Simulation 1
Finland, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 1: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 15.66 at the 1996 position, 15.42 in 2026; 152 actions over 30 rounds and 5 shocks.
Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 1
The experiment · The other representative simulations: 17 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 14 (a good simulation (90th percentile))
Outcome
From the 1996 position to 2026.
- Capability index
- 15.42 (−0.24)
- From 15.66
- Rank by index
- 9
- From 7
- Domains at Tier 1
- 6
- From 5
- Events
- 5 shocks
- 1 upside event
Trajectory by domain
The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.
- ShockUpside event
Capability index by round
Pathway, round by round
Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.
| Round | Decision | Events | Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1997 |
| 15.67 +0.008 | |
| 1998 |
| 15.69 +0.016 | |
| 1999 |
| 15.71 +0.024 | |
| 2000 |
| 15.74 +0.026 | |
| 2001 |
| 15.77 +0.030 | |
| 2002 |
| 15.80 +0.027 | |
| 2003 |
| 15.82 +0.024 | |
| 2004 |
| Market access opening | 15.89 +0.072 |
| 2005 |
| 15.96 +0.069 | |
| 2006 |
| 16.03 +0.067 | |
| 2007 |
| 16.04 +0.016 | |
| 2008 |
| Global funding seizure | 15.89 −0.148 |
| 2009 |
| 15.91 +0.017 | |
| 2010 |
| 15.93 +0.021 | |
| 2011 |
| 15.97 +0.032 | |
| 2012 |
| 16.00 +0.031 | |
| 2013 |
| 16.02 +0.024 | |
| 2014 |
| Trade bloc rupture | 15.99 −0.033 |
| 2015 |
| 15.95 −0.034 | |
| 2016 |
| 15.92 −0.035 | |
| 2017 |
| 15.94 +0.017 | |
| 2018 |
| 15.96 +0.020 | |
| 2019 |
| 15.98 +0.021 | |
| 2020 |
| Severe pandemic | 15.82 −0.159 |
| 2021 |
| 15.83 +0.013 | |
| 2022 |
| Regional war spilloverTrade bloc rupture | 15.48 −0.353 |
| 2023 |
| 15.43 −0.046 | |
| 2024 |
| 15.39 −0.046 | |
| 2025 |
| 15.40 +0.014 | |
| 2026 |
| 15.42 +0.017 |
Credits
What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.
Tiers by round
Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.
| Domain | 1996 | 2001 | 2006 | 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2026 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Critical Technology | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Strategic Infrastructure | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| National Security | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Human Capital | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Information & Influence | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Governance & Integrity | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Financial Strength | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Production & Innovation | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trade & Investment | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Probes
What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds, this one among them: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.
| Probe | Index | Score sum | Tier 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hold instead of the method | −0.755 | −55.8 | −3.00 |
| No shocks | +1.044 | +73.0 | 0.00 |
| Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing) | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest decision | 0.000 | −0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 4th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 5th largest decision | 0.000 | 0.0 | 0.00 |
| Without the 1st largest shock | +0.317 | +22.9 | 0.00 |
| Without the 2nd largest shock | +0.203 | +14.1 | 0.00 |
| Without the 3rd largest shock | +0.201 | +14.0 | 0.00 |
Every group over the simulation
Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.
