Simulation 18
Czechia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 18: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 11.89 at the 1996 position, 11.76 in 2026; 122 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 18
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 10 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 12 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 11.76 (−0.13)
- From 11.89
- Rank by index
- 30
- From 30
- Domains at Tier 1
- 3
- From 0
- Events
- 6 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| Global funding seizureCore disaster | 11.64 −0.250 |
| 1998 |
| 11.69 +0.044 | |
| 1999 |
| 11.74 +0.057 | |
| 2000 |
| 11.79 +0.050 | |
| 2001 |
| 11.83 +0.042 | |
| 2002 |
| Core disaster | 11.75 −0.085 |
| 2003 |
| 11.79 +0.041 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 11.93 +0.140 |
| 2005 |
| 12.08 +0.148 | |
| 2006 |
| 12.23 +0.153 | |
| 2007 |
| 12.29 +0.056 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 12.10 −0.184 |
| 2009 |
| 12.14 +0.035 | |
| 2010 |
| 12.16 +0.023 | |
| 2011 |
| 12.18 +0.021 | |
| 2012 |
| 12.20 +0.019 | |
| 2013 |
| 12.22 +0.018 | |
| 2014 |
| 12.26 +0.038 | |
| 2015 |
| 12.29 +0.039 | |
| 2016 |
| 12.33 +0.033 | |
| 2017 |
| 12.36 +0.028 | |
| 2018 |
| 12.37 +0.014 | |
| 2019 |
| 12.38 +0.013 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 12.03 −0.356 |
| 2021 |
| 12.03 0.000 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spillover | 11.74 −0.281 |
| 2023 |
| 11.74 −0.001 | |
| 2024 |
| 11.74 −0.001 | |
| 2025 |
| 11.75 +0.004 | |
| 2026 |
| 11.76 +0.009 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Human Capital | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| Information & Influence | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Governance & Integrity | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Production & Innovation | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Trade & Investment | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −1.022 | −75.7 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.289 | +87.1 | +2.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | −0.016 | −1.2 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | +0.022 | +1.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | −0.009 | −0.8 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | −0.006 | −0.6 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | −0.020 | −1.5 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.392 | +27.2 | +0.90 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.286 | +20.5 | +0.80 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.287 | +19.1 | +0.90 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 12.53 | 17.87 | +5.34 | +5.27 | 0.00 | +0.07 | 0.00 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 12.67 | 17.84 | +5.17 | +5.46 | 0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.17 | 18.92 | +4.75 | +5.59 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −0.24 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.42 | 16.90 | +3.48 | +4.04 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.07 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 15.73 | 19.02 | +3.29 | +4.39 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.01 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.41 | 17.76 | +2.35 | +3.11 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.46 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 8.51 | 10.67 | +2.16 | +2.88 | 0.00 | −0.73 | +0.01 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 9.90 | 11.99 | +2.09 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −0.74 | +0.17 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 4.18 | 6.24 | +2.06 | +2.73 | 0.00 | −0.72 | +0.06 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 9.25 | 11.19 | +1.94 | +2.54 | 0.00 | −0.71 | +0.12 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 15.39 | 17.33 | +1.94 | +3.17 | 0.00 | −1.43 | +0.20 |
| Air Power | National Security | 9.64 | 11.55 | +1.91 | +2.66 | 0.00 | −0.73 | −0.02 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 14.88 | 16.60 | +1.72 | +2.86 | 0.00 | −0.92 | −0.22 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 15.01 | 16.57 | +1.56 | +1.94 | 0.00 | −0.29 | −0.08 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 12.68 | 14.14 | +1.46 | +2.32 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.07 |
| Land Power | National Security | 10.93 | 12.23 | +1.30 | +2.05 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.03 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 11.56 | 12.41 | +0.85 | +2.78 | 0.00 | −1.89 | −0.04 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.52 | 15.29 | +0.77 | +1.18 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.16 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 14.00 | 14.31 | +0.31 | +0.51 | 0.00 | −0.33 | +0.13 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 15.26 | 15.35 | +0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | +0.04 | +0.05 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 13.71 | 13.75 | +0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.40 | +0.44 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.81 | −0.03 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 11.68 | 11.54 | −0.14 | +0.90 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.37 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 13.86 | 13.57 | −0.29 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.31 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 12.94 | 12.64 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | +0.04 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 10.07 | 9.77 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.17 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 13.30 | 12.95 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | 0.00 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 15.21 | 14.80 | −0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.03 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 16.45 | 16.03 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.31 | −0.11 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 12.80 | 12.37 | −0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.42 | −0.01 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 9.58 | 9.11 | −0.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.18 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 9.63 | 9.08 | −0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.70 | +0.16 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 15.29 | 14.71 | −0.58 | +1.54 | 0.00 | −1.86 | −0.25 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 9.69 | 9.08 | −0.61 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.04 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 13.57 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.12 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 12.94 | 12.24 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.07 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 11.38 | 10.67 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.21 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 13.73 | 13.02 | −0.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.11 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 5.24 | 4.52 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.71 | −0.01 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 15.98 | 15.26 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.16 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 4.69 | 3.96 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.72 | −0.02 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.75 | −0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | +0.02 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 7.84 | 7.03 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.68 | −0.13 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 13.92 | 13.11 | −0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.79 | −0.01 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 4.58 | 3.72 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.76 | −0.10 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 10.05 | 9.19 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.94 | +0.09 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 12.48 | 11.60 | −0.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.11 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 10.35 | 9.42 | −0.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | −0.30 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 14.01 | 13.08 | −0.93 | +0.99 | 0.00 | −1.85 | −0.07 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 12.62 | 11.68 | −0.94 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.17 |
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 11.80 | 10.85 | −0.95 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.12 | +0.17 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 9.74 | 8.75 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | +0.04 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 14.56 | 13.56 | −1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.87 | −0.12 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 9.98 | 8.97 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.05 | +0.04 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.96 | 11.94 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.85 | −0.17 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 7.61 | 6.58 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.20 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.05 | 13.02 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.84 | −0.20 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 13.30 | 12.27 | −1.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | +0.07 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 13.06 | 12.01 | −1.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.03 | −0.02 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 12.10 | 11.01 | −1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.11 | +0.03 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 10.94 | 9.84 | −1.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.09 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 1.89 | 0.72 | −1.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.16 | −0.01 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 6.30 | 5.08 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.09 | −0.13 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 14.44 | 13.08 | −1.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | 0.00 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 13.78 | 12.41 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.37 | 0.00 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.94 | 13.52 | −1.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.00 | −0.42 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 12.08 | 10.62 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.90 | +0.44 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 10.00 | 8.48 | −1.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.41 | −0.10 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 13.79 | 12.20 | −1.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.13 | +0.55 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 11.25 | 9.54 | −1.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.66 | −0.06 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 11.24 | 9.33 | −1.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.80 | −0.12 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 11.75 | 9.73 | −2.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.19 | +0.18 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 13.26 | 10.15 | −3.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.84 | −0.28 |
Seed 18 of experiment cycle-002.e4-cze. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.