Simulation 2
Chile, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 2: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 10.29 at the 1996 position, 9.35 in 2026; 116 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 2
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (median simulation), 14 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 9.35 (−0.94)
- From 10.29
- Rank by index
- 54
- From 44
- Domains at Tier 1
- 1
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 0 upside events
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 10.30 +0.010 | |
| 1998 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.21 −0.093 |
| 1999 |
| 10.23 +0.021 | |
| 2000 |
| 10.25 +0.024 | |
| 2001 |
| 10.29 +0.039 | |
| 2002 |
| 10.34 +0.050 | |
| 2003 |
| 10.39 +0.047 | |
| 2004 |
| 10.43 +0.039 | |
| 2005 |
| 10.46 +0.032 | |
| 2006 |
| 10.49 +0.027 | |
| 2007 |
| 10.51 +0.027 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 10.35 −0.161 |
| 2009 |
| 10.39 +0.034 | |
| 2010 |
| Core disaster | 10.02 −0.372 |
| 2011 |
| 10.05 +0.034 | |
| 2012 |
| 10.08 +0.030 | |
| 2013 |
| 10.11 +0.031 | |
| 2014 |
| 10.14 +0.032 | |
| 2015 |
| 10.17 +0.030 | |
| 2016 |
| 10.20 +0.032 | |
| 2017 |
| 10.24 +0.032 | |
| 2018 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 10.21 −0.021 |
| 2019 |
| Legitimacy rupture | 9.83 −0.388 |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 9.27 −0.562 |
| 2021 |
| 9.28 +0.015 | |
| 2022 |
| 9.29 +0.009 | |
| 2023 |
| 9.30 +0.011 | |
| 2024 |
| 9.31 +0.011 | |
| 2025 |
| 9.33 +0.018 | |
| 2026 |
| 9.35 +0.022 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Human Capital | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Governance & Integrity | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Production & Innovation | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Trade & Investment | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.244 | −90.7 | −1.00 |
| No shocks | +2.077 | +145.3 | +1.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.001 | −0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.015 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.600 | +42.3 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.528 | +37.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.430 | +30.3 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.50 | 18.59 | +7.09 | +7.50 | 0.00 | −0.89 | +0.48 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 9.81 | 16.49 | +6.68 | +8.35 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.15 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 12.04 | 17.22 | +5.18 | +6.31 | 0.00 | −1.15 | +0.02 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 13.73 | 17.77 | +4.04 | +6.73 | 0.00 | −2.16 | −0.24 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 12.60 | 15.98 | +3.38 | +4.26 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.03 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 12.42 | 14.92 | +2.50 | +4.11 | 0.00 | −1.51 | −0.10 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 12.31 | 14.76 | +2.45 | +4.62 | 0.00 | −1.94 | −0.23 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 12.68 | 14.48 | +1.80 | +3.28 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.15 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.80 | 13.27 | +1.47 | +3.09 | 0.00 | −1.71 | +0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 13.67 | 15.08 | +1.41 | +2.62 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.02 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 13.10 | 14.38 | +1.28 | +2.38 | 0.00 | −1.25 | +0.15 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.79 | 12.51 | +0.72 | +2.42 | 0.00 | −1.52 | −0.18 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 13.66 | 13.82 | +0.16 | +2.96 | 0.00 | −2.72 | −0.08 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.11 | 14.22 | +0.11 | +1.60 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.31 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | −0.02 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.30 | 11.95 | −0.35 | +2.02 | 0.00 | −2.15 | −0.21 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.01 | 13.65 | −0.36 | +3.03 | 0.00 | −3.21 | −0.19 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.29 | 8.72 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.53 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.40 | 8.75 | −0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.45 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 10.33 | 9.43 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | +0.18 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.17 | 9.03 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.24 | +0.10 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 8.79 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.06 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.81 | 11.60 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.01 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 8.71 | 7.47 | −1.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.20 | −0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 13.06 | 11.79 | −1.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.20 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.27 | 4.99 | −1.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.02 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 14.73 | 13.45 | −1.28 | +3.08 | 0.00 | −3.78 | −0.58 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.02 | 10.73 | −1.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.07 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 11.97 | 10.67 | −1.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | +0.05 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 8.32 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.12 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 6.34 | 5.01 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.25 | −0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 11.61 | 10.25 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.21 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 8.03 | 6.67 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.76 | +0.39 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.90 | 1.54 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.33 | −0.03 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 1.39 | 0.00 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.56 | −0.01 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 2.37 | 0.98 | −1.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.05 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 12.68 | 11.28 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.42 | +0.02 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.40 | 8.92 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.30 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 4.52 | 3.03 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.18 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.64 | 13.14 | −1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.35 | −0.15 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 4.91 | 3.38 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.05 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 6.44 | 4.91 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.24 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.64 | 8.11 | −1.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | −0.35 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 3.73 | 2.16 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.03 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 12.70 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.39 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 4.06 | 2.48 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.28 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 5.70 | 4.04 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.26 | −0.40 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 8.43 | 6.74 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.75 | +0.06 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 2.89 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.41 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 5.43 | 3.73 | −1.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.42 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.28 | 9.55 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 14.56 | 12.69 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.00 | +0.13 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.33 | 11.45 | −1.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.23 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 6.61 | 4.69 | −1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.79 | −0.14 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 9.75 | 7.78 | −1.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.72 | −0.25 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.78 | 8.76 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.87 | −0.15 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.37 | 8.34 | −2.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.16 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 8.96 | 6.92 | −2.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | −0.14 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 9.94 | 7.89 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.88 | −0.18 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.79 | 4.71 | −2.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.03 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 11.90 | 9.67 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | +0.25 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 8.99 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.24 | −0.02 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 10.64 | 8.30 | −2.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.23 | −0.10 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 7.61 | −2.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.22 | −0.17 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 13.93 | 11.50 | −2.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.47 | +0.04 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 8.25 | −2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.43 | −0.04 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 13.69 | 11.07 | −2.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.14 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 11.21 | 8.33 | −2.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.41 | −0.46 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 9.95 | 7.01 | −2.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.80 | −0.15 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 8.98 | 6.04 | −2.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.48 | −0.47 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 10.81 | 7.78 | −3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.82 | −0.21 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 12.79 | 9.75 | −3.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.91 | −0.13 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.03 | 9.68 | −3.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.40 | +0.04 |
Seed 2 of experiment cycle-002.e4-chl. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.