E4 · cycle-002.e4-col

Colombia, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Colombia decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 3, Core disaster in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 14, Market access opening in year 16, Severe pandemic in year 24.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 8.75 (−1.10); From 9.85; 8.74 to 8.77
Rank by index: 61; From 49; 61 to 61
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0; 0 to 0
Tier rank: 35; From 52; 35 to 35

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	9.85	8.74	8.75	8.77	higher
Rank by index	49	61	61	61	lower
Tier rank	52	35	35	35	lower
Domains at Tier 1	0	0	0	0	higher
Score sum	710.2	636.7	637.5	638.6	higher
Goal-weighted score	710.2	636.7	637.5	638.6	higher
Resilient score	710.2	637.5 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 17 per cent, buy took 33 per cent, partner took 50 per cent of the 667 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Colombia actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 9.85; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 9.11; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 8.75; 8.70 to 8.81
Skill against persistence: −0.39; group error 1.87 against 1.35 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	6.14	3.55	5.22 5.2–5.3	+1.68	right
Strategic Infrastructure	10.97	10.35	9.73 9.6–9.8	−0.61	right
National Security	9.66	7.12	10.31 10.2–10.4	+3.19	wrong
Human Capital	10.36	10.44	9.21 9.2–9.3	−1.23	wrong
Information & Influence	10.54	9.43	9.96 9.9–10.0	+0.53	right
Governance & Integrity	9.71	10.81	9.87 9.8–9.9	−0.94	wrong
Financial Strength	10.56	10.85	7.99 7.9–8.1	−2.86	wrong
Production & Innovation	10.19	9.43	8.15 8.1–8.2	−1.27	right
Trade & Investment	10.50	10.05	8.31 8.3–8.4	−1.73	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

1999 · S02 × 0.7 A sudden stop and banking crisis after the 1998 external shock forced mortgage debt restructuring and IMF support, with GDP contracting by 4.2 per cent in 1999.
1999 · S07 × 0.4 The Armenia earthquake in January 1999 devastated a regional capital and exposed weak disaster response, though it did not disable the national economic core.
2008 · S02 × 0.4 The global financial crisis tightened external financing and slowed the economy, but Colombia avoided a severe banking collapse.
2010 · S07 × 0.4 La Niña floods in 2010-2011 affected millions and major infrastructure, but the national core continued to function.
2012 · S12 × 0.4 Implementation of the US-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement opened and stabilised access for key exports and redirected some investment.
2020 · S10 × 0.8 COVID-19 strained the health system, caused a sharp economic contraction and revealed deep inequalities in access to care and social protection.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2002 · partner · 5% each Plan Colombia and the build-up against drug trafficking and insurgency, funded heavily with United States assistance, dominated the national agenda. (Internal Security & Order, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Land Power, Intelligence & Assessment, Alliances & Security Cooperation)
2002–2010 · buy · 5% each Democratic Security policy expanded and modernised the armed forces to regain territorial control from FARC and ELN. (Internal Security & Order, Force Generation & Mobilisation, Land Power, Intelligence & Assessment, Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment)
2002–2010 · partner · 2% each Uribe pursued investor confidence, the US trade agreement and security-linked investment, alongside fiscal consolidation and business climate reforms. (Trade Policy & Market Access, Investment Attraction & Projection, Export Capability & Sophistication, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2010–2018 · build · 5% each Santos prioritised 4G highway concessions, peace negotiation institutions, science and education funding, and post-conflict reincorporation. (Transport Infrastructure, Political Institutions & Civic Participation, Justice System & Fundamental Rights, Innovation & Commercialisation, Advanced Education)
2018–2022 · build · 2% each Duque faced mass Venezuelan migration and COVID-19, strengthening health, digital connectivity and crisis response. (National Resilience & Crisis Management, Population Health, Health System Capability, Technology Adoption & Diffusion, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls)
2022–2026 · build · 2% each Petro's 'total peace', energy transition and agrarian reform sought to address conflict, climate and rural inequality. (Energy Technologies, Energy Infrastructure, Agriculture & Food Infrastructure, Internal Security & Order, Political Institutions & Civic Participation)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): The 1996 starting position is reconstructed from often fragmented national accounts, conflict-era service data and contemporaneous institutional assessments; scores for frontier technologies are especially uncertain because Colombia had little visible presence. The policy periods simplify overlapping security, economic and social agendas, and the event magnitudes are judgements relative to the severe-case scenario, not precise econometric estimates.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Colombia played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 9.85 to a median of 8.75 (−1.10), with 90 per cent of simulations between 8.74 and 8.77 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 49 on the index against the frozen field, holds 0 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 52. Its base income is 276 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 667 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were Internal Security & Order (buy, 96 credits, 14.4 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (buy, 80 credits, 12.0 per cent); Land Power (partner, 80 credits, 11.9 per cent); Internal Security & Order (partner, 80 credits, 11.9 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (partner, 80 credits, 11.9 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: partner 50 per cent, buy 33 per cent, build 17 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.184, and the most repeated action appeared in 27 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, National Security; rounds 6 to 10, National Security; rounds 11 to 15, Governance & Integrity; rounds 16 to 20, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 21 to 25, Strategic Infrastructure; rounds 26 to 30, Critical Technology [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −34.8 points each); S07 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −16.9 points each); S02 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −14.1 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance −3.38; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −3.21; Financial System Depth & Access −2.81; Labour & Employment −2.70 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Force Generation & Mobilisation to Land Power (+0.63 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (−0.66 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (−0.62 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 61 (5th to 95th percentile 61 to 61), the median count of Tier 1 domains 0 (0 to 0) and the median tier rank 35; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 638 [experiment_objectives].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.743 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.743 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.426: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between −0.015 and +0.012, for example 1997 partner Internal Security & Order (14 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.563 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

