E4 · cycle-002.e4-fin

Finland, scripted, 30 years from 1996

30 simulations of 30 rounds from the 1996 position. Finland decides by the scripted method; scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seeds 1–30 · elasticity sampled within each bracket

The same configuration in other cycles: cycle 3.

Every simulation · Compare with another experiment · More experiments like this

Not a forecast

Simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values, to compare methods and test the model. Other nations stay at their 2026 ratings throughout.

Outcome across simulations

The median at 2026, with the 10th to the 90th percentile of the 30 simulations under it.

Capability index: 15.42 (−0.24); From 15.66; 15.41 to 15.42
Rank by index: 9; From 7; 9 to 9
Domains at Tier 1: 6; From 5; 6 to 6
Tier rank: 2; From 3; 2 to 2

Capability index by round

Rank by index, by round

Every objective at the position and at the horizon
Objective	1996	10th percentile	Median	90th percentile	Better
Capability indexprimary	15.66	15.41	15.42	15.42	higher
Rank by index	7	9	9	9	lower
Tier rank	3	2	2	2	lower
Domains at Tier 1	5	6	6	6	higher
Score sum	1138.9	1124.7	1125.0	1125.2	higher
Goal-weighted score	1138.9	1124.7	1125.0	1125.2	higher
Resilient score	1138.9	1125.0 (mean score sum over the simulations)			higher

The capability index is the mean of the three dimensions, each the mean of its domains, each the mean of its groups. Tiers are Pareto layers within each domain; the tier rank orders nations by domains held at Tier 1, then Tier 2, and so on. The goal-weighted score is the score sum unless the experiment sets a goal. The primary objective is the one the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it.

Credits

What each round’s credits went on in the median simulation. Across all simulations, build took 94 per cent, buy took 0 per cent, partner took 6 per cent of the 3,339 credits a simulation spent on actions.

Against history

Started from a reconstructed 1996 position and played along the pathway and shocks Finland actually had, then scored against the 2026 ratings. The position is an estimate, so part of any error is the reconstruction's. The calibration summary across all fifty nations is on the cycle's page under Loop.

Index 1996: 15.66; reconstructed
Observed 2026: 14.52; the Index's rating
Simulated 2026: 15.42; 15.40 to 15.44
Skill against persistence: −0.07; group error 1.83 against 1.72 if nothing changed

Domain	1996	Observed	Simulated	Bias	Direction
Critical Technology	13.61	11.71	14.09 14.1–14.1	+2.38	wrong
Strategic Infrastructure	16.54	14.29	15.97 15.9–16.0	+1.68	right
National Security	12.31	11.03	12.22 12.2–12.2	+1.19	wrong
Human Capital	18.11	17.14	18.35 18.3–18.4	+1.21	wrong
Information & Influence	13.96	13.11	13.06 13.0–13.1	−0.05	right
Governance & Integrity	18.49	17.44	18.67 18.7–18.7	+1.23	wrong
Financial Strength	16.08	15.44	15.53 15.5–15.6	+0.09	right
Production & Innovation	16.11	15.54	16.67 16.6–16.7	+1.13	wrong
Trade & Investment	15.76	14.94	14.21 14.2–14.2	−0.73	right

The history it was played under: shocks and events

2004 · S12 × 0.4 EU enlargement opened Central and Eastern European markets and production networks to Finnish firms.
2008 · S02 × 0.6 The global financial crisis froze export finance and caused Finland's GDP to contract sharply, though the banking system survived without a domestic collapse.
2014 · S01 × 0.5 Russia's annexation of Crimea and EU sanctions led to Russian food import bans and a sharp fall in Finnish-Russian trade.
2020 · S10 × 0.5 COVID-19 triggered restrictions and health surge demand; Finland's system absorbed it with comparatively low excess mortality but economic disruption.
2022 · S03 × 0.7 Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine closed the eastern security environment and disrupted Baltic trade, accelerating Finland's NATO membership.
2022 · S01 × 0.6 EU sanctions and Russian energy countermeasures cut Finnish imports of Russian gas, electricity and timber and ended most bilateral trade.

