | +1.15 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.80 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.09 | 7.58 | −1.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.22 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.19 | 8.67 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.21 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 13.65 | 12.11 | −1.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | −0.31 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.40 | 8.84 | −1.56 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.30 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 6.88 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | +0.19 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 11.32 | −1.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.12 | +0.49 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.29 | 10.65 | −1.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.37 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 9.85 | 8.17 | −1.68 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | +0.04 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.98 | 10.30 | −1.68 | +0.80 | 0.00 | −2.54 | +0.05 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 13.70 | 12.00 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.18 | +0.48 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.43 | 13.58 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.53 | −0.32 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.73 | 11.88 | −1.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.61 | −0.23 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.16 | 9.30 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | −0.23 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 2.32 | −1.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.89 | +0.02 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.13 | 9.16 | −1.97 | +2.09 | 0.00 | −3.67 | −0.40 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 7.25 | −2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | −0.25 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 8.46 | 6.44 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.77 | −0.25 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 10.79 | 8.75 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.31 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 12.29 | 10.23 | −2.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | +0.07 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 10.61 | 8.54 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.19 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 8.90 | −2.08 | +1.80 | 0.00 | −3.79 | −0.09 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 10.50 | 8.34 | −2.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.01 | −0.15 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 7.61 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.37 | +0.04 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 9.62 | −2.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.18 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 11.23 | 8.72 | −2.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.33 | −0.18 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 8.61 | 6.09 | −2.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.28 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.48 | 9.77 | −2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.49 | −0.23 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 13.20 | 10.35 | −2.85 | +2.19 | 0.00 | −4.91 | −0.12 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.64 | 7.72 | −2.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.07 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.93 | 6.87 | −3.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.19 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 7.66 | −3.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.22 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.89 | 6.75 | −3.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.87 | −0.27 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 11.92 | 8.37 | −3.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.45 | −0.10 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 7.59 | −3.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.50 | −0.17 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 11.53 | 7.48 | −4.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.92 | −0.13 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 6.92 | −4.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.94 | −0.10 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.92 | 5.49 | −4.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.14 | −0.29 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 11.92 | 6.99 | −4.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −4.59 | −0.34 |
Seed 20 of experiment cycle-002.e4-arg. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.