tier_jump (warn): largest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2).

retired_words (warn): e4-col/report.md: 'simulations' 1 time(s), first near line 38; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 15) ends −0.02 from it, with 5 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 9.85 the model ends at 8.75, where the 2026 ratings put it at 9.11. Group scores miss by 1.87 points on average, against 1.35 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.39); the change in each domain has the right sign in 56 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: financial strength (−2.86); furthest above: national security (+3.19) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.426	−32.8
No shocks	+1.743	+121.8
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.000	+0.0	1997 partner Internal Security & Order (14 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.008	+0.6	1997 partner Force Generation & Mobilisation (14 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.012	+0.9	1997 partner Land Power (14 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.002	+0.1	1997 partner Intelligence & Assessment (14 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.015	−0.6	1997 partner Alliances & Security Cooperation (14 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.563	+39.8	2020 S10 (-34.8 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.336	+23.9	2010 S07 (-17.6 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.384	+26.6	1999 S02 (-17.5 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	7.5	−14.1
Core disaster S07	Shock	100 per cent	8.5	−16.9
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−34.8
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	16.0	+6.9

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	8.55	15.87 15.84 to 15.90	+7.32	8.33	176
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	12.46	16.87 16.74 to 17.00	+4.41	5.63	159
Land Power	National Security	13.07	17.30 17.16 to 17.42	+4.23	4.25	124
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	11.95	14.87 14.85 to 14.91	+2.92	4.17	40
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	11.59	14.04 14.01 to 14.10	+2.45	2.98	54
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.60	11.60 11.37 to 11.88	+1.00	2.77	70
Maritime Power	National Security	10.40	9.96 9.91 to 10.02	−0.44	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	10.15	9.65 9.56 to 9.74	−0.50	0.34	7
Air Power	National Security	11.30	10.76 10.67 to 10.81	−0.54	0.00	0
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	6.36	5.78 5.68 to 5.84	−0.58	0.61	14
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	10.24	9.58 9.56 to 9.58	−0.66	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	1.49	0.81 0.81 to 0.82	−0.68	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	10.77	10.07 10.03 to 10.12	−0.70	0.00	0
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	10.64	9.94 9.84 to 10.05	−0.70	0.84	16
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	11.09	10.38 10.35 to 10.42	−0.71	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	7.49	6.74 6.69 to 6.77	−0.75	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	9.28	8.48 8.47 to 8.49	−0.80	0.00	0
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	9.98	9.18 9.16 to 9.20	−0.80	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	7.39	6.58 6.57 to 6.60	−0.81	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	8.44	7.62 7.60 to 7.63	−0.82	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	6.13 6.08 to 6.16	−0.84	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	5.97	5.11 5.09 to 5.13	−0.86	0.00	0
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	2.21 2.20 to 2.22	−0.86	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	4.69	3.82 3.81 to 3.84	−0.87	0.00	0
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	4.34	3.44 3.42 to 3.47	−0.90	0.00	0
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	9.93	9.03 9.01 to 9.06	−0.90	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	6.58	5.67 5.64 to 5.70	−0.91	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	6.77	5.85 5.83 to 5.89	−0.92	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	9.40	8.47 8.44 to 8.50	−0.93	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	9.85	8.89 8.87 to 8.91	−0.96	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.11	11.10 11.06 to 11.14	−1.01	0.00	0
Advanced Education	Human Capital	11.15	10.14 10.11 to 10.20	−1.01	0.00	0
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	9.68	8.65 8.63 to 8.69	−1.03	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	10.75	9.71 9.70 to 9.71	−1.04	0.00	0