The pathway: what it prioritised, period by period

1997–2000 · build · 2% each EMU convergence and the Nokia-led ICT boom drove education, research and innovation investment while fiscal consolidation restored public finances. (Advanced Education, Research Talent & Knowledge Creation, Innovation & Commercialisation, Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance)
2001–2008 · build · 2% each At the Nokia peak Finland prioritised its ICT cluster, digital skills, R&D commercialisation and a more entrepreneurial economy. (Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies, Digital & AI Competence, Innovation & Commercialisation, Advanced Education, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship)
2009–2014 · build · 2% each After Nokia's decline and the global financial crisis Finland sought industrial diversification, public-sector productivity and stronger financial oversight. (Industrial & Sectoral Base, Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship, Government Effectiveness & Public Administration, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Financial Stability & Crisis Management)
2015–2021 · build · 2% each Post-Crimea security tensions and hybrid threats accelerated total defence, cybersecurity and societal resilience while climate and energy regulatory policy advanced. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, National Resilience & Crisis Management, Energy Technologies, Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls)
2022–2026 · build · 5% each Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Finland's NATO accession triggered a decisive, sustained defence and resilience investment increase. (Force Generation & Mobilisation, Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations, National Resilience & Crisis Management)
2023–2026 · partner · 2% each EU Chips Act, AI and quantum initiatives led Finland to partner on semiconductor and emerging technology capabilities after supply-chain shocks. (Semiconductors & Advanced Computing, Artificial Intelligence, Quantum Technologies)

Reconstruction notes (deepseek-v4-pro): Main uncertainties concern 1996 scores for fast-moving critical technologies; Finland's strengths were concentrated in telecoms, forestry and total defence, so broad groups may overstate unrelated capabilities. Event mapping compresses EU and economic shocks into library categories, and the small open economy's transmission via trade and Russian links introduces more uncertainty than for large states. Some capability definitions overlap, making relative small-country comparisons with global leaders approximate.

Report

Written from the simulation record by the loop's narrator. Every figure names the query it came from, in square brackets.

Batch cycle-002. Model 0.1.0, graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0. 30 simulations, seeds 1 to 30; probes on 10. Every figure is a distribution over simulations of a structural model with seed parameter values; it shows what the model implies under these settings, not what will happen. Other nations are frozen at their 2026 ratings. No reconstructed historical data is used in this experiment.

Headline

Finland played 30 rounds from 1996 under the scripted method, with scripted events, 30 times. Its capability index moved from 15.66 to a median of 15.42 (−0.24), with 90 per cent of simulations between 15.41 and 15.42 [experiment_objectives].

Starting position

In 1996 the nation ranks 7 on the index against the frozen field, holds 5 of nine domains at Tier 1 and has a tier rank of 3. Its base income is 958 credits a year, calibrated so that its 2026 position is affordable with headroom for investment.

What was decided

A simulation spent a median of 3,339 credits on moves. The five groups that took most were National Resilience & Crisis Management (build, 476 credits, 14.3 per cent); Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (build, 356 credits, 10.7 per cent); Force Generation & Mobilisation (build, 356 credits, 10.7 per cent); Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship (build, 282 credits, 8.4 per cent); Advanced Education (build, 239 credits, 7.2 per cent) [experiment_decisions_by_group]. By mode: build 94 per cent, partner 6 per cent [experiment_decisions_by_group]. Concentration of spending (HHI) had a median of 0.077, and the most repeated action appeared in 60 per cent of rounds.

The leading domain by period: rounds 1 to 5, Human Capital; rounds 6 to 10, Production & Innovation; rounds 11 to 15, Production & Innovation; rounds 16 to 20, Governance & Integrity; rounds 21 to 25, Governance & Integrity; rounds 26 to 30, National Security [experiment_spend_by_period].

What the world did

A median simulation saw 5 shocks and 1 upside events. The most damaging per firing were S03 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −22.5 points each); S10 (30 firings in 30 simulations, −12.7 points each); S01 (60 firings in 30 simulations, −12.1 points each) [experiment_shocks]. Upside events fired 30 times across all simulations [experiment_shocks].

The groups that lost most to shocks, per simulation: Economic Leverage & Dependence −2.30; Trade Facilitation & Logistics −1.96; Export Capability & Sophistication −1.78; Global Value Chain Position −1.76 [experiment_shock_damage_by_group].

The edges that carried most change through the graph, per simulation: Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Social Infrastructure (+0.09 points); Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance to Force Generation & Mobilisation (+0.08 points); Advanced Education to Research Talent & Knowledge Creation (+0.34 points) [experiment_propagation_by_edge].

