A poor simulation (10th percentile) · cycle-002.e4-idn

Simulation 28

Indonesia, scripted, 30 years from 1996, seed 28: a poor simulation (10th percentile) of the experiment's 30. Capability index 8.28 at the 1996 position, 6.26 in 2026; 99 actions over 30 rounds and 6 shocks.

Model 0.1.0 · graph 0.2.0 · parameters 0.1.0 · seed 28

The experiment · The other representative simulations: 22 (median simulation), 30 (a good simulation (90th percentile))

Outcome

From the 1996 position to 2026.

Capability index: 6.26 (−2.01); From 8.28
Rank by index: 93; From 64
Domains at Tier 1: 0; From 0
Events: 6 shocks; 0 upside events

Trajectory by domain

The mean score of each domain by round, with a dashed marker at each round a shock (red) or an upside event (green) began. Rest on a domain to bring it forward.

ShockUpside event

Capability index by round

Pathway, round by round

Every decision of the scripted method: its actions (a mode, a group and the credits spent), and the events that began that round. Each round has its own page: the state it came in with, the decision, the shocks, what moved through the graph and the state it left.

Round	Decision	Events	Index
1997	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 10	Global funding seizure	7.91 −0.363
1998	Build Financial Infrastructure 10 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 10 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 10 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 10	Legitimacy rupture	7.50 −0.411
1999	Build Financial Infrastructure 9 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 9 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 9 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 9		7.52 +0.018
2000	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.54 +0.017
2001	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.55 +0.016
2002	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.57 +0.014
2003	Build Financial Infrastructure 8 Build Monetary & Currency Capability 8 Build Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 Build Financial Stability & Crisis Management 8 Build Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 1		7.59 +0.018
2004	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 Build Internal Security & Order 0	Core disaster	7.07 −0.518
2005	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7		7.07 +0.006
2006	Build Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 Build Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7 Build Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7 Build Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1		7.07 −0.006
2007	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 7 Build Early Childhood Development 1		7.07 +0.001
2008	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 7 Build Early Childhood Development 1	Global funding seizure	6.93 −0.139
2009	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.93 +0.004
2010	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.94 +0.009
2011	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.95 +0.010
2012	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.96 +0.010
2013	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.97 +0.010
2014	Build Foundational Education 7 Build Advanced Education 7 Build Technical & Vocational Skills 3		6.99 +0.012
2015	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.00 +0.014
2016	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.01 +0.014
2017	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2		7.03 +0.014
2018	Build Transport Infrastructure 7 Build Energy Infrastructure 7 Build Communications & Digital Infrastructure 2	Trade bloc rupture	6.98 −0.048
2019	No actions		6.92 −0.055
2020	No actions	Severe pandemic	6.30 −0.622
2021	Build Maritime Power 6 Build Resource Infrastructure 3		6.30 −0.005
2022	Build Maritime Power 6 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.29 −0.013
2023	Build Maritime Power 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.28 −0.009
2024	Build Maritime Power 5 Build Resource Infrastructure 2		6.27 −0.008
2025	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Build Digital & AI Competence 1		6.26 −0.005
2026	Build Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 Build Technology Adoption & Diffusion 2 Build Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2 Build Digital & AI Competence 1		6.26 +0.002

Credits

What each round's credits went on: maintenance, the three modes, and what was carried over.

Tiers by round

Each domain's tier against the frozen field, round by round: Tier 1 green, Tier 2 blue, Tier 3 amber, below that grey.

Domain	1996					2001					2006					2011					2016					2021					2026
Critical Technology	8	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Strategic Infrastructure	6	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
National Security	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Human Capital	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	12	12	11	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Information & Influence	7	8	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Governance & Integrity	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Financial Strength	16	17	19	19	18	17	17	16	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	19	19	19	19	19
Production & Innovation	14	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Trade & Investment	11	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	14	15	15	15	15	15	15	15

Probes

What the experiment's counterfactual probes found, paired seed by seed on its first 10 seeds: the same simulation with one thing changed, the difference at the horizon.

Probe	Index	Score sum
Hold instead of the method	−0.642	−45.3
No shocks	+3.063	+217.1
Replay of the recorded actions (must change nothing)	0.000	0.0
Without the 1st largest decision	+0.009	+0.6
Without the 2nd largest decision	+0.004	+0.4
Without the 3rd largest decision	+0.003	+0.4
Without the 4th largest decision	+0.004	+0.4
Without the 5th largest decision	−0.003	−0.2
Without the 1st largest shock	+0.635	+44.8
Without the 2nd largest shock	+0.795	+57.2
Without the 3rd largest shock	+0.602	+42.9

Every group over the simulation

Where each group started and ended, and what moved it: levels invested, decay, events and changes arriving through the graph. The parts do not quite sum to the change where a score met 0 or 20.