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	7.34	6.28 6.21 to 6.33	−1.06	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	11.21	10.14 10.07 to 10.19	−1.07	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	9.88	8.81 8.71 to 8.91	−1.07	0.37	6
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	11.71	10.59 10.55 to 10.62	−1.12	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.01	8.87 8.80 to 8.95	−1.14	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.96	10.77 10.70 to 10.83	−1.19	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	10.78	9.57 9.52 to 9.63	−1.21	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	10.96	9.72 9.66 to 9.77	−1.24	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.89	7.57 7.45 to 7.66	−1.32	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	7.61	6.22 6.14 to 6.27	−1.39	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	8.91	7.51 7.47 to 7.53	−1.40	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	8.82 8.74 to 8.87	−1.43	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.96	11.45 11.33 to 11.52	−1.51	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.21	8.61 8.55 to 8.66	−1.60	0.01	1
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	10.45	8.81 8.79 to 8.84	−1.64	0.00	0
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.02	9.35 9.31 to 9.39	−1.67	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	10.80	9.13 9.09 to 9.16	−1.67	0.00	0
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	9.87	8.14 8.10 to 8.17	−1.73	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	10.31	8.58 8.54 to 8.64	−1.73	0.00	0
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	10.89	9.10 9.03 to 9.19	−1.79	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	11.44	9.63 9.61 to 9.67	−1.81	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	6.57 6.53 to 6.61	−1.85	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	11.34	9.49 9.45 to 9.53	−1.85	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.80	8.94 8.82 to 9.06	−1.86	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	10.72	8.64 8.61 to 8.71	−2.08	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	11.35	9.25 9.16 to 9.34	−2.10	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	9.89	7.77 7.70 to 7.84	−2.12	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	9.50	7.31 7.27 to 7.37	−2.19	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	10.97	8.71 8.70 to 8.74	−2.26	0.00	0
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	10.73	8.46 8.41 to 8.51	−2.27	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.74	7.45 7.41 to 7.48	−2.29	0.00	0
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	10.70	8.38 8.31 to 8.45	−2.32	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	10.19	7.86 7.78 to 7.94	−2.33	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	11.98	9.54 9.43 to 9.65	−2.44	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.16	8.69 8.60 to 8.91	−2.47	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	9.02	6.22 6.18 to 6.27	−2.80	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	10.98	8.17 8.15 to 8.18	−2.81	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	10.40	7.51 7.46 to 7.57	−2.89	0.00	0
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	6.58 6.52 to 6.69	−3.74	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 7.1e-15
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.801 to 17.835
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 9.9e-07 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 1.49 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
warntier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 6 tiers (30 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 49; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
passsaturation_high0% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passsaturation_low0% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 0 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.184; most funded group soft.governance_and_integrity.internal_security_and_order
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 27% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-col. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Colombia (COL)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Global funding seizure in year 3, Core disaster in year 3, Global funding seizure in year 12, Core disaster in year 14, Market access opening in year 16, Severe pandemic in year 24
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 276 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.2 seconds in all; 1043 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.