Where it ended

At 2026 the median rank is 9 (5th to 95th percentile 9 to 9), the median count of Tier 1 domains 6 (6 to 6) and the median tier rank 2; the resilient score, the mean score sum over simulations, is 1,125 [experiment_objectives].

Tier 1 probability changed most in: national security (0 to 100 per cent of simulations) [experiment_tiers_by_round].

Why

Without shocks the index ends +1.044 higher on average, so the shocks cost about 1.044 index points [experiment_probe_attribution].

Holding instead of following this method changes the index by −0.755: that is the method's worth against doing nothing [experiment_probe_attribution].

Removing any single one of the five largest actions changes the index by between 0.000 and 0.000, for example 2022 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (48 credits) [experiment_probe_attribution]. The largest actions by credits come late, when income is highest, and are rarely the most valuable.

Removing the largest shock of a simulation raises the index by +0.317 on average [experiment_probe_attribution].

The replay probe reproduces the simulations exactly (index change 0.000000), so the attributions are clean [experiment_probe_attribution].

Surprises

saturation_high (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 3 groups).

saturation_low (warn): 100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups).

retired_words (warn): e4-fin/report.md: 'simulations' 2 time(s), first near line 39; use 'simulations'.

The simulation furthest from the median (seed 18) ends −0.01 from it, with 5 shocks and 1 upside events [experiment_outlier_simulations].

Comparison

This is the baseline (hold) experiment, or there is none for this nation in the batch.

Against history: from a reconstructed index of 15.66 the model ends at 15.42, where the 2026 ratings put it at 14.52. Group scores miss by 1.83 points on average, against 1.72 for assuming nothing changed (skill −0.07); the change in each domain has the right sign in 44 per cent of domains. Furthest below history: trade and investment (−0.73); furthest above: critical technology (+2.38) [experiment_against_history]. The starting position is reconstructed, so part of the error is the reconstruction's.

What each decision and shock was worth

Counterfactual probes on the first 10 seeds: the same simulations with one thing changed, paired seed by seed. A removed decision or shock is taken out and the other decisions replayed unchanged, so the difference is that item's worth.

Probe	Index	Score sum	Tier 1	For example
Hold instead of the method	−0.755	−55.8	−3.00
No shocks	+1.044	+73.0	0.00
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0	0.00
Without the 1st largest decision	−0.000	−0.0	0.00	2022 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (48 credits)
Without the 2nd largest decision	0.000	0.0	0.00	2022 build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (48 credits)
Without the 3rd largest decision	0.000	0.0	0.00	2022 build National Resilience & Crisis Management (48 credits)
Without the 4th largest decision	0.000	0.0	0.00	2023 build Force Generation & Mobilisation (48 credits)
Without the 5th largest decision	0.000	0.0	0.00	2023 build Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations (48 credits)
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.317	+22.9	0.00	2022 S03 (-22.5 points)
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.203	+14.1	0.00	2022 S01 (-13.3 points)
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.201	+14.0	0.00	2020 S10 (-12.7 points)

Simulations

Three simulations told round by round, each on its own page: the one nearest the median index at the horizon, and those nearest the 10th and the 90th percentile. Every one of the 30 is listed with its outcome on the simulations page.

All 30 simulations

Events

How often each shock and upside event began across the simulations. Shocks come from the ten downside scenarios and upside events from the ten upside ones, at their yearly likelihood.

Event	Kind	Simulations	Mean round	Points
Trade bloc rupture S01	Shock	100 per cent	22.0	−12.1
Global funding seizure S02	Shock	100 per cent	12.0	−11.0
Regional war spillover S03	Shock	100 per cent	26.0	−22.5
Severe pandemic S10	Shock	100 per cent	24.0	−12.7
Market access opening S12	Upside	100 per cent	8.0	+11.5

