Simulation 22
Colombia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: a good simulation (90th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 9.85 at the 1996 position, 8.77 in 2026; 72 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 22
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 27 (median simulation), 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 8.77 (−1.08)
- From 9.85
- Rank by index
- 61
- From 49
- Domains at Tier 1
- 0
- From 0
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 9.87 +0.025 | |
| 1998 |
| 9.92 +0.048 | |
| 1999 |
| Global funding seizureCore disaster | 9.48 −0.444 |
| 2000 |
| 9.51 +0.029 | |
| 2001 |
| 9.52 +0.010 | |
| 2002 |
| 9.53 +0.010 | |
| 2003 |
| 9.54 +0.017 | |
| 2004 |
| 9.56 +0.015 | |
| 2005 |
| 9.57 +0.013 | |
| 2006 |
| 9.58 +0.012 | |
| 2007 |
| 9.59 +0.011 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 9.44 −0.151 |
| 2009 |
| 9.45 +0.004 | |
| 2010 |
| Core disaster | 9.20 −0.248 |
| 2011 |
| 9.19 −0.006 | |
| 2012 |
| Market access opening | 9.22 +0.023 |
| 2013 |
| 9.24 +0.027 | |
| 2014 |
| 9.28 +0.031 | |
| 2015 |
| 9.28 +0.001 | |
| 2016 |
| 9.28 +0.004 | |
| 2017 |
| 9.28 +0.004 | |
| 2018 |
| 9.29 +0.004 | |
| 2019 |
| 9.29 +0.004 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 8.80 −0.493 |
| 2021 |
| 8.80 −0.003 | |
| 2022 |
| 8.79 −0.008 | |
| 2023 |
| 8.78 −0.006 | |
| 2024 |
| 8.78 −0.006 | |
| 2025 |
| 8.77 −0.006 | |
| 2026 |
| 8.77 −0.002 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| National Security | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Human Capital | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Financial Strength | 14 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Production & Innovation | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Trade & Investment | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.426 | −32.8 | 0.00 |
| No shocks | +1.743 | +121.8 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | +0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.008 | +0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | +0.012 | +0.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | +0.002 | +0.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.015 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.563 | +39.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.336 | +23.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.384 | +26.6 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 8.55 | 15.84 | +7.29 | +8.34 | 0.00 | −0.89 | −0.16 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 12.46 | 16.97 | +4.51 | +5.65 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.56 |
| Land Power | National Security | 13.07 | 17.13 | +4.06 | +4.25 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.38 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 11.95 | 14.88 | +2.93 | +4.17 | 0.00 | −1.04 | −0.19 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 11.59 | 14.04 | +2.45 | +2.97 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.06 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.60 | 11.58 | +0.98 | +2.87 | 0.00 | −1.31 | −0.59 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 10.40 | 10.00 | −0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | +0.18 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 10.15 | 9.72 | −0.43 | +0.39 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.07 |
| Air Power | National Security | 11.30 | 10.78 | −0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.04 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 6.36 | 5.79 | −0.57 | +0.63 | 0.00 | −1.08 | −0.11 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 10.77 | 10.11 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.09 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 10.24 | 9.57 | −0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.03 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 1.49 | 0.80 | −0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.66 | −0.03 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 11.09 | 10.38 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.14 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 10.64 | 9.91 | −0.73 | +0.86 | 0.00 | −1.32 | −0.26 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 7.49 | 6.75 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.14 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 9.98 | 9.21 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.69 | −0.08 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 9.28 | 8.49 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.01 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.39 | 6.60 | −0.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.02 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 8.44 | 7.63 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.02 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 5.97 | 5.11 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.07 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.97 | 6.11 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.26 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.83 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.07 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 3.07 | 2.20 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.04 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.34 | 3.47 | −0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.07 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 6.77 | 5.87 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.12 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 6.58 | 5.68 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.11 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 9.93 | 9.02 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.11 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 9.40 | 8.47 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.78 | −0.16 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 9.85 | 8.91 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.13 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.11 | 11.14 | −0.97 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.08 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 11.15 | 10.14 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.22 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 9.68 | 8.66 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.21 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 9.88 | 8.85 | −1.03 | +0.40 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.27 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 7.34 | 6.30 | −1.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.27 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 11.21 | 10.16 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.26 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 10.75 | 9.70 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.01 | 8.94 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.15 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 11.71 | 10.60 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.01 | −0.10 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.96 | 10.82 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.90 | −0.24 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 10.78 | 9.62 | −1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.14 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.96 | 9.75 | −1.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.91 | −0.29 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 8.89 | 7.64 | −1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | −0.31 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 6.25 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.07 | −0.29 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 10.25 | 8.87 | −1.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.23 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.91 | 7.51 | −1.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.28 | −0.13 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 11.48 | −1.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.13 | −0.34 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.21 | 8.64 | −1.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.34 | −0.23 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 10.45 | 8.84 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.55 | −0.05 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 11.02 | 9.41 | −1.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.12 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 10.80 | 9.14 | −1.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.17 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 9.87 | 8.18 | −1.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.50 | −0.18 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 10.89 | 9.17 | −1.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.48 | −0.23 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 10.31 | 8.58 | −1.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.49 | −0.24 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.80 | 9.06 | −1.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.44 | −0.29 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 11.44 | 9.65 | −1.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.12 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 11.34 | 9.47 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.18 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 8.42 | 6.55 | −1.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.18 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 10.72 | 8.67 | −2.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.81 | −0.25 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 11.35 | 9.28 | −2.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.68 | −0.39 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 9.89 | 7.77 | −2.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.82 | −0.29 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 10.97 | 8.75 | −2.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.17 | −0.05 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 9.50 | 7.27 | −2.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.83 | −0.39 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.16 | 8.91 | −2.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.67 | −0.58 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 9.74 | 7.47 | −2.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.05 | −0.22 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 10.73 | 8.43 | −2.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.04 | −0.26 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 10.70 | 8.39 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | −0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 10.19 | 7.88 | −2.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.35 | +0.04 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 11.98 | 9.54 | −2.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.14 | −0.30 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 9.02 | 6.22 | −2.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.58 | −0.22 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 10.98 | 8.17 | −2.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.75 | −0.05 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 10.40 | 7.45 | −2.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.98 | +0.04 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 10.32 | 6.57 | −3.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −3.32 | −0.44 |
Seed 22 of experiment cycle-002.e4-col. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.