73 of 73 groups
Capability group | Domain | 1996 | 2026 | Change | Invested | Decay | Events | Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship | Production & Innovation | 14.08 | 19.39 | +5.31 | +7.45 | 0.00 | −0.74 | −0.02 |
| Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations | National Security | 15.83 | 20.00 | +4.17 | +6.21 | 0.00 | −0.56 | −0.03 |
| Energy Technologies | Critical Technology | 14.27 | 18.30 | +4.03 | +4.67 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.17 |
| Industrial & Sectoral Base | Production & Innovation | 15.81 | 18.71 | +2.90 | +4.10 | 0.00 | −1.15 | −0.05 |
| Artificial Intelligence | Critical Technology | 11.16 | 13.95 | +2.79 | +3.60 | 0.00 | −0.81 | 0.00 |
| Quantum Technologies | Critical Technology | 11.52 | 13.57 | +2.05 | +2.65 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.20 |
| Advanced Education | Human Capital | 17.81 | 19.69 | +1.88 | +5.25 | 0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 |
| Financial Stability & Crisis Management | Financial Strength | 17.53 | 19.30 | +1.77 | +3.01 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.08 |
| Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls | Governance & Integrity | 18.24 | 20.00 | +1.76 | +2.58 | 0.00 | −0.31 | +0.01 |
| Research Talent & Knowledge Creation | Human Capital | 17.92 | 19.62 | +1.70 | +1.92 | 0.00 | −0.20 | +0.38 |
| Force Generation & Mobilisation | National Security | 18.74 | 20.00 | +1.26 | +2.69 | 0.00 | −0.59 | +0.11 |
| National Resilience & Crisis Management | Governance & Integrity | 18.83 | 20.00 | +1.17 | +5.17 | 0.00 | −0.53 | +0.06 |
| Semiconductors & Advanced Computing | Critical Technology | 11.99 | 12.99 | +1.00 | +2.11 | 0.00 | −1.19 | +0.08 |
| Government Effectiveness & Public Administration | Governance & Integrity | 19.07 | 19.40 | +0.33 | +1.70 | 0.00 | −0.46 | +0.12 |
| Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance | Financial Strength | 16.93 | 17.09 | +0.16 | +2.00 | 0.00 | −1.64 | −0.20 |
| Innovation & Commercialisation | Production & Innovation | 19.03 | 19.16 | +0.13 | +2.89 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.62 |
| Technical & Vocational Skills | Human Capital | 17.02 | 17.13 | +0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.05 | +0.16 |
| Digital & AI Competence | Human Capital | 19.58 | 19.65 | +0.07 | +3.87 | 0.00 | −0.18 | +0.12 |
| Early Childhood Development | Human Capital | 19.25 | 18.99 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.04 |
| Lifelong Learning & Reskilling | Human Capital | 19.60 | 19.34 | −0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.22 | −0.04 |
| Foundational Education | Human Capital | 18.13 | 17.83 | −0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | +0.06 |
| Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption | Governance & Integrity | 18.72 | 18.37 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | 0.00 |
| Transparency, Oversight & Accountability | Governance & Integrity | 19.05 | 18.70 | −0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.34 | −0.01 |
| Nuclear Deterrence | National Security | 0.36 | 0.00 | −0.36 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.83 | −0.01 |
| Political Institutions & Civic Participation | Governance & Integrity | 18.58 | 18.21 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.35 | −0.02 |
| Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 18.03 | 17.66 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | +0.11 |
| Justice System & Fundamental Rights | Governance & Integrity | 17.62 | 17.25 | −0.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.01 |
| Health System Capability | Human Capital | 17.45 | 17.07 | −0.38 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.43 | +0.06 |
| Population Health | Human Capital | 16.18 | 15.79 | −0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.38 | −0.01 |
| Internal Security & Order | Governance & Integrity | 17.84 | 17.42 | −0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.36 | −0.06 |
| Social Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.10 | 18.66 | −0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.12 |
| Communications & Digital Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 19.45 | 18.99 | −0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.47 | +0.01 |
| Energy Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.03 | 14.55 | −0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.17 |
| Agriculture & Food Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 14.27 | 13.73 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.52 | −0.02 |
| Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 12.80 | 12.26 | −0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.53 | −0.01 |
| Land Power | National Security | 16.27 | 15.70 | −0.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | +0.08 |
| Advanced Manufacturing | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.29 | 16.71 | −0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.49 | −0.09 |
| Transport Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 15.75 | 15.15 | −0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.64 | +0.04 |
| Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies | Critical Technology | 20.00 | 19.40 | −0.60 | +3.74 | 0.00 | −0.58 | +0.11 |
| Air Power | National Security | 15.72 | 15.06 | −0.66 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.01 |
| Intelligence & Assessment | National Security | 15.52 | 14.82 | −0.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.65 | −0.04 |
| Robotics & Autonomous Systems | Critical Technology | 14.09 | 13.37 | −0.72 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | +0.04 |
| Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy | Information & Influence | 13.35 | 12.62 | −0.73 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | +0.07 |
| Structural Transformation & Complexity | Production & Innovation | 16.65 | 15.91 | −0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.92 | +0.18 |
| Financial Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 17.32 | 16.57 | −0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.59 | −0.15 |
| Diaspora & Global Communities | Information & Influence | 11.52 | 10.72 | −0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | +0.03 |
| Development Cooperation & Global Assistance | Information & Influence | 16.08 | 15.25 | −0.83 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.06 |
| Space Operations | National Security | 6.97 | 6.13 | −0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.75 | −0.09 |
| Space Technologies | Critical Technology | 7.60 | 6.74 | −0.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.86 | 0.00 |
| Sensing, Timing & Navigation | Critical Technology | 14.12 | 13.23 | −0.89 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.77 | −0.13 |
| Alliances & Security Cooperation | Information & Influence | 13.78 | 12.88 | −0.90 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.80 | −0.10 |
| Technology Adoption & Diffusion | Production & Innovation | 19.46 | 18.55 | −0.91 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.88 | −0.02 |
| Resource Infrastructure | Strategic Infrastructure | 16.39 | 15.47 | −0.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.82 | −0.10 |
| Information Environment & Strategic Communication | Information & Influence | 14.88 | 13.92 | −0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.99 | +0.03 |
| Advanced Materials & Manufacturing | Critical Technology | 16.06 | 15.07 | −0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.10 | +0.11 |
| Maritime Power | National Security | 12.82 | 11.81 | −1.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | +0.04 |
| Digital & Services Trade | Trade & Investment | 15.49 | 14.47 | −1.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.97 | −0.04 |
| Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment | National Security | 12.82 | 11.75 | −1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.06 | −0.01 |
| Financial Regulation & Integrity | Financial Strength | 18.37 | 17.26 | −1.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.22 | +0.10 |
| Biotechnology & Health Technologies | Critical Technology | 15.29 | 14.15 | −1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.31 | +0.18 |
| Economic Output & Productivity | Production & Innovation | 14.66 | 13.46 | −1.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.17 | −0.03 |
| Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks | Information & Influence | 14.18 | 12.96 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.18 | −0.04 |
| Strategic Strike & Missile Defence | National Security | 8.08 | 6.86 | −1.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.08 |
| Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power | Financial Strength | 11.58 | 10.35 | −1.23 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.14 | −0.09 |
| Financial System Depth & Access | Financial Strength | 15.19 | 13.88 | −1.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.30 | −0.01 |
| Investment Attraction & Projection | Trade & Investment | 14.09 | 12.76 | −1.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.27 | −0.06 |
| Export Capability & Sophistication | Trade & Investment | 16.35 | 14.98 | −1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.59 | +0.22 |
| Trade Policy & Market Access | Trade & Investment | 18.13 | 16.67 | −1.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.36 | −0.11 |
| Labour & Employment | Production & Innovation | 13.05 | 11.56 | −1.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.40 | −0.09 |
| Monetary & Currency Capability | Financial Strength | 16.86 | 15.28 | −1.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.63 | +0.05 |
| Trade Facilitation & Logistics | Trade & Investment | 16.80 | 15.20 | −1.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.58 | −0.02 |
| Global Value Chain Position | Trade & Investment | 17.32 | 15.65 | −1.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −1.57 | −0.11 |
| Economic Leverage & Dependence | Trade & Investment | 12.15 | 9.89 | −2.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −2.11 | −0.15 |
Seed 1 of experiment cycle-002.e4-fin. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.