Groups across simulations

Every capability group: its position, and its median and spread at the horizon across the simulations, with what the method spent on it.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Levels invested	Credits
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	14.08	19.37 19.35 to 19.40	+5.29	7.45	282
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	15.83	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+4.17	6.20	357
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	14.27	18.30 18.27 to 18.31	+4.03	4.68	133
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	15.81	18.71 18.69 to 18.72	+2.90	4.10	119
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	11.16	13.97 13.95 to 13.99	+2.81	3.58	70
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	11.52	13.59 13.53 to 13.65	+2.07	2.65	70
Advanced Education	Human Capital	17.81	19.69 19.68 to 19.70	+1.88	5.25	239
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	17.53	19.31 19.28 to 19.33	+1.78	3.01	119
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	18.24	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.76	2.58	133
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	17.92	19.61 19.60 to 19.62	+1.69	1.92	77
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	18.74	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.26	2.72	357
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	18.83	20.00 20.00 to 20.00	+1.17	5.16	476
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	11.99	12.97 12.95 to 12.99	+0.98	2.12	70
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	19.07	19.41 19.40 to 19.42	+0.34	1.71	119
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	16.93	17.11 17.06 to 17.16	+0.18	2.00	77
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	19.03	19.17 19.17 to 19.18	+0.14	2.89	239
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	17.02	17.11 17.07 to 17.15	+0.09	0.00	0
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	19.58	19.66 19.64 to 19.67	+0.08	3.87	162
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	19.60	19.35 19.34 to 19.36	−0.25	0.00	0
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	19.25	18.99 18.98 to 19.00	−0.26	0.00	0
Foundational Education	Human Capital	18.13	17.84 17.82 to 17.85	−0.29	0.00	0
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	18.72	18.37 18.36 to 18.38	−0.35	0.00	0
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	19.05	18.70 18.69 to 18.70	−0.35	0.00	0
Health System Capability	Human Capital	17.45	17.09 17.06 to 17.12	−0.36	0.00	0
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	18.58	18.22 18.21 to 18.22	−0.36	0.00	0
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.36	0.00 0.00 to 0.00	−0.36	0.00	0
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	17.62	17.25 17.25 to 17.25	−0.37	0.00	0
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	18.03	17.64 17.62 to 17.65	−0.39	0.00	0
Population Health	Human Capital	16.18	15.79 15.78 to 15.79	−0.39	0.00	0
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	19.10	18.67 18.65 to 18.70	−0.43	0.00	0
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	17.84	17.41 17.39 to 17.43	−0.43	0.00	0
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	19.45	18.99 18.96 to 19.01	−0.46	0.00	0
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.03	14.55 14.48 to 14.61	−0.48	0.00	0
Land Power	National Security	16.27	15.75 15.70 to 15.78	−0.52	0.00	0
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	14.27	13.72 13.71 to 13.73	−0.55	0.00	0
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	12.80	12.25 12.23 to 12.26	−0.55	0.00	0
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	15.75	15.18 15.17 to 15.20	−0.57	0.00	0
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	17.29	16.71 16.69 to 16.73	−0.58	0.00	0
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	20.00	19.40 19.39 to 19.41	−0.60	3.74	239
Air Power	National Security	15.72	15.06 15.05 to 15.07	−0.66	0.00	0
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	13.35	12.68 12.62 to 12.72	−0.67	0.00	0
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	15.52	14.81 14.80 to 14.83	−0.71	0.00	0
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	14.09	13.37 13.34 to 13.39	−0.72	0.00	0
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	17.32	16.57 16.52 to 16.60	−0.75	0.00	0
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	11.52	10.72 10.71 to 10.73	−0.80	0.00	0
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	16.65	15.85 15.80 to 15.90	−0.80	0.00	0
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	14.12	13.28 13.23 to 13.33	−0.84	0.00	0
Space Operations	National Security	6.97	6.13 6.11 to 6.15	−0.84	0.00	0
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	7.60	6.75 6.74 to 6.76	−0.85	0.00	0
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	16.08	15.21 15.17 to 15.25	−0.87	0.00	0
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	16.39	15.48 15.45 to 15.53	−0.91	0.00	0
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	14.88	13.96 13.92 to 13.98	−0.92	0.00	0
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	13.78	12.85 12.84 to 12.87	−0.93	0.00	0
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	19.46	18.53 18.51 to 18.54	−0.93	0.00	0
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	16.06	15.10 15.04 to 15.15	−0.96	0.00	0
Maritime Power	National Security	12.82	11.81 11.80 to 11.82	−1.01	0.00	0
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	15.49	14.48 14.47 to 14.49	−1.01	0.00	0
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	12.82	11.76 11.75 to 11.77	−1.06	0.00	0
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	15.29	14.19 14.13 to 14.25	−1.10	0.00	0
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	18.37	17.27 17.25 to 17.29	−1.10	0.00	0
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	14.66	13.46 13.44 to 13.47	−1.20	0.00	0
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	8.08	6.88 6.86 to 6.90	−1.20	0.00	0
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	11.58	10.35 10.32 to 10.36	−1.23	0.00	0
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	14.18	12.94 12.92 to 12.96	−1.24	0.00	0
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	15.19	13.88 13.87 to 13.88	−1.31	0.00	0
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	14.09	12.76 12.75 to 12.77	−1.33	0.00	0
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	16.35	14.91 14.83 to 14.98	−1.44	0.00	0
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	18.13	16.66 16.60 to 16.69	−1.47	0.00	0
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	13.05	11.58 11.56 to 11.59	−1.47	0.00	0
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	16.86	15.28 15.27 to 15.31	−1.58	0.00	0
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	16.80	15.19 15.17 to 15.20	−1.61	0.00	0
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	17.32	15.60 15.58 to 15.64	−1.72	0.00	0
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	12.15	9.91 9.87 to 9.93	−2.24	0.00	0

