A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-bgd

Simulation 2

Bangladesh, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 6.47 at the 1996 position, 4.16 in 2026; 102 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 20 (median simulation), 18 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 4.16 (−2.31); From 6.47
Rank by index: 136; From 90
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2		6.47 +0.007
1998	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Population Health 6 Build Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 2	Core disaster	6.06 −0.419
1999	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Population Health 2		6.06 +0.007
2000	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 6 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 6 Build Foundational Education 6 Build Population Health 4		6.07 +0.004
2001	Build Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 5 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 5 Build Foundational Education 5 Build Population Health 4		6.08 +0.007
2002	Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.08 +0.006
2003	Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.08 +0.005
2004	Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.09 +0.009
2005	Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.10 +0.008
2006	Partner Transport Infrastructure 2 Partner Energy Infrastructure 2 Partner Industrial & Sectoral Base 2 Partner Export Capability & Sophistication 2		6.11 +0.007
2007	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Foundational Education 5	Legitimacy rupture	5.70 −0.413
2008	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Foundational Education 5	Breadbasket failure	5.43 −0.264
2009	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Foundational Education 5		5.43 −0.002
2010	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 5 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 5 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 Build Energy Infrastructure 5 Build Foundational Education 5		5.43 0.000
2011	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4 Build Export Capability & Sophistication 3		5.43 +0.003
2012	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.44 +0.002
2013	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.44 +0.005
2014	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.45 +0.007
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.46 +0.006
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.46 +0.007
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 4		5.47 +0.007
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Industrial & Sectoral Base 3		5.48 +0.009
2019	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 3		5.49 +0.010
2020	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 3	Severe pandemic	5.02 −0.464
2021	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4		5.02 0.000
2022	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 4 Build Health System Capability 0	Breadbasket failure	4.80 −0.226
2023	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 2		4.79 −0.008
2024	Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 4 Build Energy Infrastructure 2	Legitimacy rupture	4.20 −0.587
2025	No actions		4.18 −0.020
2026	No actions		4.16 −0.021

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	14	14	14	14	15	15	15
Strategic Infrastructure	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	11	10	10
National Security	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	12	12	12
Human Capital	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Information & Influence	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	16	16	16
Governance & Integrity	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18
Financial Strength	20	20	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	22	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	23	24	24	25	25	30	30	30
Production & Innovation	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	17	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	18	18	18
Trade & Investment	13	13	13	13	12	12	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	12	12	13	13	13

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.416	−31.7
No shocks	+2.800	+197.2
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.002	+0.2
Without the 2nd largest decision	0.000	+0.1
Without the 3rd largest decision	−0.002	−0.1
Without the 4th largest decision	−0.002	−0.1
Without the 5th largest decision	+0.002	+0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.600	+41.5
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.537	+37.5
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.631	+44.7