Find a group

Domain

73 of 73 groups

Capability group	Domain	1996	2026	Change	Invested	Decay	Events	Graph
Advanced Education	Human Capital	8.70	11.29	+2.59	+3.73	0.00	−1.24	+0.10
Technical & Vocational Skills	Human Capital	8.57	10.82	+2.25	+3.54	0.00	−1.24	−0.04
Financial Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.28	13.06	+1.78	+3.56	−0.01	−1.67	−0.11
Foundational Education	Human Capital	10.25	11.56	+1.31	+3.33	0.00	−1.55	−0.47
Financial Stability & Crisis Management	Financial Strength	8.57	8.79	+0.22	+3.38	0.00	−3.15	+0.01
Financial Regulation & Integrity	Financial Strength	8.75	8.87	+0.12	+3.40	0.00	−3.15	−0.13
Nuclear Deterrence	National Security	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	−1.53	−0.03
Political Institutions & Civic Participation	Governance & Integrity	6.36	6.09	−0.27	+1.52	0.00	−1.76	−0.03
Justice System & Fundamental Rights	Governance & Integrity	7.02	6.66	−0.36	+1.39	0.00	−1.74	−0.01
Transparency, Oversight & Accountability	Governance & Integrity	6.94	6.51	−0.43	+1.33	0.00	−1.75	−0.01
Maritime Power	National Security	8.57	7.72	−0.85	+0.81	−0.01	−1.35	−0.30
Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption	Governance & Integrity	7.74	6.76	−0.98	+0.54	0.00	−1.45	−0.07
Monetary & Currency Capability	Financial Strength	9.94	8.89	−1.05	+3.14	0.00	−3.84	−0.35
Digital & AI Competence	Human Capital	8.52	7.47	−1.05	+0.07	0.00	−1.33	+0.20
Research Talent & Knowledge Creation	Human Capital	7.72	6.64	−1.08	0.00	0.00	−1.34	+0.27
Communications & Digital Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	10.37	9.08	−1.29	+0.43	−0.01	−1.51	−0.19
Energy Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.40	6.09	−1.31	+1.27	0.00	−2.17	−0.40
Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies	Critical Technology	4.04	2.67	−1.37	+0.19	0.00	−1.52	−0.04
Intelligence & Assessment	National Security	8.65	7.19	−1.46	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	−0.10
Lifelong Learning & Reskilling	Human Capital	7.83	6.36	−1.47	0.00	0.00	−1.34	−0.13
Strategic Strike & Missile Defence	National Security	5.70	4.11	−1.59	0.00	0.00	−1.41	−0.17
Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls	Governance & Integrity	8.34	6.75	−1.59	0.00	0.00	−1.56	−0.04
Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment	National Security	8.71	7.11	−1.60	0.00	−0.01	−1.35	−0.25
Transport Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.81	8.19	−1.62	+1.16	0.00	−2.11	−0.66
Sensing, Timing & Navigation	Critical Technology	4.06	2.40	−1.66	0.00	0.00	−1.52	−0.14
Quantum Technologies	Critical Technology	3.44	1.77	−1.67	0.00	0.00	−1.53	−0.14
Space Technologies	Critical Technology	5.86	4.19	−1.67	0.00	−0.01	−1.48	−0.19
Early Childhood Development	Human Capital	9.46	7.79	−1.67	+0.10	0.00	−1.30	−0.47
Space Operations	National Security	5.18	3.48	−1.70	0.00	0.00	−1.42	−0.27
Robotics & Autonomous Systems	Critical Technology	4.52	2.81	−1.71	0.00	0.00	−1.51	−0.19
Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations	National Security	6.94	5.22	−1.72	0.00	−0.01	−1.39	−0.32
Air Power	National Security	7.98	6.24	−1.74	0.00	−0.01	−1.36	−0.38
Advanced Manufacturing	Strategic Infrastructure	8.58	6.82	−1.76	0.00	0.00	−1.55	−0.20
Advanced Materials & Manufacturing	Critical Technology	4.91	3.12	−1.79	0.00	−0.01	−1.71	−0.08
Resource Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.38	9.56	−1.82	+0.34	−0.01	−1.50	−0.65
Semiconductors & Advanced Computing	Critical Technology	3.07	1.24	−1.83	0.00	0.00	−1.75	−0.07
Internal Security & Order	Governance & Integrity	10.61	8.76	−1.85	+0.02	0.00	−1.67	−0.19