Checks

The automated checks run on this experiment before anything was written about it. A warning is a candidate finding for the improvement loop.

passcredits_conservedlargest gap between credits in and credits accounted for: 9.1e-13
passscores_in_boundsscores range 0.000 to 20.000
passno_nans0 missing values in the trajectory and objectives
passprobe_replay_reproducesthe recorded moves played back reproduce the simulation to within 0.0e+00 points (10 simulations)
passledger_balancesthe edge ledger sums to the propagated change to within 1.0e-06 points
passmove_without_shocklargest one-year move in a group with no shock landing: 0.98 points; 0% of simulations have one above 3
passtier_jumplargest gain in one domain within five years: 1 tiers (0 simulations above 2)
passall_tier1_from_outside_top10starting rank 7; 0 simulations reach Tier 1 in all nine domains
warnsaturation_high100% of simulations end with a group at 20 that did not start there (median 3 groups)
warnsaturation_low100% of simulations end with a group at 0 that did not start there (median 1 groups)
passspend_concentrationmedian concentration of spending across groups (HHI) 0.077; most funded group soft.governance_and_integrity.national_resilience_and_crisis_management
passsame_actionthe most repeated move (group and mode) appears in a median 60% of rounds

Settings and versions

Experiment cycle-002.e4-fin. Every simulation records the model, graph and parameter versions, the scenario, the method and its seed, so it can be reproduced exactly.

Nation: Finland (FIN)
Position: A reconstructed 1996 position, aligned to the Index's scale
Method: Scripted. Actions fixed in advance by the experiment: for a backcast, the nation's historical pathway.
Scenario: Scripted events: Market access opening in year 8, Global funding seizure in year 12, Trade bloc rupture in year 18, Severe pandemic in year 24, Regional war spillover in year 26, Trade bloc rupture in year 26
Objective: Capability index, the primary objective the experiment is judged on; every other objective is reported beside it
Horizon: 30 rounds, 1996 to 2026
Simulations: 30 seeds, 1 to 30. Every method in the batch faces the same draws for the same seed.
Graph elasticities: Drawn for each simulation, uniformly within each edge’s bracket
Income: Base credits 958.3 a round, moving with the economic groups
Versions: Model 0.1.0, Capability Dependency Graph 0.2.0, parameters 0.1.0
Batch: Backcast 1996-2026 (cycle-002), cycle 2 of the improvement loop
Runtime: 4.4 seconds in all; 1099 microseconds a round

Not a forecast: Every figure is a distribution over the simulations of a structural model, reported to compare methods and test the model. None is a prediction of what a nation will do or become.
Structural parameters: Costs, decay, vulnerability and credits are structural seed values with low or medium confidence, set by domain with single-group exceptions. Five groups have no defensible value in a single-nation model and are flagged in the parameter tables.
Other nations are frozen: One nation is simulated at a time. Every other nation stays at its 2026 rating, so rank and tiers are measured against a still field; where the simulated nation rises past others their own tiers are not re-sorted.
Starting depth and mode are defaults: The position is the National Capability Index ratings. How institutionalised each capability is, and how much was built, bought or partnered, have no data behind them yet and start from structural defaults.
Credits are calibrated, not measured: Each nation’s income is set so that its position is affordable with headroom that rises with its fiscal capacity. It is not yet fiscal capacity as a share of GDP.