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Foundational Education	Human Capital	7.74	9.17	+1.43	+3.34	0.00	−1.57	−0.34
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.99	6.27	+1.28	+4.33	−0.01	−2.69	−0.35
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.19	7.83	+0.64	+3.33	−0.01	−2.35	−0.33
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.62	9.09	+0.47	+2.36	−0.01	−1.70	−0.17
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−2.44	−0.03
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	7.99	7.95	−0.04	+2.57	−0.01	−2.52	−0.08
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.40	6.89	−0.51	+1.17	0.00	−1.46	−0.21
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.04	6.50	−0.54	+2.33	−0.01	−2.23	−0.64
Population Health	Human Capital	7.08	6.03	−1.05	+1.32	0.00	−2.02	−0.36
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	1.06	0.00	−1.06	0.00	0.00	−1.54	−0.03
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	1.30	0.00	−1.30	0.00	0.00	−1.54	−0.16
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	1.32	0.00	−1.32	0.00	0.00	−1.54	−0.09
Advanced Education	Human Capital	7.64	6.31	−1.33	0.00	0.00	−1.46	+0.13
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	7.19	5.85	−1.34	0.00	0.00	−1.47	+0.13
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	6.45	5.07	−1.38	0.00	0.00	−1.49	+0.10
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.10	6.68	−1.42	+1.23	−0.01	−2.14	−0.51
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	3.48	1.98	−1.50	0.00	0.00	−1.49	−0.01
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	6.40	4.86	−1.54	0.00	0.00	−1.49	−0.05
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	7.20	5.65	−1.55	0.00	0.00	−1.54	−0.01
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	2.25	0.67	−1.58	0.00	0.00	−1.52	−0.06
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	1.62	0.00	−1.62	0.00	0.00	−2.09	−0.05
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	2.55	0.91	−1.64	0.00	0.00	−1.51	−0.13
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	3.05	1.40	−1.65	0.00	0.00	−1.50	−0.15
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	6.54	4.82	−1.72	0.00	0.00	−1.49	−0.23
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	4.93	3.14	−1.79	0.00	−0.01	−1.46	−0.32
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	7.39	5.40	−1.99	0.00	0.00	−1.79	−0.20
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	8.41	6.37	−2.04	0.00	0.00	−1.78	−0.26
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	9.40	7.36	−2.04	+1.04	0.00	−2.83	−0.25
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	4.54	2.47	−2.07	0.00	0.00	−1.85	−0.22
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	7.34	5.21	−2.13	0.00	−0.01	−2.13	+0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	7.12	−2.15	0.00	−0.01	−1.75	−0.40
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	3.05	−2.15	0.00	−0.01	−1.97	−0.17
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	6.91	4.66	−2.25	0.00	−0.01	−2.13	−0.11
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.78	4.52	−2.26	0.00	0.00	−2.26	+0.01
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	3.80	1.52	−2.28	0.00	0.00	−1.87	−0.41
Health System Capability	Human Capital	7.82	5.53	−2.29	+0.34	0.00	−2.13	−0.50
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	4.69	−2.33	0.00	0.00	−2.25	−0.08
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	5.70	3.37	−2.33	0.00	−0.01	−2.24	−0.08
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	6.71	4.38	−2.33	0.00	−0.01	−2.14	−0.18
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	7.33	4.98	−2.35	0.00	0.00	−2.24	−0.11
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	6.14	3.77	−2.37	0.00	−0.01	−2.23	−0.14
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	5.75	3.38	−2.37	0.00	−0.01	−2.24	−0.12
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	7.24	4.82	−2.42	0.00	−0.01	−2.13	−0.30
Maritime Power	National Security	3.72	1.27	−2.45	0.00	0.00	−2.31	−0.14
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	5.75	3.30	−2.45	0.00	0.00	−2.16	−0.28
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.22	6.73	−2.49	0.00	0.00	−2.00	−0.48
Land Power	National Security	6.12	3.57	−2.55	0.00	−0.01	−2.23	−0.32
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	8.43	5.87	−2.56	0.00	−0.01	−2.55	−0.01
Air Power	National Security	4.67	2.07	−2.60	0.00	0.00	−2.28	−0.32
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	7.40	4.80	−2.60	0.00	−0.01	−2.55	−0.05
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	4.27	1.62	−2.65	0.00	0.00	−2.29	−0.35
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	7.86	5.21	−2.65	0.00	0.00	−2.49	−0.16
Space Operations	National Security	3.50	0.79	−2.71	0.00	0.00	−2.32	−0.40
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	6.39	3.66	−2.73	0.00	0.00	−2.61	−0.12
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	8.54	5.70	−2.84	0.00	−0.01	−2.51	−0.32
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	8.66	5.81	−2.85	0.00	−0.01	−2.51	−0.33
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	6.34	3.47	−2.87	0.00	0.00	−2.64	−0.22
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	7.56	4.62	−2.94	0.00	−0.01	−2.58	−0.36
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.01	5.02	−2.99	0.00	0.00	−2.90	−0.09
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	6.06	3.05	−3.01	0.00	0.00	−2.99	−0.02
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	4.62	1.57	−3.05	0.00	0.00	−2.67	−0.38
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	6.27	3.21	−3.06	0.00	0.00	−2.58	−0.48
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	5.50	−3.07	0.00	0.00	−2.88	−0.18
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	6.82	3.71	−3.11	+0.19	0.00	−2.74	−0.55
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	7.38	4.12	−3.26	0.00	0.00	−3.10	−0.15
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	8.30	4.79	−3.51	0.00	0.00	−3.41	−0.10
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	6.72	3.17	−3.55	0.00	0.00	−3.33	−0.22
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.76	4.06	−3.70	0.00	0.00	−3.09	−0.61
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	8.54	4.44	−4.10	0.00	−0.01	−3.50	−0.59
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	7.39	3.00	−4.39	0.00	0.00	−4.33	−0.05
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	5.52	0.93	−4.59	0.00	0.00	−4.49	−0.11
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	8.31	2.96	−5.35	0.00	0.00	−4.74	−0.61
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	7.76	1.47	−6.29	0.00	0.00	−5.83	−0.46

Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-bgd. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.