Median simulation · cycle-002.e4-idn

Simulation 22

Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 22: median simulation of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.28 at the 1996 position, 6.28 in 2026; 99 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 22

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 28 (a poor simulation (10th percentile)), 30 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 6.28 (−1.99); From 8.28
Rank by index: 93; From 64
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10	Global funding seizure	7.91 −0.363
1998	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10	Legitimacy rupture	7.50 −0.410
1999	Build Financial Infrastructure 9 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 9 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9		7.52 +0.019
2000	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 2		7.54 +0.019
2001	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.56 +0.018
2002	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.58 +0.016
2003	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.59 +0.019
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Internal Security & Order 0	Core disaster	7.08 −0.517
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		7.08 +0.006
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1		7.08 −0.005
2007	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 7 Build Early Childhood Development 1		7.08 +0.002
2008	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 7 Build Early Childhood Development 1	Global funding seizure	6.94 −0.138
2009	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		6.95 +0.005
2010	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.96 +0.010
2011	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.97 +0.011
2012	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.98 +0.011
2013	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		6.99 +0.010
2014	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 2		7.00 +0.012
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.02 +0.014
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.03 +0.014
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.04 +0.014
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 1	Trade bloc rupture	7.00 −0.048
2019	No actions		6.94 −0.056
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	6.32 −0.622
2021	Build Maritime Power 6 Build Resource Infrastructure 3		6.31 −0.005
2022	Build Maritime Power 6 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.30 −0.011
2023	Build Maritime Power 6 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.29 −0.009
2024	Build Maritime Power 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.29 −0.007
2025	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Build Digital & AI Competence 1		6.28 −0.005
2026	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Build Digital & AI Competence 1		6.28 +0.003

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Information & Influence	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Financial Strength	16	17	19	19	18	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Production & Innovation	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	19	19	19	19	19	19	19
Trade & Investment	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.642	−45.3
No shocks	+3.063	+217.1
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.6
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.004	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.004	+0.4
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.635	+44.8
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.795	+57.2
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.602	+42.9

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.70	11.25	+2.55	+3.75	0.00	−1.24	+0.05
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	10.68	+2.11	+3.37	0.00	−1.25	−0.01
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	13.11	+1.83	+3.56	−0.01	−1.67	−0.05
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	11.65	+1.40	+3.34	−0.01	−1.55	−0.38
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	8.81	+0.24	+3.39	−0.01	−3.15	+0.01
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	8.91	+0.16	+3.40	−0.01	−3.14	−0.09
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.53	−0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	6.09	−0.27	+1.53	0.00	−1.76	−0.03
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.67	−0.35	+1.40	0.00	−1.74	−0.01
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	6.50	−0.44	+1.32	0.00	−1.75	−0.01
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	7.76	−0.81	+0.81	−0.01	−1.35	−0.27
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.94	8.96	−0.98	+3.14	−0.01	−3.83	−0.28
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	6.76	−0.98	+0.54	0.00	−1.45	−0.06
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	6.72	−1.00	0.00	0.00	−1.34	+0.34
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	7.42	−1.10	+0.07	0.00	−1.33	+0.17
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	6.19	−1.21	+1.27	0.00	−2.17	−0.30
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	9.06	−1.31	+0.37	−0.01	−1.51	−0.16
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	2.69	−1.35	+0.20	−0.01	−1.52	−0.02
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.34	−1.49	0.00	0.00	−1.34	−0.15
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	9.85	−1.53	+0.32	−0.01	−1.50	−0.34
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.75	−1.59	0.00	0.00	−1.56	−0.03
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.06	−1.59	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	−0.23
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	1.83	−1.61	0.00	0.00	−1.53	−0.08
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.10	−1.61	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	−0.26
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.08	−1.62	0.00	−0.01	−1.41	−0.20
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	4.23	−1.63	0.00	−0.01	−1.48	−0.15
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	2.42	−1.64	0.00	−0.01	−1.51	−0.12
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	7.80	−1.66	+0.08	0.00	−1.30	−0.43
Air Power	National Security	7.98	6.31	−1.67	0.00	−0.01	−1.36	−0.30
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	2.83	−1.69	0.00	−0.01	−1.50	−0.17
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.25	−1.69	0.00	−0.01	−1.39	−0.30
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.70	−1.70	0.00	−0.01	−1.31	−0.38
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.45	−1.73	0.00	−0.01	−1.42	−0.30
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	8.03	−1.78	+1.17	−0.01	−2.11	−0.84
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	6.77	−1.81	0.00	−0.01	−1.55	−0.26
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	3.09	−1.82	0.00	−0.01	−1.71	−0.10
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	1.24	−1.83	0.00	0.00	−1.75	−0.07
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	8.73	−1.88	+0.01	0.00	−1.67	−0.22
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	3.55	−1.88	0.00	−0.01	−1.49	−0.39
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.12	−1.91	0.00	−0.01	−2.05	+0.14
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.83	3.86	−1.97	0.00	−0.01	−1.81	−0.15
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.19	9.19	−2.00	0.00	−0.01	−1.50	−0.48
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	5.27	−2.01	0.00	−0.01	−2.06	+0.06
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	5.89	−2.02	0.00	0.00	−1.57	−0.45
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	9.28	−2.06	+0.61	0.00	−2.56	−0.10
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	6.33	−2.15	0.00	0.00	−1.74	−0.41
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.47	−2.28	0.00	−0.01	−2.00	−0.27
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	8.78	−2.42	0.00	−0.01	−2.16	−0.26
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	6.21	−2.43	+0.17	−0.01	−2.35	−0.24
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	2.73	−2.47	0.00	−0.01	−2.34	−0.13
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	4.14	−2.47	0.00	0.00	−2.08	−0.39
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	5.76	−2.50	0.00	0.00	−2.17	−0.33
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.06	−2.55	+0.14	−0.01	−2.35	−0.33
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	7.02	−2.55	0.00	0.00	−2.08	−0.47
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	9.11	−2.57	0.00	−0.01	−1.84	−0.72
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	4.03	−2.64	0.00	0.00	−2.41	−0.22
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	5.73	−2.72	0.00	−0.01	−2.36	−0.35
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	6.18	−2.93	0.00	0.00	−2.38	−0.55
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	6.85	−2.98	0.00	−0.01	−2.78	−0.19
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	5.28	−3.14	0.00	0.00	−2.78	−0.36
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	4.69	−3.30	0.00	−0.01	−3.22	−0.07
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	7.59	−3.35	0.00	−0.01	−2.97	−0.37
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	5.86	−3.41	0.00	0.00	−2.67	−0.74
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	5.95	−3.41	0.00	−0.01	−2.99	−0.41
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	6.06	−3.42	0.00	−0.01	−3.03	−0.39
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.47	−3.47	0.00	−0.01	−3.13	−0.34
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	5.49	−3.49	0.00	−0.01	−3.04	−0.45
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	4.12	−3.66	0.00	0.00	−3.09	−0.57
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	4.22	−3.91	0.00	−0.01	−3.63	−0.28
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	5.79	−4.04	0.00	0.00	−4.07	+0.03
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	9.32	5.21	−4.11	0.00	−0.01	−3.91	−0.20
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	4.78	−4.49	0.00	−0.01	−4.26	−0.22
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	4.46	−5.86	0.00	0.00	−5.20	−0.66

Seed 22 of experiment cycle-002.e4-idn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.