Culture, Language & Education Diplomacy	Information & Influence	8.03	6.15	−1.88	0.00	−0.01	−2.05	+0.17
Land Power	National Security	10.40	8.52	−1.88	0.00	−0.01	−1.31	−0.56
Artificial Intelligence	Critical Technology	5.43	3.54	−1.89	0.00	−0.01	−1.49	−0.41
Energy Technologies	Critical Technology	5.83	3.85	−1.98	0.00	−0.01	−1.81	−0.17
Space, Aerospace & Defence Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	7.91	5.89	−2.02	0.00	0.00	−1.57	−0.45
Diaspora & Global Communities	Information & Influence	7.28	5.26	−2.02	0.00	0.00	−2.07	+0.05
Agriculture & Food Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	11.19	9.11	−2.08	0.00	−0.01	−1.51	−0.57
Government Effectiveness & Public Administration	Governance & Integrity	11.34	9.26	−2.08	+0.61	0.00	−2.57	−0.12
Population Health	Human Capital	8.48	6.34	−2.14	0.00	0.00	−1.74	−0.40
Alliances & Security Cooperation	Information & Influence	9.75	7.48	−2.27	0.00	−0.01	−2.01	−0.26
Technology Adoption & Diffusion	Production & Innovation	8.64	6.19	−2.45	+0.17	−0.01	−2.36	−0.26
Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks	Information & Influence	11.20	8.73	−2.47	0.00	−0.01	−2.16	−0.30
Development Cooperation & Global Assistance	Information & Influence	6.61	4.11	−2.50	0.00	0.00	−2.08	−0.41
Biotechnology & Health Technologies	Critical Technology	5.20	2.68	−2.52	0.00	−0.01	−2.34	−0.17
Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	8.26	5.72	−2.54	0.00	0.00	−2.17	−0.37
Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship	Production & Innovation	8.61	6.04	−2.57	+0.14	−0.01	−2.36	−0.35
National Resilience & Crisis Management	Governance & Integrity	9.57	6.95	−2.62	0.00	0.00	−2.08	−0.54
Structural Transformation & Complexity	Production & Innovation	8.45	5.80	−2.65	0.00	−0.01	−2.36	−0.29
Innovation & Commercialisation	Production & Innovation	6.67	3.98	−2.69	0.00	0.00	−2.41	−0.28
Digital & Services Trade	Trade & Investment	9.83	6.89	−2.94	0.00	−0.01	−2.79	−0.14
Force Generation & Mobilisation	National Security	11.68	8.72	−2.96	0.00	−0.01	−1.84	−1.12
Health System Capability	Human Capital	9.11	6.14	−2.97	0.00	0.00	−2.38	−0.59
Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power	Financial Strength	8.42	5.43	−2.99	0.00	0.00	−2.79	−0.21
Information Environment & Strategic Communication	Information & Influence	7.99	4.67	−3.32	0.00	0.00	−3.22	−0.09
Trade Policy & Market Access	Trade & Investment	10.94	7.59	−3.35	0.00	−0.01	−2.98	−0.37
Industrial & Sectoral Base	Production & Innovation	9.94	6.57	−3.37	0.00	−0.01	−3.13	−0.23
Global Value Chain Position	Trade & Investment	9.48	6.02	−3.46	0.00	−0.01	−3.03	−0.43
Economic Output & Productivity	Production & Innovation	9.36	5.89	−3.47	0.00	−0.01	−2.99	−0.47
Economic Leverage & Dependence	Trade & Investment	8.98	5.36	−3.62	0.00	−0.01	−3.05	−0.57
Export Capability & Sophistication	Trade & Investment	7.78	4.12	−3.66	0.00	0.00	−3.09	−0.57
Social Infrastructure	Strategic Infrastructure	9.27	5.54	−3.73	0.00	0.00	−2.68	−1.05
Labour & Employment	Production & Innovation	8.13	4.20	−3.93	0.00	0.00	−3.63	−0.28
Financial System Depth & Access	Financial Strength	9.83	5.81	−4.02	0.00	0.00	−4.07	+0.05
Investment Attraction & Projection	Trade & Investment	9.32	5.29	−4.03	0.00	0.00	−3.91	−0.12
Trade Facilitation & Logistics	Trade & Investment	9.27	4.74	−4.53	0.00	0.00	−4.27	−0.26
Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance	Financial Strength	10.32	4.39	−5.93	0.00	0.00	−5.20	−0.73

Seed 28 of experiment cycle-002.e4-idn. The simulation can be reproduced exactly from the experiment's configuration, its versions and this seed.